Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
Writing these up with the Sixers/Suns D-League-ish tilt in the background, I’m reminded that the beauty of DFS is that a point in this game is worth the same as a point in an actual NBA game. Which is great – these Train Wreck franchises (both to a greater or lesser extent due to injury and managerial ineptitude) offer the value opportunities we love. I have significant positions tonight in five guys in this game (mostly a good thing... shoulda’ gone Len over Chandler – see below) But they’re all relatively risky plays, in large part due to the same factors that make them attractive options. I’m about to endorse a host of players coming off this particular back-to-back, but I want to emphasize how crucial it is to confirm injury and other rotational information as close to lineup lock as possible. That said, let’s get to it.
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So coming off their matchup, let's keep focusing on the Suns and Sixers with a Phoenix & Philly-themed Night
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 26.35 DK Proj. Pts - 27.22
PHO/PHI Theme Night, Part 1A Starting NBA PG = DFS points. You don’t need a degree in Aeronautical Engineering to figure this one out. Last night Goodwin went off for 10x value. Despite his skyrocketing price on DK (but not on FD…?), he’s a plug-and-play on both sites until his role changes. No reason to think that’ll be Wednesday.
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 49.49 DK Proj. Pts - 51.27
“Russ-diculous.” Adj. meaning “To consistently provide 5x value at or above the $10k price point.” When you spend money (which is why we flag low-cost values in the first place), you want to do it safely. Westbrook is high-level production in bubble wrap. Any time the T-Wolves are involved, there’s blowout risk. Unless he gets himself ejected, he’s going to get you 40, even if he only plays 25 minutes.
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 33.51 DK Proj. Pts - 34.41
PHO/PHI Theme Night, Part 1B After a rough outing against Boston on Sunday, Ish got back to his consistent level of production against the Suns. Over the last 10 games, he has failed to hit 4x value twice, while generating at least 6x six times. The Captain has become a significant investment, but one with a high floor and a generous upside.
If you’re looking for a slightly different price point, take a look at Emmanuel Mudiay (but be aware he’s incredibly minutes-dependent).
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 22.98 DK Proj. Pts - 26.08
PHO/PHI Theme Night, Part 2 Another night, another 5x investment opportunity. Booker’s a serious talent getting serious run, and producing as he grows into his profession. Cleveland isn’t Philly, but the opportunity should be there (tonight marked his 4th straight with at least 36 minutes of floor time). At these prices (even on DK, where he’s a little more costly and creeping up), you pretty much need to etch him into your lineup.
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 27.36 DK Proj. Pts - 28.62
If Nic Batum remains out, Lin is a straight value opportunity. Utah isn’t a great matchup – they aren’t _near_ the bottom of the league in Pace, they ARE the bottom of the league – and they’re very tough on SGs. Nevertheless, when Lin gets his court time, he produces. High floor, solid cash play. Note that he’s a PG on DK.
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 26.41 DK Proj. Pts - 28.67
If Batum does return (or you’re not on FD), Avery Bradley is a nice alternative to Lin. He’s virtually identical in price and has a high floor. I particularly like Bradley in Tourney play, as you’ll see him consistently above 4x value, then spike to 6x or even 8x on certain nights. Denver doesn’t defend the SG position very well (26th in the league) – this could be one of those nights.
Not a great night to spend up at SG. The Beard is going up against a sure-to-be-feisty Spurs club.
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Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 28.25 DK Proj. Pts - 30.89
PHO/PHI Theme Night, Part 3 Easily the highest SF value, per the DFSR projections on FD (and very nearly so even at his higher DK price). In 7 games since he gained a regular rotation spot for the Sixers, he’s had a hard floor near 5x value, and spiked to 7x and 9x. Detroit is tough on SFs (5th in the league in FPPG allowed), but Big Bobby has produced value in as few as 25 minutes a game. Solid play in all formats.
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 36.91 DK Proj. Pts - 38.56
Kawhi is a real-world MVP candidate and a second-tier DFS option. Still, he’s in a significantly higher salary tier than most of the guys listed above. Frankly, he has been inconsistent of late, and I can only endorse him for tournaments. Since he’s playing the Rockets (high Pace, league-worst SF defense) the numbers suggest this is a good night to roll the dice.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 24.95 DK Proj. Pts - 27.36
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 32.48 DK Proj. Pts - 34.92
A couple of additional SF options for consideration. Each has thrown up duds in the last couple of weeks, and each has popped above 7x in the same time span. They both average and are projected for about 5x production on Wednesday. Marcus is a lower-end option, Danilo appropriate for those looking to spend up a bit. Lower floors than I’d Like, but high ceilings. I’d lean towards Danilo on DK where he’s rewarded for hitting the 3.
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 28.39 DK Proj. Pts - 29.93
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 27.27 DK Proj. Pts - 29.27
These guys are (from a metrics perspective) twins. They are the top two dollar-values per the DFSR projections on both FD and DK. They have virtually identical salaries and look to post within a point of each other. They have also both been inconsistent of late, in large part due to fluctuating minutes. Ilyasova has the Sixers matchup in his favor, but also the attendant Sixers Blowout Risk. Sullinger lives under the tyranny of Brad Stevens’ rotational fickleness. The numbers like them, and so do I, but neither are what I’d categorize as cash-game-locks.
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 21.56 DK Proj. Pts - 22.05
Nothing sexy about this pick. TT projects as a high floor option as long as he remains the starter. OTOH, things are in flux in Cleveland and they’re playing a farm team (although the Suns are at least average defending PFs). Consider him a decent option when trying to configure your roster, rather than a roster lynchpin or high end tourney gamble. You could do better, but you could do much, much worse (particularly on FD where he’s a semi-punt).
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 28.93 DK Proj. Pts - 29.39
PHO/PHI Pt. 4 My personal favorite on this PF slate with Okafor out. Nerlens will get the floor time, and the Pistons are bottom-3rd of the league against bigs. BUT (altogether now) he’s a Sixer. That said, I’m going to run him out there in most of my lineups.
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 24.08 DK Proj. Pts - 25.38
Owning Spencer Hawes as a starter at minimum prices ought to be a felony (or is that not owning him?). Hawes’ cost has risen more than 50% on DK in the last week (where gets rewarded as a C hitting from beyond the arc) and he’s crested $4k on FD. Still, he’s projected at or near 6x value on both sites, and the only contrary indicator would be Mt. Gobert. I can’t see sitting him on price alone.
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 28.09 DK Proj. Pts - 28.66
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 26.36 DK Proj. Pts - 26.82
PHO/PHI Pt.5 A/B If you just can’t get comfortable with Mr. Hawes, both Suns interior guys are priced to move. Two games ago, Chandler erupted for a 15x performance. Tonight, Len was active on both ends and posted a third consecutive huge number. And, yes, I’m bitter that I missed Chandler’s 15x and bought into his 3x tonight (though I survived it). They both come with the Suns (and Cavs) caveat, but both are reasonable plays.
If you nab the value at other positions, and want to spend up, the system loves Andre Drummond on both DK and FD (and Al Horford is a mid-tier bargain on DK).
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