Detroit Pistons' Andre Drummond (0) scores as San Antonio Spurs defenders Boris Diaw (33) and Patty Mills (8) look on during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2015, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
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Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 35.7 DK Proj. Pts - 38.02
Uncle Drew appears to be fully back at this point, to the degree that I'm not totally concerned on the back-to-back here. He has a fantastic matchup against a defensively deficient New Orleans team that ranks near the bottom of the league against about every position and a team as a whole. Irving could get buzzed on minutes and still hit value in this one. The only issue with Kyrie is the Cavs have a deep three starting on offense and it does depend somewhat on where the shots go. But his price hasn't climbed all the way back up to second tier superstar level and we still have a solid opportunity to buy.
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 25.83 DK Proj. Pts - 26.68
Still no Brandon Knight means we still get tons of Archie. He's taken over the point guard position and done well enough to warrant a value play even as the price climbs. It's getting closer and closer to the breaking point, but even against a slower and tougher Utah squad we are still buying on him. He's playing minutes in the upper thirties while showing a knack for scoring. The Suns are a mess in general and appear fully committed to losing. But that doesn't dissuade me from this play simply because he's outstripping the prices.
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 21.05 DK Proj. Pts - 22.12
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 30.35 DK Proj. Pts - 31.75
Do you like what's going on here? Me neither. Alvin Gentry insisting on running the hot hand (if that's even his philosophy, I'm not totally sure what his coaching strategy is) makes for projecting the Pelican point guard minutes a real disaster. Last game Cole struggled, got benched and ceded massive run to Holiday. But this is far from a sure thing game-to-game. Both qualify as high upside tournament plays, but are hard to trust in cash games. We know Tyreke is out, so at least that is settled. I have them in here because there are a lot of New Orleans' point guard minutes to go around and our system loves both from a per minute standpoint. But man it's tough.
You think OKC hangs with GSW? If so then Russell Westbrook is in play even at 11K on FD. He's just an other-worldly fantasy guy and if these teams get up and down the court at a breakneck pace then you are looking at an incredibly high ceiling.
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 20.28 DK Proj. Pts - 22.98
It says a lot about the state of the Pelicans that a guy on his second leg of ten day contracts is playing these kind of minutes for the team. The Pels have been a mess this year (some bad luck, some not) and BDJ has stepped in to fill the void left by Eric Gordon, Evans, etc. He's still a minimum-priced player on FanDuel which is nuts considering how much he's played lately and he's basically a must play over there if you have him for only about 30 minutes. That he could see way more makes it look even crazier. Cleveland is a bad defensive matchup, but you really can't get away from the price.
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 17.9 DK Proj. Pts - 18.99
Jimmy Butler left last night's game with a hyperextended knee and he will likely sit out this game. The bulls could really be short handed if Gasol can't go again as well. Last time Butler sat just two games ago, Moore played big minutes in his stead. I'm looking for a similar scenario tonight. Hoiberg has some confidence here as Moore's taken over minutes from both the one and the two, meaning he's versatile enough to see heavy run.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 24.53 DK Proj. Pts - 26.89
He's probably my least favorite player in the NBA to watch on League Pass. He's a ball-stopper and bad shot-taker. That's a lethal combination for any team trying to win at all. But the Nets are a disaster so JJ continues to get out there for mucho minutes. That being said, he can put together a game here and there with the scoring. He should see enough shot volume tonight to hit his salary mark and makes a real nice play on DK where he's a small forward. He's coming off a huge game last night against the Kings in which he played big minutes. Those could drop some on the b2b, but this is such a good matchup that I'm rolling the dice I think.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 18.34 DK Proj. Pts - 20.09
He's the actual shooting guard for the Nets even though FD has them both listed here. Ellington is one of thos low-ceiling/higher-floor guys thanks to the minutes. He really needs to score (especially hitting the three) to pay out, but the shot volume has been there and more over the last four or so games. He's putting up double digit attempts in that span and averaging about seven three point looks per game. That should continue tonight against the Sixers who allow more than league scoring from the opposing shooting guard.
Consider Wes Matthews who our system continues liking as it waits for him to get back to his old shooting accuracy from three. Hasn't happened yet though.
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Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 25.17 DK Proj. Pts - 26.84
The other night I tweeted out (about 30 minutes before tip) how Stanley Johnson saw a big time usage decrease when he'd run with the starters this season. I still liked him as a play, but there was some evidence that he'd be the forgotten man on the offensive end with KCP out. What I didn't count on totally (though our system still loved him) was that he'd play full run with both the starters and the reserves. Johnson went 44 minutes on his way to a 22/9/5 line that was the fantasy play of the night. He should be back at it again in this one. KCP is already out through the All-Star break and I suspect Johnson is the most highly-owned player on the slate.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 29.49 DK Proj. Pts - 30.04
MKG has come back at an opportune time for the Hornets and they've begun playing him bigger minutes again. Kidd-Gilchrist was a guy, pre-injury, who could see big time run as they'd really utilize his skills on the defensive side of the ball. The minutes are of course the real story here and it isn't like the Hornets have a wealth of options on offense outside of Kemba (with sprinklings of Lin and Batum if the latter ever finds his groove again). I'm not loving small forward as a whole and MKG makes a decent midrange play for his opportunity.
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 22.18 DK Proj. Pts - 23.64
If you think the game stays close and the Warriors use Barnes with minutes in the low-to-mid 30's then I think you can take a shot on him in cash games. He's a bit up and down and not exactly the safest guy in the world because he falls well down the ladder on offense. But the run should be there in an up and down game.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 27.71 DK Proj. Pts - 30.58
System wants you to stick with him and so do I. Covington is a guy who relies a lot on scoring and defensive points to hit his value. Lucky for him Brooklyn is a sloppy team and opposition has feasted on their lack of any real kind of flowing offense. Covington could put together a solid defensive game in this one if he's out there enough. It's always a tough call with the Sixers because they jockey around the minutes for reasons not entirely clear. But our system has Covington basically as a must play if he's still running with the starters. Update: Covington may have been playing hurt last night so keep an eye out for this situation. Could explain why his minutes got bumped down. And yes, I know he screwed a lot of people last night. Me included.
Another night and power forward is potentially loaded. We are staring down the barrel at a number of high quality plays and I suspect this is one of the toughest positions to make a decision on tonight. These picks really could be swapped around in any order.
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 30.29 DK Proj. Pts - 31.52
The DraftKings' price is starting to push the upper limits now, but I still think he's very much in play on FanDuel. With Mahinmi out in the front court and additionally the Pacers needing some more scoring from their bigs anyway, Turner has filled in two separate voids. He ceded some minutes to Allen last night because of foul trouble, but he's too talented to sit for long stretches on this team. I think you see him bounce back in minutes tonight against the Pistons.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 33.35 DK Proj. Pts - 34.73
Somewhat in the same vein as Joe Johnson above, I'm both encouraged and somewhat scared by the minutes Thad played last night. On the one hand, projecting him for minutes in the mid-to-high 30's makes him super attractive because his scoring and rebounding per minute stats are nothing to sniff at and this is a good matchup against Philly. On the other hand, if the Nets choose to lighten the load on the guys with heavy run from last night then you could get a bit stuck. All that being said, I think Thad sees said minutes and his prices are very advantageous.
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 27.58 DK Proj. Pts - 28.54
The run wasn't quite there last time around, but I still think the team is incentivized to play Markieff out of the starting lineup. At worst he's one of their better offensive options when on the court seeing as how he can stretch from the four and does create his own shot. At best, they showcase him on the trade block for his talent. This isn't a great matchup against Utah, but his pricing (especially on Fanduel) hasn't totally caught up if he's running full with the starters.
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 26.6 DK Proj. Pts - 27.06
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 16.99 DK Proj. Pts - 17.44
Both of these guys logged bigger minutes last night with Gasol out. If that were the case again then they both are very much in play again Minnesota. Taj is in play either way considering the state of the Bulls' front court with Noah and Mirotic out. His minutes should be there one way or another against Minny. Portis is more Gasol-dependent. He got out there for minutes in the upper twenties and crushed thee prices. Here's to hoping we know about Pau prior to lock (unlike last night).
Strongly consider Derrick Favors for a bit more. Like I said there's a lot to like about power forward tonight.
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 40.26 DK Proj. Pts - 41
Center is a position you can really spend up on today mostly because there is solid mid-to-low range value at most of the other positions. Drummond has a chance to really go full beast mode on an Indiana team that is forced to start Jordan Hill at center. If you haven't noticed, Hill isn't a defense-first big. He's undersized here in the matchup and the Pacers are really going to have trouble with Drummond inside. Even with Mahimmi this season, the Pacers have allowed 11% more rebounding than league average to center. Drummond putting up close to a 20/20 line isn't out of the question here. I'm not saying he's a lock for it of course, but he has some big time upside.
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 30.16 DK Proj. Pts - 30.64
Speaking of guys who aren't defensive first centers, Pau Gasol also falls into said category. And there's a chance he doesn't play which would leave Taj Gibson and Bobby Portis to protect the interior. Granted Dieng and Towns swap between 4-5 depending on the rotation, but I really like Gorgeous Gorgui's price assuming Garnett sits this one out. His price on FD is particularly attractive if he's running with the starters again.
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 25.11 DK Proj. Pts - 25.63
Our system really likes Hill if he sticks in the starting lineup, though it's easy to envision a scenario in which Hill gets just roasted by Andre inside. Foul trouble, destroying Hill's soul, whatever. Detroit's been well above average against opposing centers this season, but Hill's price hasn't quite climbed to the point that he's out of play in the starting unit. Proceed with caution here.
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View Comments
Consider weiters only 4 k on a crazy o/u game !!!
No thanks. GS strong against opposing SG.
I don't mind Waiters. System likes him fine on the minutes. But Max is right, GSW does a number on these guys.
Early Slate. Mahinmi questionable. So More Drummond? I wish Terry Stotts was more predictable on who he rolls out to replace vonleh. The Points in the Blazer Houston Game is Juicy.
what about a steph curry / westbrook stack?