The crowd cheers after Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) scored during the first half of Game 2 in a second-round NBA playoff basketball series against the Memphis Grizzlies, Tuesday, May 5, 2015, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
This is always a bitter-sweet time during the daily fantasy NBA season. Interest level is at an all time high (adios, football!), but the impending all-star break means there will be nearly a week with no DFS to play. A week! That's some shameful stuff. I think this is actually my first picks article until we get back from the break, so know this: I'll miss you dearly. Where were we, here? Ah yes, basketball. It's a short slate today with some very weird teams going. Let's see how I do!
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Nobody: Okay, looking at the point guard options today is giving me a stomach ache. Steph Curry against Patrick Beverley for a zillion dollars? I might wind up going there. Let's see who else is out there first.
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 28.6 DK Proj. Pts - 30.58
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 18.15 DK Proj. Pts - 19.53
Puke. The projection system "likes" both of these guys for the same reason - it's a price and opportunity mismatch. Neto has been playing increased minutes with Burke out, and has been pretty reasonable - posting a handful of 5x points per dollar games when he plays 32+ minutes. As for Williams, his price ticked downward in a streak of games where he was playing hurt, but last game has me feeling very confident in him overall. The Jazz are generally a terrible match-up due to their slowest pace and great interior defense, but Williams is just 10-15% too cheap here.
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 46.86 DK Proj. Pts - 50.59
With some trepidation, given the salary and the match-up. I'm going to make every excuse to go cheap today, but Steph has been shooting a ton recently (53 shots in his last 2 games) and this is sort of a revenge game for Cam Newton. Seriously! And in spite of Patrick Beverley's defensive wizardry, the Rockets have still allowed an above average number of fantasy points to opposing point guards this season on account of their fast pace. I'm going to circle back around on this tomorrow to see if I actually want to play the guy. We shall see.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 25.36 DK Proj. Pts - 27.47
If you're into safety at the shooting guard position today, our projection system argues that it starts and stops with Arron Afflalo. The man is playing 40+ minutes per game right now, and has paid between 4.4x and 6.2x points per dollar in his last 4 games. The Wizards are one of the few defensive poor teams on the slate as well, having allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. It's hard to imagine building a 50/50 lineup without him today.
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 31.62 DK Proj. Pts - 35.19
Here's the Warrior I really want to play. Thompson gets a great match-up here against James Harden and the Rockets, who have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. Thompson has been doing the steady but not unspectacular thing so far this season, but my guess is that the Warriors are smart enough to find this pretty gaping hole in the defense. Look for Thompson to shoot a ton of shots, here. Lots of safety and plenty of upside as well.
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 24.75 DK Proj. Pts - 26.76
Our projection system isn't exactly loving Hood on a points per dollar basis, here, but it's that kind of night. It's interesting, actually - Hood has only paid less than his projected total here once in the last 8 games, and Dallas is a slightly above average match-up for shooting guards. There's a chance our system is missing out on something here, but I'm just not sure what it is. The minutes look right to me, and when in doubt I tend to trust it over me.Still, it's hard to call Hood unsafe at these prices.
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Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 35.36 DK Proj. Pts - 36.83
Kawhi is an up and down player from a fantasy perspective, but that's largely on account of the Spurs' ability to blow teams out. Well, they'll likely be without Duncan again, and on the road against a decent Heat team that's at full strength. We're counting on Kawhi to play 34+ minutes here, but if he does, he ought to have a decent amount of safety for us today. That said, the Heat are a brutal match-up. They play slow, and have two tough defenders (Winslow and Deng) to track Kawhi down. Puke. I hate today.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 40.2 DK Proj. Pts - 42.41
I like Melo better than Kawhi if I could be sure he were healthy, but can I be so sure? He played 35 minutes in his last contest, and looked downright awful in the first quarter before turning in a fairly lousy performance. The big mark in his favor, here? The Wiz themselves. They play fast, yes, but they really can't defend the small forward spot. They've allowed the very most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season, and Melo's not one to balk at a great match-up like this. Maybe I should just move him to the top, here - it's tough to imagine not rolling with him given the lack of good big money options.
The cheap guys:
Corey Brewer and Harrison Barnes. Both are playing more minutes than you might realize, and this should be a fast paced game with lots of opportunities.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 32.91 DK Proj. Pts - 34.01
Back to back monster games for Porzingis, and the last one alongside Melo. Can we finally call him safe? Never. But, on a short slate like this, you sometimes have to take a few risks. The nice thing about playing Porzingis is that he can help you across three categories - he can put up big scoring numbers, big boards, and huge blocks when things break right. The Wizards have decent interior defense, but their fast PACE makes them an above average match-up for opposing big men. I'd be fine with the Zinger in any format today.
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 34.02 DK Proj. Pts - 34.47
Tops my safety list at the position today, but only because so many other guys have bad match-ups. Are you going to take Aldridge against the slow Heat? Bosh against the Spurs? Favors has been very solid since returning from injury, averaging a double double and exceeding 4 blocks in 3 of his last 4 games. The Mavs are basically a league average match-up, and while I don't love this play, I like it. And today, that's good enough for me.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 24.13 DK Proj. Pts - 25
After a nice streak of paying 5x+ points per dollar on these numbers, Jabari has laid two total eggs. But really, these were Murphy's Law games - he somehow didn't get any rebounds, AND didn't shoot much, AND missed almost all the shots he did take. If there were a bounceback game to be had, it'd be this match-up with the C's. They've allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season, and their fast pace means more rebounds and turnovers to be created. I'm intrigued, though it's hard to call this a safe play.
Also considered: Draymond Green - it's a great match-up, but the guy is seriously expensive for what he actually does out there. Also also considered: David West, if he starts again.
Opponent - NYK
FD Proj. Pts - 32.65 DK Proj. Pts - 33.18
Gortat tops my center plays by a mile today. He's got a lot of things going for him. First of all, he's quietly slipped back into his old 34 minute rotation, and his price hasn't quite climbed up to the $7,300 range it was in pre-injury. He's had back to back 13 rebound games, and the Wiz aren't in a spot where they'll likely be blown out. And the Knicks are basically a league average match-up for opposing centers. Excited yet? Yeah, it's a fairly boring day. But we'll take boring on a tough slate all day.
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 35.53 DK Proj. Pts - 36.15
My upside play at the position today. Dwight gets the upside nod here for a couple of reasons. First of all, this game should be seriously fast. Second, he's the one player who could stop the Warriors from going small, which should encourage the Rockets to leave him on the floor. His size and athleticism could pose a serious problem for Draymond. The last reason is the price - his minutes are erratic enough that the sites haven't priced him higher yet, but the Rockets left him out there for 40+ productive minutes in his last outing. I'll play Gortat in 50/50s, but stacking Dwight with some Warriors is going to be a solid big tourney strategy today.
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