Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 1/31/16

It's Pro Bowl Sunday! It's sort of amazing that the NBA even bothers to go head to head with such a display of athleticism and hustle. On a serious note - are we clear as to why they even hold a Pro Bowl? Isn't it beyond clear that some huge % of football is plugging players into schemes, and the chess match that happens between coaching staffs? I get it baseball where it's batters vs. hitters, or in basketball where the guys can just go out and have an exhibition. But football makes zero sense to me. Where were we? Ah yes, the NBA. There are technically two slates today, but the 3:30 EST game is sort of a stand alone in a lot of ways, and I'm not going to be analyzing it. We do have projections for it, so premium members will get to take a look at those if they wish, but this article will focus on the 6PM EST games and later. Let's go.

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POINT GUARD

Kemba Walker - FD 8600 DK 8700
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 39.43 DK Proj. Pts - 41.45
The man of the hour at the point guard position. Kemba brings a lovely high floor combination of huge minutes and huge usage, making him a 50/50 player's dream. His 8.4 minutes time of possession (per SportVU data) per game in the month of January is the 2nd highest in the NBA, and he's played 42 or more minutes in 5 of his last 9 games. The Lakers, meanwhile, have allowed the very most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. It'd be a surprise if Kemba weren't a nearly unanimous cash game start.

Archie Goodwin - FD 4800 DK 5800
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 26.84 DK Proj. Pts - 27.71
Once bitten, but I'm not twice shy here. There's no question that the shine is off of Archie Goodwin to some degree. It doesn't look like he'll wind up being a true talent $7,000 point guard or anything. But here's the thing - the Suns really just don't have anyone. Last game Goodwin lost some minutes, but the Suns needed to get blown out AND he needed to go 0/5 from the floor with 3 turnovers in the first 7 minutes of the game. Now, the Suns are probably not favorites to keep this game especially close either, but I suspect he'll have lots of usage against a team that lacks a lot of interested perimeter defenders outside of Wes Matthews (who will undoubtedly be trailing Booker). I guess he's risky now, but I'll still be playing him.

Jeff Teague - FD 5600 DK 5500
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 27.37 DK Proj. Pts - 28.35
A quick heads up - there are going to be some weird dudes coming on a weird slate today. Teague is one of them. Once a 35+ fantasy point per game stud, Teague is now the subject of trade rumors and general fantasy scorn. No one in the DFS community has been playing him, and his price is now in the "is this guy still starting?" range. I'll answer that for you: yes. And he's quietly had 3 nice performances on this price in a row. This is basically your super boring value play if the money works out just so.

SHOOTING GUARD

Zach LaVine - FD 4600 DK 5200
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.13 DK Proj. Pts - 24.17
Do you like playing guys off the bench?? I know I do! LaVine has been filling it up in his last 3 games, playing 30 minutes and averaging better than 33 FanDuel fantasy points per contest in some less than terrific match-ups. The Trail Blazers are basically a league average team against opposing shooting guards, so this is a simple case of LaVine's new opportunity not quite matching his price. He ought to be as safe as a bench player can be, and don't be surprised if he is the highest owned shooting guard on the board.

Andrew Wiggins - FD 6300 DK 6200
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 30 DK Proj. Pts - 30.81
Because you want at least one safe/boring guy, right? Wiggins was pretty awful against Utah, but he was paying 4.5-5x point per dollar like clockwork before that, producing 30.3 FanDuel fantasy points in the 9 games before that. I have no real reason to think he won't be able to do that in a league average match-up against Portland here.

Lou Williams - FD 5800 DK 5900
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 29.5 DK Proj. Pts - 32.07
Williams was able to battle through a respiratory infection and play on Friday, so there's no reason to believe he'll miss this match-up against the Hornets. And from where I'm sitting, it should wind up being a good spot for him. This all assumes Kobe is out, of course, but if Kobe is out, Williams should be priced something like 10% higher than this.

There are a lot of interesting guys at the position, to be honest. Devin Booker is still playing a ton. Langston Galloway will get a pile of minutes if Calderon is out again. Kind of a crazy day in some ways.

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SMALL FORWARD

Justise Winslow - FD 4100 DK 4400
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 19.75 DK Proj. Pts - 21.17
Justise Navidad! Man, that was a sweet pun. So here's the deal with Winslow. He's still not starting, and obviously we don't love that. But he is playing 33-37 minutes a game, and he's been a very steady producer on this price point. I like Winslow in particular because, unlike a lot of cheap wings, he doesn't need to score a ton to get his value. His 6-9 rebounds and 2-4 assists per game on these minutes give him a very solid floor, and he's got 6x points per dollar upside when things break right. It's not a good match-up with the Hawks necessarily, but there just aren't a lot of good match-ups at the position. I will play him in most of my 50/50s here.

P.J. Tucker - FD 5000 DK 5300
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 22.74 DK Proj. Pts - 24.26
The once forgotten PJ Tucker has emerged as a leader on this desperately terrible Suns team. The really fun thing about PJ is that, even when the Suns are blowing out (because they're always getting blown out), he seems to get his 35 minutes no matter what. All that time on the court and their generally fast pace means that Tucker has turned into a relatively safe player - posting between 25-32 fantasy points in his last 4 games. He's safer than most Suns, to me, because he doesn't seem to be losing his minutes regardless of game script. I'd be happy to play him anywhere.

Tobias Harris - FD 5700 DK 6100
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 28.07 DK Proj. Pts - 29.63
Am I ready to roll back a little Tobias Harris action even after he underproduced in this exact match-up? You bet I am. It's mostly a minutes bet. It is relatively unlikely that the Magic get blown out again here, and if they don't Harris is a favorite to play mid to high 30s minutes. If that happens, you're looking at a nice match-up against a team that's allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season. Did you notice a lot of "ifs" there? I did. This is probably only a big tournament play, but it's a good one nonetheless.

POWER FORWARD

Aaron Gordon - FD 4500 DK 5100
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 20.71 DK Proj. Pts - 21.59
Things are headed in the right direction for Gordon's daily fantasy basketball value. He looked terrific in the game against Boston, and he was really the only member of the Magic who didn't seem to really struggle. He lost minutes just like the rest of them, but still managed to pay better than 5x points per dollar on these prices. It's still a terrific match-up with the Celtics front court, who have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season. I feel like these projected values are his floor, and I wouldn't be surprised if this were his big coming out party.

Marvin Williams - FD 5400 DK 5200
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 24.63 DK Proj. Pts - 26.68
Not so starvin' Marvin has been pretty much great with Zeller out of the lineup, and since it looks like that will be the case here as well, I don't see any reason not to play him again. Doug and I were in the 2% of people who played him in big double ups on Friday, and he went ahead and put up an easy 33 fantasy points on the back of a 20 and 9 against the Trail Blazers. The Lakers are the most generous team in the league to opposing big men, and he seems as safe as safe can be.

Amar'e Stoudemire - FD 3900 DK 4200
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 20.77 DK Proj. Pts - 21.19
A fun punt play if you have a mind for it. Stoudemire has been starting with Whiteside out, and even though he's playing mid twenties minutes, he's basically a free guy. Only a big tournament play of course, but a guy you should be looking at if you simply can't make the money work elsewhere.

Also considered: Julius Randle. Also, Chris Bosh if you're starved for safety. Guy does the same thing every night.

CENTER

Spencer Hawes - FD 4000 DK 5200
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 22.7 DK Proj. Pts - 24.08
He's lost his minutes in each of the last two games, but it's hard to imagine this one getting out of hand in the same way. And if it doesn't, we're looking at 30 minutes of a guy who's underpriced against the league's worst center defense. I'm playing Hawes in every single lineup, and not feeling even a bit bad about it.

Nikola Vucevic - FD 7700 DK 7600
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 38.06 DK Proj. Pts - 38.57
I probably wasn't fair to Vuc when I said Gordon was the only member of the Magic who didn't look lost. Vucevic was having his way with the Celtics front court, but the C's hot shooting kept the ball out of his hands a few minutes into the third quarter. I'm assuming two things here: A) the Celtics don't beat them out of hand again, because it's hard to beat the same team that badly twice in a row, and B) the Magic coaching staff watched how easy Vuc and Gordon were having it and decide to feed them early and often. I don't see myself playing him over Hawes today, but if you want to run some big tournament lineup with nice upside, I like him quite a bit.

Also considered: Karl-Anthony Towns, who might just eat the Trail Blazers unathletic front court for lunch.

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