Miami Heats Hassan Whiteside, right, defends against Atlanta Hawks Kent Bazemore in the first quarter of an NBA basketball game Monday, Dec. 14, 2015, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
Hello, fantasy basketball enthusiasts! A quick heads up - James and Doug will be tag-teaming this set of picks tonight. We're here at the FSTA conference in Dallas, and we very nerdily just left the bar early to come back and provide you maximum fantasy value for a monster Wednesday slate. So, I just want to say both "you're welcome" and "thank you" for reading these picks. Enjoy!
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Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 23.86 DK Proj. Pts - 25.28
So, things are going to start off a little awkwardly. I was out this evening and hadn't been monitoring the games very carefully, and I came here to say you're basically giving away money if you don't play Tyler Johnson tonight. Then, I saw how he played against the Bucks. Woof. Still, you're getting a guy who can run up some pretty high shot volume in the right circumstances, and who is almost guaranteed to play 34+ minutes against the Wizards tonight. I wouldn't get spooked by him going full turtle after missing his first six shots. The Wiz play the 5th fastest PACE in the league, and all those extra opportunities should translate to fantasy production. I'm a big time buyer here.
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 33.72 DK Proj. Pts - 34.63
Man-crush alert: Ish Smith has not so quietly turned into one of my favorite players. I don't want to give the full breakdown again like I did the other night just to bore you guys again, but I'll say this - Ish Smith profiles as a legit pass-first point guard in the NBA. The Knicks game went exactly as projected (minus the overtime, which was nice). Calderon couldn't stop Ish from getting in the lane, and once he got there, he was easily able to pick apart the Knicks poor defensive rotations. The result was a 16/7/16 masterpiece and a delightful game for everybody involved. This match-up isn't quite so favorable - the Magic are basically a league average team against opposing point guards, and they have some more athletic guys that could give Ish problems. Still, a guy with the ball in his hands this much is probably worth even more than his already inflated prices. We're still playing him.
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 48.72 DK Proj. Pts - 50.4
Westbrook is a high floor fantasy chameleon. He's had back to back triple doubles where he scored no more than 13 actual points, but been effective for fantasy purposes in both of those. It's what makes Westbrook such an intriguing daily fantasy basketball option, really. He does enough across a diverse body of stats to be high floor, and occasionally puts together the shot volume to give him a high ceiling. I like him quite a bit against Kemba Walker, who is fairly spotty when it comes to his interest in playing defense. Nice big money spend on a night where punts are inevitable.
Also considered: Jordan Clarkson as a big upside play in a fast paced game with the Kings.
Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 24.9 DK Proj. Pts - 27.53
He was buzzed off in run on Monday but we are going to take that as the exception and not the norm. While he isn't the minutes beast we saw early in the season, Fournier was on a nice little string of minutes in the mid 30's until the moderate blowout at the hands of the Hawks. Philly isn't great against opposing shooting guards, allowing 6% more scoring than league average, but this is a nice spot to buy a guy coming off a bad game.
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 44.75 DK Proj. Pts - 47.27
You would think that being gifted an overtime against the Clips on Monday would have been the surefire path to value from the bearded one, but oh no. The fantasy Gods had a different idea. Harden struggled to find a shot and finished with an underwhelming line all things considered. Tonight he'll get a Detroit team above average against shooting guards, but I'm considering Harden mostly on price. His tag has dropped steadily in the short term thanks to some struggles from the field, especially from three. I don't suspect that lasts and I'm wanting to buy when the public perception could be a little low.
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 25.44 DK Proj. Pts - 27.38
Minutes for miles on this guy and as we know in DFS, the run can be the most important thing when considering how to value a guy. Bradley can see upwards of 38 minutes or more in a game and there are few other players in the league locked into as much playing time. He needs it all to hit consistent value, but the scoring's been there as well as the ancillary stats. Toronto isn't an ideal opponent but few other players in this price range are gifted as much love from their coach.
Consider Wesley Matthews
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Opponent - PHI
FD Proj. Pts - 27.97 DK Proj. Pts - 29.63
Can you trust Tobias? Probably not completely and that makes the guy frustrating. He can pull a disappearing act from time to time and that kind of volatility does make one squeamish when thinking about running him out there in safer formats. The minutes have been there in the short term, but he has a higher standard deviation in that number over the course of the season. Though you have to love this matchup against the Sixers tonight. Philly's been terrible against small forwards and power forwards alike, allowing about 15% more points than average to both positions.
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 32.72 DK Proj. Pts - 34.78
He's struggled for the last two games which could be a byproduct of the elbow sprain he's been dealing with. Or it could just be a little run bad. It's tough to say in these situations, though in the NBA I do tend to lean towards a guy being healthy if the team feels the need for big minutes. And Batum's been one of the most worked guys in the league. He's averaging more than 40 minutes a game over his last three. That surely won't continue, but I still like the price nonetheless. I can understand some hesitation based on the recent performance, but I'm trusting the system on this one.
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 24.63 DK Proj. Pts - 26.9
Speaking of minutes like there's no tomorrow, I present you one Mr. Marcus Morris. SVG is back to full trust in this guy and he's been out there for 38, 40, 40 in his last three games. He's also combined the time on the floor with a high volume of shots, averaging about 13 attempts in that time frame. The Rockets have been blitzed by small forwards this season, getting shredded in points, rebounds and assists. This is a great matchup for Morris and I think all three of these small forward plays are a tight grouping in terms of value.
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 43.29 DK Proj. Pts - 44
That's right, I'm recommending Pau against the Warriors. A few reasons. First of all, Pau is positively locked into a 36 minute rotation right now. I think it will take a serious blow-out to pull him out of that, and I'm guessing the emotional high of the Cavs blow-out leads to just enough of a let-down that I don't think a blow-out here is an inevitability. Next, the Warriors have really kind of stunk at defending opposing centers this season. Or at least they've given up a lot of fantasy points to them on account of their fast pace. They've allowed the 8th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season, easily their worst mark against any position. I guess it's not super safe, but I really like this play a lot. I also love Taj Gibson for a lot of similar reasons, but with him it's primarily about the fact that he's playing way more minutes than he's priced for.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 35.94 DK Proj. Pts - 37.59
If safety is your thing, I like Chris Bosh today. He's been consistently (and boringly) in the 31-38 fantasy point per game area all season, and it stands to reason that he should be benefiting shot-wise from the absence of Goran Dragic. While the Wizards have been league average on opposing power forwards this season, this represents a time where it's important to drill down a little further. Both Nene and Gortat are better rim protectors than they are mid-range defenders, and I think Bosh's midrange game will give them some problems here. I'm going to rely more on the pace of the game and the increase in possessions in saying I think Bosh will get what you need from him for 50/50s here.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 18.53 DK Proj. Pts - 20.46
Do you like guys who suck in real life but who are good for fantasy on a points per dollar basis? You should get better acquainted with Patrick Patterson. My man has been playing 30+ minutes on the regular (albeit off the bench), but Carroll's absence has freed up just enough for Patterson to move into fantasy relevance. I like him in this spot in particular largely because of the match-up with the Celtics, who have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season. A nice way to save up and spend up elsewhere.
Consider: Trey Lyles if he gets the start. Likewise for Julius Randle, who becomes something of a must if Larry Nance Jr. is out again.
If he plays, Kristaps Porzingis ranks pretty well even in a tough match-up with Utah. I can't recommend playing him unless you get a clean bill of health on him, though. Foot injuries can be very difficult, especially for big men.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 37.34 DK Proj. Pts - 37.99
Hassan's been on a rebounding tour of late, showcasing this particular skill over the last three games. Hell, he's just been on a fantasy run in general averaging 19/15 in that frame and just kicking a moderate amount of tail (sorry for the saucy language). Whiteside is a guy who simply needs to play typical starter minutes to hit value at these prices. He can score and rebound while chucking in the blocks to really punch for some upside. Washington's above average against centers, but these prices are too low on the big man if the Heat want to get him out there with minutes in the mid 30's.
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 41.84 DK Proj. Pts - 42.6
Sure, I know Dwight Howard put on a scoring and rebounding display for the ages against the Clippers the other night, but that doesn't mean Drummond can't do damage against the Houston center. Houston's been below average against opposing centers this season and Big Dre is a rebounding force. This game has one of the highest expected totals on the night and should feature a solid shot volume. That should spell plenty of rebounding opportunities for Drummond with his price still sitting lower thanks to some recent struggles.
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 48.72 DK Proj. Pts - 49.32
I'm embarrassed in advance to picture Boogie going up against the pale specter of Roy Hibbert. He destroyed the Lakers for 29/10/7 in their last meeting, contributing to the Lakers' worst in the league 50.2 fantasy points per game allowed to opposing centers. It's simply a mismatch of athleticism, here. Hibbert can't begin to stay in front of him, and the other Lakers' bigs just can't match his strength. I'd be happy winding up with Cousins in any format.
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View Comments
I really like d wade on a bounce back tonight against the wizards. He can't be worse than last night, the shots are always there, and no dragic gives him an opportunity for more secondary stats. Hold your nose and go for it with about a 4% ownership?