Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose, front left, drives the lane and is fouled by Denver Nuggets center Jusuf Nurkic as Nuggets center Joffrey Lauvergne, right, defends during the second half of an NBA basketball game Friday, Feb. 5, 2016, in Denver. The Nuggets won 115-110. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Happy day after the Super Bowl! Or should I say, happy day after our lineups crushed in every conceivable format! Short slates are the best slates - many players made critical errors, but our happy little mix of players came through in all formats. Monday is a much, much different animal. Lots of uncertainty with some teams shutting players down before the All Star Break, and just a ton of games. Let's try to wade through it.
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A quick heads up - we post an updates article every day in the early afternoon, EST, to catch everyone up on how things are changing as a result of whatever news has come through. We also have great talks in the comments of that article. Keeping up on news is especially critical on huge slates like this. Hope to see you there!
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 28.64 DK Proj. Pts - 29.81
Another day, another Emmanuel Mudiay recommendation. Not really sure what we're supposed to do about this, unfortunately. We've recommended him every time he's played for a few weeks, but his price remains basically the same, and he keeps crushing. He's had back to back games with 33+ FanDuel fantasy points, and is playing legit good basketball right now, with just 2 turnovers total in his last 2 contests. Today he'll get one of his softest match-ups of the season against Brooklyn's overmatched PG combo. They've allowed the 7th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. I guess I'll just go ahead and play him everywhere again.
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 35.31 DK Proj. Pts - 37.61
Kyrie's just back. Yes, he gets a pretty dramatic usage bump with Love on the sidelines, but even if Love is back, Irving is just not priced to where he should be if he's going to play 37 minutes a game. In his last 6 games he's averaged almost exactly 5x points per dollar on these prices, and he'll have his best match-up of the season against the Kings, who not only have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, but are also coming off of a barn-burning game against the Celtics. There's some blowout risk here, but I like Kyrie for safety and upside nonetheless.
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 33.96 DK Proj. Pts - 34.76
Butler is out again, and this means we're going to see piles upon piles of Derrick Rose handling the ball. Rose took 47 shots in the last two games, but he wasn't just shooting - he dished 18 assists as well. This is a less than ideal match-up with the Hornets (which is why Rose isn't first), but this is a 50/50 play like you read about. Or, like you just read about. Either way, Rose is a very safe play today.
The elephant in the room: Russell Westbrook. He could murder Phoenix, it's true. If you think he plays his full run of minutes, you absolutely need to play him. I have him forecasted for 31 minutes due to this almost certainly being a blowout, and that downgrades him quite a bit of course. I can't get a pulse on what the industry will do with him, here, but if you think he'll be a chalk play he probably won't kill you.
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 22.94 DK Proj. Pts - 24.36
Butler being ruled out means Moore is the top guy at the position, and it really isn't close. Moore lit up the scoreboard on Saturday, playing a very active 37 minutes where he shot 13 times and had 7 assists. The Hornets, meanwhile, have really struggled to defend shooting guards - they've allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. Just a price/opportunity mismatch, and I'll play Moore in every lineup.
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 32.35 DK Proj. Pts - 33.77
The safe guy with the fewest question marks, especially if Tobias Harris is out again. Dipo was solid again on Sunday, posting 30.5 FanDuel fantasy points in this exact match-up against the Hawks. This after he had posted two great games against the Clippers and Spurs earlier in the week. I don't think he's got explosive points per dollar upside in this match-up, but the safety seems clear.
The guys you need to wait and see about:
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 22.9 DK Proj. Pts - 25.14
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 25.17 DK Proj. Pts - 27.68
It all depends on what happens with McLemore/Gay for Belinelli, and Harris for Fournier. Both were fantastic on these prices on Sunday, and should be again if they get the same run on Monday. I'd be happier with Fournier just because of the match-up and potential blowout risk for Belinelli, but really wouldn't mind either.
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Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 26.23 DK Proj. Pts - 28.03
Not playing Stanley Johnson at small forward today is basically like voluntarily paying the rake, from our projection system's perspective. He's averaged 37 fantasy points in the two games he's started in KCP's absence, and he's probably worth 15%-20% more than these prices if he's going to be out there for mid-high 30s in minutes. The Raptors are a bad match-up, but like Moore's recommendation above, this is a clear points per dollar upside play. Easy, easy one from where I'm sitting.
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 32.45 DK Proj. Pts - 34.58
Man, this is a juicy position today. It's really, really hard to imagine not just playing Johnson and Batum, but I guess I'll see what our new optimizer (coming live to the public after the ASB!) winds up spitting out. The Frenchman has been involved in seemingly every Hornets possession in the last two games, averaging 42.5 minutes 23.5 points, 8.5 boards, and 8.5 assists in the process. Chicago's been generous to opposing SFs this season - they've allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing SFs - but this one goes even deeper than that. Unless Chicago plans on playing Dunleavy the whole game, Batum will have a mismatch against whoever covers him - the Bulls don't really have another true 3. Terrific play for upside and safety.
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 24.25 DK Proj. Pts - 25.63
Baze! This is where paying very, very close attention to minutes starts to pay off. The Hawks have slowly taken a few minutes away from Thabo and Schroder and moved them Baze's way, and he's looking like a 32.5-33 minute guy for the time being. He loved this match-up with the Magic on Sunday, taking advantage of the fact that they weren't playing a true small forward (the Magic were fudging things with a 3 guard Dipo/Payton/Fournier lineup) and putting up 23 and 8 on 17 shots. I like the above guys much more, but you can make an argument for Bazemore in big tournaments.
The upside monster of the position is clearly Durant, once again. But man - the risk of the blowout is just so ripe here. Likewise for LeBron, who feels considerably safer given how much better the Kings (his matchup) are than the Suns.
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 50.55 DK Proj. Pts - 51.32
You've got to spend up somewhere with all the insane value around today, and our projection system would have you believe that this is the spot to do just that. The Pels have been trotting Glass Joe Davis out for 37-40 minutes with reckless abandon, and I just love it. It's an interesting match-up for him with the Wolves' twin towers, but I'm not worried here. I wrote this about Faried yesterday, and I'll write it here today - there's a reason why Gorguie Dieng has trouble staying on the court, and it has nothing to do with his great rebounding and polished offensive game. It's that he kinda sucks on D. He's allowed 52.8% shooting on the shots he's defended near the rim this year, well below the average for big men starters. The Pels will give it to Davis early and often, and I think he crushes it here.
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 24.99 DK Proj. Pts - 26.02
After he destroyed these Hawks on Sunday, it's hard to imagine Gordon not being a huge play again on Monday. Gordon gobbled the Hawks up on the defensive end, grabbing 13 rebounds, blocking 4 shots, and stealing the ball twice as well. I don't think you can count on him for 6 defensive stats today, but the double-double is totally legit, and he's a favorite for 5x points per dollar here.
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 33.64 DK Proj. Pts - 34.91
Another DFSR favorite, Thad has had all the qualities we love in a player recently. 1) He's been awesome, 2) We've been playing him, and 3) most people haven't been. The Nets seem content to play him 38-39 minutes as long as things aren't out of hand, and they shouldn't be against a less than stellar Denver team. In his last 3 games, he's averaged 18 points and 13 rebounds, and this is easily his best match-up in this stretch. The Nuggets have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season (remember when I said Faried was a bad defender?), and Thad should do work here.
Also considered: Markieff Morris, for the electric upside on the off chance the game is close enough to warrant him playing the minutes. He'll be underowned, and stacking him with Westbrook, Durant, PJ Tucker, and Archie Goodwin might be a winning strategy.
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 32.32 DK Proj. Pts - 32.83
Yeah, I mean, is there a reason we shouldn't play the guy who has averaged 37 minutes and 35 fantasy points per game at a $6k salary? Not quite as hot a play on DraftKings, but on FanDuel? Sort of a must, once again. I'll be playing him everywhere, and I refuse to apologize for it.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 39.97 DK Proj. Pts - 40.7
There are guys our system likes better strictly from a points per dollar perspective, but if you want upside? There's a great case for Drummond. First of all, his price has ticked downward on the back of some uninspired play recently, making him a great buying opportunity. Next, Drummond is a classic "smells blood" guy - when he knows he can kill someone, he goes for the jugular. And, oh, is Jonas Valancunias a guy who will make him smell blood. JV is super weak around the rim (allowing a dismal 55% field goal percentage there - one of the worst in the league), and he lacks the athleticism to really challenge Drummond on the glass. Of course, he could also get Drummond in foul trouble and negate him that way. This is far from a lock, but if you look up and see Drummond with a 60 fantasy point game tonight, don't say we didn't semi-call it!
Also considered: Nikola Vucevic, who looked great against the Hawks on Sunday.
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As he mentioned that their lineups crushed....yours would too if anyone would listen to what they say!! Every single player they mention is either the flop of the day or one of the plays of the day....think I'm kidding...go back and look at any contest you entered and click on any of the top lineups...bet you one, two or three of the hombres that dfsr mentioned is in there! Ever wonder how do the top guys know who to play?.It all starts with that one pick that sets the tone for your lineup.....these guys really do help you pinpoint the guys to lock in to start that successful lineup that you could see near the top...without those good picks to start with you're doomed!! These guys and their system have helped me pump out succesful lineups night after night...they really do know their stuff and I take their advice seriously...so should you!
Mike. Thanks for the nice words. We think we are about the best in the industry at NBA projections and love when folks find it a value add.
You don't like Lopez against Denver for center?
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Guys, let's not spill the beans....
I've dabbled with different sites for information and top play suggestions, but you guy are far and away the only site that has actually produced good results for me. Thank you so much for the information, keep the goods tips coming!
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Just came across the site. Does this site have an optimizer associated with it? Like Ronnie mentioned above, I have been doing DFA for 2-3 years with mixed results. Always looking for sites to improve winning percentages, knowledge of the games, etc. Any feedback from users of this site would be great! Thanks!
You can download csv and get it done via excel for optimal