Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 1/23/16

Wow, we have snow-outs in the NBA today! Thankfully the sites have accounted for this, so you're not in danger of playing the wrong guys by accident. Still, it's very odd, and keep an eye out on the off-chance that other games get canceled as well. We lost a few nice plays to the weather today, but there are still plenty of nice ones to keep us warm. We have other weirdness as well, like a bunch of teams that don't matter and then the Cavs with a brand new coach. Let's get it on!

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POINT GUARD

Reggie Jackson - FD 6900 DK 7100
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 33.24 DK Proj. Pts - 34.54
Guys who play 32 minutes a game don't often top our projection system when they cost $6,900, but this is one of those times. This is a match-up made in heaven for Reggie Jackson. The Nuggets have allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, but that's not all. They've also allowed the 6th highest FG% inside 6 feet this season (per SportVU tracking data), and Jackson is 4th in the NBA in drives per game. All signs point to this being a perfect spot to buy him on the relatively cheap.

Emmanuel Mudiay - FD 5100 DK 5800
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 26.23 DK Proj. Pts - 27.31
Gotta love when you can grab a guy whose price doesn't match his opportunity. Mudiay is playing 33-37 minutes per game right now, and has paid at least 4.6x points per dollar in every game since returning from injury, minus one blow-out to the Warriors. The Pistons are a slightly better than league average match-up, having allowed the 11th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, but this is a straight value play - one of the safer 50/50 plays going right now.

Norris Cole - FD 4300 DK 4600
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 19.53 DK Proj. Pts - 20.54
Another punt guy that's probably too good not to mention. Cole looked great in 31 minutes on Thursday, drawing the start with Eric Gordon sidelined for the next 4-6 weeks. I have no reason to think he'll lose this starting job, and while the 8 boards against Detroit were probably an aberration, the 12 points and 7 assists were probably legit. Match-up is meaningless here in what ought to be a close game with the Bucks. I'd be fine with him anywhere.

If Brandon Knight is out again, Archie Goodwin will likely be a must play in all formats. He was great in an incredible 39 minutes against the Spurs.

Damian Lillard is my favorite expensive play, if you want to go that route.

SHOOTING GUARD

Devin Booker - FD 4500 DK 5000
Opponent - ATL
FD Proj. Pts - 21.28 DK Proj. Pts - 24.19
The price continues to climb on Devin Booker, but on FanDuel, this is a case of it not nearly climbing fast enough. He's had back to back games with 40+ minutes and 30+ fantasy points, and all signs point to him being something like a $5,500-$6,200 player with the way the Suns are currently constructed. The Hawks and Kent Bazemore aren't a fantastic match-up, but Booker is learning how to make his own shot, and I think he'll at least pay the projections listed above with room for much more if his shot is falling.

Monta Ellis - FD 6300 DK 6900
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 27.43 DK Proj. Pts - 28.71
It kind of feels weird to recommend Ellis (and I don't recommend him on DraftKings) given that George Hill is coming back, and Ellis' usage drops from 24.9 to 19.4 with Hill on the court this season. Thankfully, the other factors here are pointing in the right direction. The Kings have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season, and Ellis was on a steady streak of paying nearly 5x points per dollar before Hill went down. Not tons of upside, but still safe from where I'm sitting.

Kent Bazemore - FD 5100 DK 5400
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 22.47 DK Proj. Pts - 23.82
Gulp. GoodBaze could be a part of a winning tournament lineup today, but BadBaze could land you in last place. Who will show? Well, our projection system thinks it will be the good version. The Suns have allowed the 7th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season, and are playing without any legit defenders at the moment. Phoenix also plays the 4th fastest PACE in the league, meaning more possessions for everyone involved. Love Bazemore as a shot in the dark upside day at a relatively bad day for the position.

Also considered: Courtney Lee, if Tony Allen is out again.

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SMALL FORWARD

LeBron James - FD 9600 DK 9700
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 42.98 DK Proj. Pts - 44.8
I'm not usually a narrative street kind of guy, typically allowing the numbers tell most of the story on a matchup and a game. But this is a situation where the two things converge to some degree. The Cavs fired Blatt unceremoniously yesterday and though Lebron's camp claims no involvement there, it's nearly impossible to believe. Hot takes abounded with the news and the speculation that it was Lebron's move to bump Lue into the head coaching spot. I suspect Lebron is full force tonight against a Bulls' team very weak against small forwards. He could go full beast mode and the price is advantageous even without the story behind it.

Paul George - FD 8800 DK 9000
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 38.61 DK Proj. Pts - 41.17
He's another way to go if you want to spend up today. There is a fair amount of value at the other positions but you can get away with possibly spending up in both small forward slots on FanDuel. The Kings are one of the worst teams in the league at defending the small forward position and George has been climbing back into his fantasy tier of late. At the time of this writing there was no line for this game, but I suspect it will be high scoring. George could put on a show here as the Kings are so far below average in every statistic against opposing threes.

Marcus Morris - FD 5100 DK 5400
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 23.92 DK Proj. Pts - 25.97
Morris can disappear on you from time to time in the production department but the minutes are there every single night. He struggled against a weak Pelican defense because he couldn't find his shot, but the volume should be there against a Denver squad that's only slightly above average against small forwards this year. The big thing I want to buy on Morris is the minutes. Few other players are nearly guaranteed these kind of minutes as SVG loves running Morris. Looking for him to put up 11--13 shots in this one which could help to easily pay these prices.

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis - FD 10300 DK 10000
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 49.9 DK Proj. Pts - 50.67
You're going to have to spend up somewhere today, so why not on the Brow? Well, I guess there are a few reasons not to play him, what with his missing tons of games this year. Still, we're on five straight games where he's averaged 36 minutes, and he's got back to back with 32+ points from the field. The Bucks are a phenomenal match-up, as they've allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season. I think he takes advantage of their young front court and goes to town, here.

Taj Gibson - FD 4800 DK 5600
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 25.3 DK Proj. Pts - 25.74
Gibson has been mostly great since the disappearance of Noah, but his price has remained depressed largely due to a fluky blowout against the Warriors. Now don't get me wrong - this one could be a blow-out as well, but I can also foresee a scenario where the Bulls go big against a Cavs team that likes to do the same. These projections are if Gibson plays 30 minutes - if he plays 35, he could wind up being one of the top plays of the day on a points per dollar basis.

Pau Gasol - FD 8500 DK 8500
Opponent - CLE
FD Proj. Pts - 41.89 DK Proj. Pts - 42.56
Things get kinda thin after the above two guys, so I'll be considering Pau Gasol again. I know, I know. Twice bitten now after the last two nights, and a tough match-up. Still, there's a lot to like about Gasol right now. Okay, not that much. Mostly just his price. Still, before these last two clunkers Gasol had been good for an automatic 36 minutes a game, and our projection system was liking him at $9,000. Not much has fundamentally changed here, other than the fact that Joakim Noah went out for the year. That should be a good thing. This might wind up being a super weird game given the Cavs new coach, but I think it's a bounceback spot for Gasol. Still, I'll probably just play the above guys.

Also considered: Julius Randle, even if he's been erratic. Still so cheap for a starter with his talent, and he's got some huge games on these prices.

 

CENTER

Andre Drummond - FD 9000 DK 8900
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 42.59 DK Proj. Pts - 43.37
On a night where it's semi-tough to spend up, Drummond looks like a nice way to invest a good chunk of salary. He's got 16+ rebounds in 3 of his last 4 games, and the Nuggets and their rotating cast have allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season. The Nuggets are also in the bottom 10 in the league in contested rebounds per game, whereas the Drummond-led Pistons are the very best. The Nuggets really don't have any great candidates to get Drummond in foul trouble, either. Love this spot for him.

Marc Gasol - FD 8200 DK 7800
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 38.15 DK Proj. Pts - 38.56
Have you seen what Gasol has been up to lately? He's playing 35-41 minutes per game, and is on 5 games in a row where he has outscored his 38 FanDuel fantasy point projection above. He's also shooting a ton more than his season averages, with an average of 17.8 shots per game in his last 7 contests. For whatever reason, his general unsexiness leaves him very affordably priced as well. I don't know if I see Drummond's upside here, but I love his safety.

If Alex Len is starting again, play him. He was phenomenal starting at the 4 when Morris missed their last game, and is severely underpriced if he's going to play 30+ minutes. He's always a foul trouble candidate, but it might be worth the risk.

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