Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
Growing up in southern Louisiana I got to watch Shaq and Chris Jackson (IMHO one of the best college players of all time) share the floor in person, so I had to sneak in a little CBK tonight to watch next year’s ROY. This year’s lottery winner’s set for a long time with Ben Simmons redefining whatever position he plays. But I’m a little ahead of myself. Let’s take a look at tomorrow’s full 11 game slate, highlighted by a Dubs/John Wall track meet. One thing that stands out looking at the Vegas numbers is a lot of blowout risk, so be sure to keep that in mind.
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Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 27.34 DK Proj. Pts - 28.44
Mudiay’s floor time has fluctuated lately. Still, he has maintained a solid floor and flashed some 6X-type upside. With a projection based on relatively conservative minutes, the DFSR system loves him against Utah’s average perimeter defense. He likes to take it to the rim, and even with the Mt. Gobert waiting for him in the paint, he could spend some time at the charity stripe. High floor with some upside, I like him a lot at this price point.
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 49.92 DK Proj. Pts - 51.68
I personally have a hard time not playing the incredibly consistent Westbrook every time OKC takes the court. Tomorrow will be no exception. You should have dollars to invest from value opportunities elsewhere, and while there’s some blowout risk, he’s practically immune even to that. No one brings it like Russ on both ends, every single night.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 26.87 DK Proj. Pts - 28.85
After going off for nearly 8X last game, Hill next gets to take advantage of the Nets 29th-rated PG defense. He’s been playing monster minutes, displayed a solid 4X floor, and there’s less blowout risk here than a lot of other places. Another mid-tier PG option, I especially like this play at DK’s lower price point (where they also reward Hill’s consistent 3PM production).
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 31.61 DK Proj. Pts - 33.08
OKC plays fast (8th in Pace) and is in the bottom 3rd of the league defending the SG position. The offshore markets (not the Nikkei, the other ones) see a lot of points in this one, and we see a lot of minutes for the hyper-athletic wingman. I like his chances to take advantage of this opportunity. Oladipo is a solid mid-tier option with a ton of upside.
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 18.6 DK Proj. Pts - 20.41
While it’s true that the Nets are a nightly candidate to get run out of the gym, Ellington’s been playing a consistent 30 minutes. At $4k with a 4X floor and some upside, this is a nice near-punt opportunity. Save some salary here so you can spend up elsewhere (see Westbrook, R. above).
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 29.87 DK Proj. Pts - 30.65
In DFS, opportunity is Good (think Bill Murray and “crossing the streams”). Wiggins gets the minutes and the shots on a nightly basis. The matchup isn’t great, but, notwithstanding the speedbump against the Jazz a couple of games ago, he’s had a hard 4X floor and could spike as high as 6X against the Clips. I like him particularly in cash games but he’s a solid place to park $6k in all formats.
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Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 29.06 DK Proj. Pts - 32.2
Since joining the regular rotation in Philly 9 games ago, Big Shot Bob has failed to hit 5X on FD exactly twice. The Hawks have a bunch of speculation swirling around them at the trade deadline, play at a high Pace, and are terrible against SFs. Even at his significantly higher DK price, this is a plug-and-play option. I’ll have him in all of my lineups.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 23.55 DK Proj. Pts - 25.07
There’s nothing sexy about The Baze. But he plays 30 minutes like clockwork (sorry), these 30 are against the Sixers, and his price has been on a downward trend for a while. Our projection system says this is the time to buy. Good place to spend at this price point.
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 33.38 DK Proj. Pts - 34.77
This just in: the Spurs are good. Not-so-breaking news: the Pels are not. The matchup is great, and the premier two-way player in the Association is the hub of the Spurs’ wheel. Like many other places tonight, it could get out of hand, but I like him as a higher-end play, especially on FD.
Keep an eye on the news from Sacramento. If Boogie is out again, Rudy Gay is a virtual must-start.
Finally, on a night with a lot of options at the 3, Harrison Barnes has a lot of upside priced well under $5k, but the Dubs starters’ are a nightly threat to play three quarters. Look at him as a Tourney play on FD.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 29.53 DK Proj. Pts - 30.72
We’ve already covered the Pacers/Nets matchup. Mahinmi’s already been ruled out. On FD, click on the green plus sign and move along. His price is on a NASA trajectory on DK, but even at the 15% relative premium, we like his chances for a least a 5X. Plus, he’s fun to watch, and I love seeing him out on the floor figuring it out a little more every night. Technically, that doesn’t count in DFS, but it added to the fun of his back-to-back 4-block games (and the attendant 8 points that did count).
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 34.75 DK Proj. Pts - 35.2
He’s back, starting, and riding shotgun with one R. Gobert. The Nuggets are decent against interior players, and don’t play particularly fast, but this is still a nice upper-middle-class price point. With a high floor, he also has lots of upside, as evidenced by his own 4-block game Monday night. At sub-$7k on DK, I’m going to find him hard to pass up.
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 36.56 DK Proj. Pts - 39.29
There’s a lot to Love here. In the post-Blatt Era, he’s been an absolute beast. He put up a 7X in 28 minutes a couple of games ago. The Hornets do defend the 4 well, but, particularly on DK, this is another big guy that you need to find room for.
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 30.42 DK Proj. Pts - 31.54
This is a boom-or-bust selection from where I’m sitting. I don’t like seeing sub-3X outings in the recent game log, but those 6X outbursts also stick out. Playing a Net always makes me nervous (as opposed to playing against one), but the DFSR system think he’s got a good shot to spike tonight. Could be a nice contrarian Tourney play.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 29.71 DK Proj. Pts - 30.33
If the 7X last time out didn’t do it for you, how about the 11X the game before that? Yes, it’s another Pacer, but at these prices he’s simply got to be in your lineup. He is the single best FD value of the night on an 11-game slate. And he’s no slouch at his significantly higher DK cost.
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 32.29 DK Proj. Pts - 32.8
On DK you can play multiple Centers. As long as KG remains out, this looks like a good night to go big at Utility. Unlike Hill, he put up a mere 6X on Sunday, and 10X (against Favors/Gobert) the previous outing. I guess that makes him a relative slouch. Heck of a slouch.
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View Comments
no GS or WASH players??
It's a huge slate, and that game could be headed in the direction of a blowout. Lots of very expensive guys, too. I imagine someone in that game will have a huge night, but I'll be looking elsewhere.
Great explanation. As a Wizards fan I 100% agree. Team just exhausted their one surprise showing per week in the victory vs. Houston.
Do you think J.J. Barea has a chance for a big game as a cheap guard with the Dallas injuries?
My sources (DFSR) say yes (on FD).