Philadelphia 76ers center Jahlil Okafor (8) against Cleveland Cavaliers center Timofey Mozgov (20) during the second half of an NBA basketball game Friday, Nov. 6, 2015, in Cleveland. The Cavaliers won 108-102. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
A snowstorm destroys the Mid-Atlantic, it's the NFL conference championship, and everyone in my house is sick. Yet here we are, writing up another slate of daily fantasy hoops! It's a funny slate today. Some terrific value out there, but also a lot of weirdness to parse as well. Let's cut the preamble. Come on over and warm yourself to some daily fantasy goodness.
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Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 32.47 DK Proj. Pts - 33.28
*sighs and rests his cheeks in his hands* Yes, my love affair with Ish Smith continues. There are so many ways I could go with my Ish love here, but I'll start at my favorite spot. In the month of January, Ish leads the NBA with 14.8 drives per game (per SportVU data). The next highest in the NBA is DeMar DeRozan with 12.8. Fourth place is Russell Wesbrook with 10.5. My man just knows how to get into the lane, and it's paying off from a fantasy perspective. His price has plateaued a little bit because of a little bit of minutes uncertainty. The Sixers have been better with Smith, but they still stink. Still, he should have the ball in his hands a ton in a fast paced match-up with the Celtics, and on a short slate, I'll definitely consider him in any format.
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 40.02 DK Proj. Pts - 42.37
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 44.47 DK Proj. Pts - 46.19
If you're fishing around for safety today, these two guys top my personal charts on the higher end here. Paul's averaged 1.5 fantasy points per minute in his last 3 games, and while this is a tough match-up with the Raptors, he's just completely running every possession in LA right now. He's logged 8.8 minutes per game of time of possession since Blake went down - the best in the league by half a minute per game. Meanwhile, Skinny Kyle Lowry hasn't played fewer than 35 minutes in any game in the new year, and has frequently topped 40+ minutes. You're getting a little discount here since he's coming off of two bad games - it's easy to forget he put up 41+ fantasy points in the 7 straight games preceding those. I love these guys as a 1-2 punch for 50/50s.
Insane upside play: Russell Westbrook. It's almost a guaranteed blow-out, but our projection system thinks he'd be the top play on 36 minutes. Deploy at your own risk.
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 46.06 DK Proj. Pts - 48.66
For such a short slate, shooting guard is looking pretty rich. Sadly, the days of James Harden for $9,300 on FanDuel have passed us by. Thanks a lot 70 point game! Still, Harden remains a more than adequate value even on $10k+. The reasons are pretty simple. Harden has some of the highest usage in the NBA (33.6 this year, per NBA WOWY), and it looks like the Rockets will be without their other superstar (Howard) again in this one. It should be a competitive game with the Mavs, and given that they're a league average match-up against opposing shooting guards, Harden looks awfully safe here.
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 23.86 DK Proj. Pts - 27.1
Speaking of safe! Matthews is on back to back games of little-bit-of-everything-ing his way to 6x points per dollar on these prices. Matthews not only has a high floor due to the various things he can do, he's also got a sneaky ceiling he hasn't quite flexed yet. He's shot 15 times per game in his last 2 with Dirk banged up, and some poor shooting has stopped him from really putting up a monster. Harden and the Rockets have been horrid against opposing shooting guards this year - they've allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season - and Matthews seems as safe as they come.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 25.64 DK Proj. Pts - 27.68
Bradley gets dinged just a little here because of the blow-out potential, but I like him nonetheless. He's basically a rich man's version of Wes Matthews, and he's played 35+ minutes in every game since returning from injury. He's got great upside if things happen to stay close, especially given how turnover prone the Sixers can be in fast paced games. I love him for his upside purposes, but will likely stick with the above guys for safety purposes.
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Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 25.55 DK Proj. Pts - 28.01
Parsons! These numbers seem a little low, frankly, but you've got to remember that A) Dirk has been a little banged up and B) it's important to trust a full season sample over the last two games. Still, I'm feeling optimistic here. Ariza's days as a defensive stopper have long since passed - the Rockets have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season. Parsons has also led the Mavs in shots in the last two games, and looked good doing so. Seems like an appropriate time to ride him in any format.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 25.05 DK Proj. Pts - 27.76
I'd rank him first here, but the minutes feel uncertain to me. The numbers you see here are based on the 30 minute averages he's had since returning from injury, but there's been a lot of weirdness in play that's helped him maintain those minutes. Noel and Sampson left early last game, Grant missed some time... there's really no way to say for sure where Covington is going to wind up. Which is weird, you know, since he's one of the only good players on the team. This is just a high upside play for me unless I hear that he's starting, or Noel or Sampson is out, etc.
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 42.72 DK Proj. Pts - 45.26
Like Westbrook above, Durant gets dinged a little here because it's tough to say whether he'll get his minutes or not. Still, his rotations usually lend themselves to starting the fourth quarter, making him a little more secure than his point guard pal. The Nets don't have anyone that can begin to match up against Durant, and this could get pretty ugly if the Nets get indifferent here. Huge upside play, but I will likely spend up elsewhere for 50/50s.
Also considered: Jae Crowder, though it looks like he has a little case of the NBA flu. If he's going to wind up playing here, I really like him quite a bit even with the blowout risk. If he sits, Evan Turner is a terrific play.
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 24.3 DK Proj. Pts - 24.9
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 24.68 DK Proj. Pts - 25.12
If Howard is out again (and it's looking that way), both of these guys are solid in any format you'd like. Capela was solid and Jones was great against the Bucks, and even though the Mavs aren't nearly as good a match-up for power forwards, this is just a price and opportunity mismatch situation. And it's not like Dirk should terrify you - the Mavs have been basically league average against the position this year. If I had to pick I'd go with Jones since Capela will likely draw Zaza, but either looks fine.
I kinda hate everyone else, but here are a few options. Our system loves Ibaka at the ever reducing price, but man has he been awful from a fantasy perspective recently, even on huge numbers. It also likes Thad Young on 31 minutes, but will he gets 31 minutes in this game with any great frequency? I'd like Noel, but, headaches?! Ugh. I'll be following close to lineup lock, and if I can't play both Rockets guys, I'm not sure what I'll do.
Consider Dirk Nowitzki, if you think he'll go back to playing normal minutes. On the 29 he played last game, though, he looks fairly risky.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 30.34 DK Proj. Pts - 30.7
Okafor will return to Boston, and I have a feeling that he'll forego punching strangers in the street in favor of focusing on basketball. And even with his late night antics, Okafor managed 19 and 9 with 4 blocks in 35 minutes against Boston's front-court potpourri in their last meeting. The Celtics play the 3rd fastest PACE in the league, and don't really have a great answer to Okafor's offensive game. I think he's a fine play anywhere.
Opponent - LAC
FD Proj. Pts - 29.51 DK Proj. Pts - 30.02
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 34.06 DK Proj. Pts - 34.74
You can take your pick from these guys, if our projection system is to be believed. Valancunias has been on a tear recently, averaging 5x points per dollar since January 3rd, and he's been playing consistent minutes as well. His lousy interior defense keeps him from huge minutes, but he doesn't need them on these prices. DeAndre is a bit more speculative, here, but he does have a handful of very nice games with Blake out, and this is a great spot against Valancunias. JV has allowed a 55.6% field goal percentage around the rim this year, a hair behind Mason Plumlee for the highest number allowed among players who have defended 6 or more attempts at the basket per game. Could be a very nice game for him as well.
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