Oklahoma City Thunder's Kevin Durant, right, and Russell Westbrook celebrate their team's 100-99 win against the Los Angeles Clippers in an NBA basketball game, Monday, Dec. 21, 2015, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
It's February already! Here in New Hampshire it was 55 degrees and I just went for a run in a t-shirt. Global warming is the best. Some consider this to be a down time of the fantasy year, but not DFSR! We're still coming hot with picks every single day, and giving the info you need to beat the field (and then some!). Today is a pretty tricky slate to manage. Lots of weird match-ups, with good DFS teams (Orlando, New Orleans) facing brutal defenses (Spurs, Memphis), and a smattering of simply odd dudes with weird prices. Days like this are good bankroll padders, though - lots of room for our opponents to make mistakes. Let's dive in!
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Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 50.31 DK Proj. Pts - 52.1
On bigger slates there will inevitably be very cheap guys we can play at terrific value, and we'll need to spend up somewhere. Well, Westbrook has been and continues to be a terrific nightly option for doing just that. The Thunder's all-world point guard is the rare star who brings it every single night, and this gives him a floor you really don't see out of a lot of his high priced peers. He's hustling for loose ball rebounds, wreaking havoc on every possession for either buckets or assists, and generally involved in every single play on both ends. He's got 50+ DraftKings fantasy points in 7 of his last 8 games, and he'll be playing the Wizards, who have the 5th highest PACE factor in the league. A phenomenal 50/50 play here.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 26.73 DK Proj. Pts - 27.76
My jaw was on the floor when I saw Mudiay was a 1.2% start in the big $10 double up on Saturday, and I'm continuing to lick my chops at these ridiculous prices. Mudiay's paid 5x points per dollar in 6 of his last 8 games on these prices, and shows no signs whatsoever of slowing down. Another weird situation where I'm recommending a guy in a not so great match-up, but he's turned into one of the most consistent daily fantasy commodities going. I'd be happy to plug him in anywhere.
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 31.53 DK Proj. Pts - 33.45
On the slightly riskier but equally interesting side of things, there's Mr. Irving. The Cavs have been flirting with bringing Kyrie up to his full minutes worth of rotation, and chances are good he'll start playing 35+ minutes a game at some point with little fanfare. Signs point to that being pretty soon - he's averaged 34 minutes in his last 2 games. The projected numbers above are on 32 minutes, and he's looking like a tea-pot ready to whistle. Remember - this was a guy who people were playing at $7,500--$8,000 in the not too distant past. Indiana's not a terrific match-up, but it's not a great night for the position, and I could see him putting up some very nice numbers here.
An off-beat play: Mike Conley against the Pelicans. His minutes are trending upward, and it's a very nice match-up against a gimpy Tyreke or Norris Cole. Eyeballs on this one for big tourneys.
Keep an eye on the Tyreke Evans situation. If he sits again, Norris Cole and Jrue Holiday will both make for very interesting plays once again.
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 23.31 DK Proj. Pts - 23.87
People continue to yawn at Tony Allen, and we at DFSR keep playing him basically every night. He's the kind of guy who lulls you to sleep if you're tuned into a game because he's putting together his fantasy totals on uncontested rebounds and steals, but the production on these prices is undeniable. He's paid 4.7x points per dollar or better in each of his 3 games since returning from injury, and is just so important to what Memphis does defensively that it's very hard to imagine him going below 27 minutes or so. Probably not a huge upside play, but I love him for 50/50s and double-ups.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 18.47 DK Proj. Pts - 19.86
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 18.07 DK Proj. Pts - 19.68
It's a pretty bad day for shooting guards, which means I'm going to be trying to escape the position cheaply. Both of these guys allow me to do just that. Waiters has a fast paced match-up against the Wiz, and while most projection systems I see out there don't seem to account for the fact that his usage in the starting lineup is about 50% of what it is when he's running the second unit, he's still a pretty high floor play on these prices. Ellington is playing 30+ minutes with regularity, and while he's very scoring dependent, he's basically free, here. The Wizards and Pistons are the 8th and 10th most generous defenses to opposing SGs this season, so this one is pretty much a coinflip. I'd take Waiters for safety since the Nets are sometimes wonky, but I like both.
Also considered: Monta Ellis, but you're buying awfully high here. Yes, he shot 28 times against the Nuggets. But he also shot 33 total times in the three previous games. I wouldn't count on another huge upside performance, and I'd deploy him very cautiously tonight.
Keep an eye on Bryce Dejean-Jones, who's putting up very solid numbers with Tyreke Evans out. If Evans is back, however, Jones is worthless.
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Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 48.74 DK Proj. Pts - 51.93
Yep, I'm going to roll with the Wizards' big two again tonight. This is basically a mirror image game from the other night when they played Houston. This game has the highest over/under by a country mile, and since the Thunder only have two players who can score the basketball, I'd love to have a little taste of each in my double ups today. Helping matters is Otto Porter's injury - the Wizards have given up the most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season even when he was healthy, and watching him gimp after KD could be high comedy.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 19.03 DK Proj. Pts - 20.35
Stanley the Manly seems to have won SVG's favor in Detroit, playing an average of 30 minutes per game in his last 3, averaging 15/4/3 and a steal, and delighting daily fantasy basketball owners who happened to notice what was happening. Note - this was happening before Ilyasova got banged up, so this is likely something we can count on going forward. If he runs with the starting unit, he'll likely be covered by Joe Johnson or Wayne Ellington here. Which is to say: play this man. Play him anywhere, or everywhere, especially if Ilyasova does happen to sit again.
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 33.37 DK Proj. Pts - 34.76
I can't say I'm over the moon about this play today, but our projection system's optimism forces me to at least put him in the picks. Kawhi has basically turned into a steady if unspectacular play at these prices who's currently benefiting from a few extra shots with Duncan on the shelf. I'm a little nervous about him hitting these prices if the game gets out of hand, and I wouldn't play him on DraftKings, but given how huge a start he was in his last game (52%) against Cleveland, I figured I should include him in a league average against the Magic.
Also considered: Rudy Gay, who played very well in huge minutes in his first game back against Memphis. If you think 38+ minutes per game are legit, he could be terrific against the Bucks.
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 28.79 DK Proj. Pts - 29.92
Just stupid prices, and it's starting to get on my nerves. Turner was a 92% start in big double ups on FanDuel in his last match-up, and his price hasn't moved at all. Yay. He's a little more expensive on DK, but he's still a great play there. The bottom line is, he's a terrific offensive option in a match-up against a minus defender in Love, and he'll be basically a unanimous double up play once again.
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 48.42 DK Proj. Pts - 49.15
Brow did his best to give us a heart attack in his first game back from his concussion, but ultimately wound up having a very Browish 20/16/3 with 2 blocks against the Nets. So, this is a decidedly worse match-up for him, but this isn't your grandmother's Grizzlies team - they've allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season, and are old in all the wrong places. These projections are on a conservative 37 minutes. This game has a 1 point spread, and the Pels will need Davis' size and touch against the big lineups the Grizzlies can play. This one feels awfully safe if you don't want to put all your eggs in the OKC/WAS basket.
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 24.71 DK Proj. Pts - 25.6
If you want a separation play (since everyone will be playing Turner again), or just want to go double-cheap at the position, why not consider Parker? He's playing 33-39 minutes in non-blowouts, and has been wildly steady when he plays those minutes since the beginning of 2016. The Kings have allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season, and if Turner takes an off night, Jabari could sneak up on a few people.
Also considered: Kevin Love. He's quietly been tearing it up on these prices, and showing flashes of his old Minnesota self. Have the Cavs finally figured out how to leverage their ridiculously good spacing possibilities? Our system seems to think so.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 29.11 DK Proj. Pts - 29.96
Jokic was showing up in our optimal lineups the other day, and we were feeling concerned. Could he build upon his 35 FanDuel fantasy points performance against the Wiz? Um, yes. He crushed the Pacers for 16/11 and an astounding 5 steals, and caused all sorts of problems around the rim for them. With back to back games of 35+ fantasy points, and coming off his highest minutes total of the season, he's looking like a very safe play on these sub $6k prices. He should torture the defensively soft Jonas Valancunias, and I can imagine playing him in any format.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 42.58 DK Proj. Pts - 43.36
I'm a little concerned about Drummonmd right now, if we're being honest. It's a less than inspiring little run of games, particularly from a rebounding perspective. He's the best rebounder in the game primarily because of his effort, and if that isn't there, it will be hard to keep up his historic pace on the glass. And if he's not going to get 15+ rebounds a game, it will be tough for him to justify these prices. Still, I like him here for a couple of reasons. First of all, the hapless Nets have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season. And while Brook Lopez is a very good player, there are a handful of guys in the league that he just can't keep pace with from an athleticism perspective - Drummond, DeAndre, the type of guy who plays too far above the rim for his boxing out abilities to really be as valuable. I'm not sure I'll spend up here, but I could see this being a huge game.
Jordan Hill looks like a must start if Ian Mahinmi sits again. He was unreal against Denver, and while he won't put up a zillion blocks again, he should still pay his paltry prices.
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View Comments
The problem with most of these projections is that they state 4.5 - 5 points per dollar as good. Even at 5 - 250 pts. is getting you nowhere. The past 2 days I've posted 299.75 and 296.5 scores on DraftKings and managed a win only in 1 double up contest total. Granted, that is a bit higher than the average floor, but still, closer to 6pts / $1 is generally required.
Scored 305 on fd last night easily doubled and hit gpp with your help and subscription . Thank you love the site !