Sacramento Kings' DeMarcus Cousins (15) drives the ball past Houston Rockets' Joey Dorsey in the first half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, April 1, 2015, in Houston. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)
It's an atypical bigger Tuesday slate in the NBA. Last night we were given another (inevitable) Anthony Davis injury. It really seems like he's trolling DFS at this point. Tonight's slate features a ton of cheap plays thanks to the current Suns' situation and a couple of other guys thrown in here and there. It's actually tough to figure out the ways to get money in right, which can be tough sledding. Let's take a look at some of the deals.
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Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 26.01 DK Proj. Pts - 26.9
This is an easy one. With Brandon Knight already ruled out, the Suns will look to run Goodwin out at the point for minutes in bunches. Archie hit a miracle game winning three at the buzzer against the Hawks on Saturday, and was awesome before that playing 41 minutes with a 24/4/1 line. He walks into a solid matchup against a bottom third defensive team in the Sixers. The sites haven't come close to adjusting Goodwin's price relative to his new opportunity and I suspect he's one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 34.91 DK Proj. Pts - 35.95
I know the Suns hung with and beat the Hawks on Sunday, but they are still a young/ inexperienced team with a bunch of defensive struggles this season. They are tied for the second worst defensive efficiency in the league and are allowing around 15% more scoring that league average to opposing point guards. They do have some bigger bodies inside who could alter Ish's strength which is getting to the basket. But the game flow here really favors Smith and assuming he has minutes just north of 30 then you have a guy with a high floor.
Strongly consider Russell Westbrook because he's well, Westbrook. But the two guys above are such great plays that it's tougher making the case to pay up for the guy.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 23.45 DK Proj. Pts - 26.76
You are going to see the Suns as somewhat of a theme in these picks today and it makes total sense. They are playing relatively short-handed and many starters come in at low price points. Booker is one of those guys. He's young and inexperienced but the Suns are forced into playing him nearly the whole game at the two with both Knight and Bledsoe out. Booker isn't fully comfortable in the NBA game yet, evidenced by his foul-prone nature out of position that should be anything but. That being said, he's coming at near punt prices on FanDuel and is still affordable on DraftKings. Good matchup and in an uptempo game should have him as a popular start.
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 32.84 DK Proj. Pts - 34.3
Was a little bullish on his minutes going into last night's game against Memphis and he came up short in that department when Skiles rode him on the bench for a long stretch in the first half. If he's not running in the mid-to-upper thirties then his value takes a hit especially considering the Bucks are an above average team against shooting guards. Dipo though does typically give himself a higher fantasy floor because he contributes in a number of different ways.
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 31.33 DK Proj. Pts - 33.17
I have him on here mostly for the minutes. Middleton's seen a steep price climb over the last couple of weeks because he's been shooting a ton (19 looks per game over his last 5) thanks to a steady run of minutes. He's not high, high up in our system in terms of points/$ multipliers, but you could very well be in a situation where so many punt plays exist that paying a little over market value for his kind of floor is worth it.
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Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 25.24 DK Proj. Pts - 27.99
Big Bob is with the starters (for now) and ha some trust coming from Brett Brown in how they're deploying him in rotations (for now). The Sixers are a tough bunch to predict when it comes to said rotations and guys have a tendency to get minutes buzzed without warning. Have to stay prepared for the eventuality, but for now Covington looks like a strong play. This game is between the 4th and 4th fastest teams in the league and that kind of pace will really favors Covington's shot volume. He's pretty much a must play on FanDuel. It's a bit closer on DraftKings.
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 37.42 DK Proj. Pts - 39.74
I don't love it, believe me but this is such a weird slate. I keep saying it and I'll say it again before the end, but making the money work on this one will be a challenge. There are simply too many cheap guys that you'll almost definitely need to roster some less than EV+ play in order to just cap out raw points on the night. It's going to be a juggling act. I don't mind George though it's hard to consider him safe. He's facing a weakened, Blake-less Clips squad but PG has struggled to remain consistent. What I like is that the Clippers are in the bottom third of the league in defending opposing small forwards and don't have a good option for matching George's game. Seems risky, but small forward doesn't have a ton of great options.
Strongly consider Tobias Harris
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 23.81 DK Proj. Pts - 24.85
Watching Gordon last night, it's easy to see why the Magic drafted him and confusing to figure why it's taken them so long to get him into the lineup more consistently. In his first start on Saturday, three quick fouls did a number on his minutes. But last night he came out strong, turning in a solid first half on his way to a solid line. If the Magic are committed to his development and running him with the starters then you can easily play him at these prices.
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 23.81 DK Proj. Pts - 24.24
He's playing loads of minutes and is just another of the many, many cheap plays on this slate. Cauley-Stein adds a dimension to the Kings lineup in that he allows Cousins to venture more away from the rim and wreak havoc on opposing defenses. It's one of the reasons Karl's played him many more minutes of late. WCS's average a 10/11 over his last three with blocks and steals thrown in for good measure. This stands to be a high-scoring game and his recent volume put him on the safer side of things.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 35.91 DK Proj. Pts - 37.62
Another guy who falls into the category of "Mid-Priced Guy I Might Play Because So Many Other Cheap Guys Exist". (I'm good at making up categories.) Bosh has a hard fantasy ceiling, but I don't mind his floor tonight considering power forward isn't world-beating after the two guys listed above and there are supreme options at almost every other position.
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 53.99 DK Proj. Pts - 54.66
There are so many excellent cheap options on this slate that fitting Boogie's salary is no thing at all. I'd call him a must play here against the Blazers. Cousins has been on an unreal run of late and before the game against the Hornets has averaged a 36/15/3 against the Pacers, Hawks and Lakers. The Blazers are league average-ish against power forwards and real bad against centers depending on where Boogie's rolling in the rotation. They will have severe matchup issues with Cousins' skill set as he's added the ability to stretch from three, making him a struggle for nearly everyone. His price has climbed in the short term, but he's still a value with how many minutes he's seeing and the production. Must play.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 26.39 DK Proj. Pts - 26.92
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 27.17 DK Proj. Pts - 27.65
Cousins is a PF on DraftKings meaning you are still going to be populating the center position over there. And these two dudes fit the bill. In fact, both are coming in at such insane multipliers relative to price that playing one at C and one in UTIL is for sure an option. Some of it relies on Markieff Morris being out again because the Suns have moved Len to the four to get some more big man minutes up front. Chandler is coming off a rebounding performance for the ages and there's something to the Goodwin, Booker, Tucker, Len, Tyson lineup they've fun for heavy minutes. If Morris is out, these two guys are nearly must plays on DraftKings. They've put up nutso lines over the last two and that could for sure continue against the Sixers tonight if they need to run heavy minutes.
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View Comments
Thanks for the Boban recommendation ...although you came through with Harden...your the best still.
Nothing on Myles Turner's hot hand?
Shhhhh
Hey Phillipe - Ian Mahinmi might come back tonight, so we can't give Myles the complete green light. If Mahinmi's out, though, Turner is a great play.
I saw last night you posted a 337.75 on a DFSR Projected LU ....stupid me did not use exact but cashed! Nice work! Who are your 2 guys tonight that would be in that DFSR LU besides Boogie and PG13?
Thx bro!