Denver Nuggets forward Danilo Gallinari (8) goes up for a shot in front of Oklahoma City Thunder forward Serge Ibaka (9) in the first quarter of an NBA basketball game in Oklahoma City, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2015. Oklahoma City won 117-93. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
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Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 23.43 DK Proj. Pts - 24.76
Beno Udrih will sit out again on Tuesday, making Tyler Johnson an obvious play again. Against OKC he played 39 minutes and could see that kind of run again. Without Dragic and Udrih, Miami really doesn't have much in the way of ballhandlers. Even Johnson doesn't strike me as a natural one, but desperate times and all for the Heat. He's basically a lock in cash game lineups for me considering the price and the opportunity. And the 16/6/4 line from Sunday night just gives you all the fuzzy warm feelings as well.
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 33.75 DK Proj. Pts - 35.99
With Eric Bledsoe having been out awhile, Knight has seen the shot volume he should need to hit value. Scoring isn't necessarily the issue for Brandon. It's that he's not doing anything else on the court. In his last two games he's had exactly 5 assists and 2 rebounds, total. That's hot garbage for a guy if he's running the point. It could be some run bad, and if so then we are really buying low on the guy. Because the minutes are for sure there and he is getting shots up early and often. I like buying low on the upside and our system loves him as a play today.
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 25.04 DK Proj. Pts - 26.12
Should be in line for minutes in the mid-to-high thirties again if Jameer Nelson were to sit again tonight. Mudiay is a terrible shooter (both statistically and the way it looks) but he will push the ball and does attempt to get to the hoop. If he's handling the vast majority of the Denver point guard duties then he has a high floor for these prices.
You have to always strongly consider Russell Westbrook and honestly when it all shakes out, he might be my top play. But I just wanted to highlight some of the other solid value at this position tonight.
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 28.8 DK Proj. Pts - 30.05
I like him a great deal more if George Hill were to sit again, but I think Ellis is in play regardless. If he's running the point, then I like how much he'll be handling the ball. But even from the two he's got a great matchup against the Suns. Phoenix is the second worst defensive team in the league by efficiency and gets obliterated by just about every position. There are mouths to feed in Indy on offense, so Ellis can be a little risk/ reward. But he's a fine price considering the minutes.
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 22.2 DK Proj. Pts - 24.45
Shooting guard is a real problem on this short slate and I'm not loving (or even really liking) many of the options. Gordon is here mostly because you will need to play somebody (or two somebodies) and he won't break the bank on you. The Pelicans play him major minutes, but know that Minny's been well above average against opposing shooting guards this season. Gordon really needs the 3-ball volume in order to put up serious points and that hasn't been there a ton for him lately. But again, we need to play someone and he has the most minutes in this price range.
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 18.1 DK Proj. Pts - 20.65
He's still drawing the starting job at the two for the Suns, but he's been garbage the last couple of games. I'm willing to take the risk on FanDuel because his tag won't kill you and the rest of the position is so weak. But it's tough seeing as how bad the Suns are and how difficult it is for them to score.
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 32.07 DK Proj. Pts - 34.61
We were dying laughing the other night when the Denver announcers marveled at how it was the first time in many, many years since Gallo had fouled out of a game. Did we have him in a bunch of lineups? Of course. But this is DFS and we move on from such things. If he's not in foul trouble (wink) then he's got minutes for miles if Denver can keep the game close. And they've shown the willingness to run the offense through Danilo. He'll score in bunches if he gets the shot falling and Vegas has this as the highest projected game total on the slate. His price won't kill you and our system has him as the best points per dollar small forward on FanDuel.
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 39.61 DK Proj. Pts - 42.23
Remember how I said Phoenix is just straight trash on defense? That applies to the projection for PG as well. He's tough to trust because he hasn't been outperforming this price tag in the short term. There is some concern he's playing on tired legs after sitting out the majority of last season. But I'm still willing to roll him in good matchups. This is one of them as Phoenix will have trouble matching Indiana's scoring if the latter gets rolling downhill.
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 43.52 DK Proj. Pts - 46.12
In the right matchup, it's a completely viable strategy to stack Westbrook and Durant together if you think the game will stay close. They just control such an inordinate amount of their team's offense production that if the game is within reach from either side then they are going to see a bunch of minutes and will handle just about every offensive possession while on the court together. Even on the short slate, fitting them both won't be much of a stretch considering some of the savings elsewhere. Durant's been steady of late, though Denver is about average against opposing small forwards.
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 27.94 DK Proj. Pts - 28.87
The Suns look like they are taking Markieff out of the doghouse and this is probably the best time to buy him all season. His price will only climb steadily from here as he's now in the starting lineup again. Check this leading into lineup lock of course, but he ran with the varsity against Minnesota and went 17/5/3 in 34 minutes. Anything in the realm of that kind of run and he's a must play hands down. He'll be in every one of my lineups tonight barring some different news and I suspect he's among the highest owned players on the slate.
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 36.82 DK Proj. Pts - 38.6
He's a high floor-low ceiling kind of guy. The Heat are careful with his minutes and rotations; he'll rarely completely bust if out of the box in terms of run. But he'll also rarely sink you. Bosh has a low standard deviation in terms of his fantasy performance and you can somewhat lock in his type of production. But he won't win you a tournament (most likely). Milwaukee is below average against opposing power forwards, allowing around 11% more scoring than league average to the position. He's most a safety play though.
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 48.62 DK Proj. Pts - 49.36
Oof, I've got PTBSD (Post Traumatic Brow Syndrome). This guy's sunk more DFS lineups over the last couple of years with his in-game bumps and bruises that buzz off his minutes something terrible. It's extremely difficult to trust him in any kind of cash game simply because the injury piece is very real. But when he plays, he logs huge minutes and is among the best fantasy guys in the business. Today he's getting a matchup against a Minny team coming in around league average against power forwards. He's far from a lock of course which is why he's further down the list here. But he's got a great multiplier for his upper tier price range.
Consider Myles Turner and Lavoy Allen if Mahimni we to sit again.
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 37.48 DK Proj. Pts - 38.13
He's the best points per dollar play at the position tonight by a large margin on FanDuel and it's pretty damn close on DraftKings. Whiteside isn't the kind of fantasy center you set and forget. He has a massive deviation in his performances because neither the minutes nor the production are particularly safe. He relies a lot on blocks to jack up the number and those can be hard to come by against certain teams. The rest of the center field is so thin that I'm more than willing to take the risk against an average Milwaukee team, but it's not like he's a lock.
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 22.57 DK Proj. Pts - 23.23
The Nuggets are maddening in how they deploy minutes to players, starters and reserves alike. A guy like Jokic can see anywhere from 13 to 24 minutes depending on the situation. He did start last game against Indiana and looked fantastic in his limited run. He abused Jordan Hill on the interior and it didn't take Jokic long to go 18/3/2/4. But again, Mike Malone jerks things around all the time so playing Nikola is a dice roll for sure.
Possibly consider Jordan Hill if he got the start again for Mahimni
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