Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 1/17/16

2 slates of daily fantasy NBA today, 2 NFL playoff games, including one potential classic - what more could you ask for? Like most 2 slate days, it won't be possible for me to write two complete sets of picks here, but I'll give you the top plays at each position.

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POINT GUARD

Beno Udrih - FD 3800 DK 4000
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 19.93 DK Proj. Pts - 20.57
Tyler Johnson - FD 4400 DK 4600
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 19.86 DK Proj. Pts - 21.02
With Goran Dragic out for at least another game, both of the Miami guards look like fantastic DFS plays in all formats today. Johnson arguably has more upside just because he's the better player, but I mean, Udrih did go off for 11 and 11 and 33 fantasy points in 37 minutes his last time out. The Thunder are also a sneaky great match-up for opposing point guards, allowing the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. Some blowout risk, sure, but the price is too good on Udrih in particular to care.

Russell Westbrook - FD 10400 DK 10600
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 48.24 DK Proj. Pts - 49.87
It feels weird to give Westbrook second billing to the knuckleheads above, but remember - DFS is about points per dollar, not total points. Still, total points matter, especially if you're going to be getting big savings on guys like Udrih. And as far as our projection system is concerned, Westbrok is the guy to pay up on. The reason is pretty simple - yes, the Heat play slow, but Westbrook will be covered in all likelihood by the very Beno Udrih that I'm recommending you play alongside him. He's going off, here, mark my words.

Early slate special: Brandon Knight. So many minutes, so much usage without Bledsoe. Still too cheap, even if the Suns are awful. I like Ricky Rubio too, for that matter.

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden - FD 9500 DK 9900
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 47.21 DK Proj. Pts - 50.22
Seems a little too easy to grab Harden here. He's one of the most reliable guys in terms of both minutes per game and fantasy points per game (per our own internal calculations), and the Lakers have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. What's more, it's a real buying opportunity on Harden after a rough last week or so. DFS is all about finding inefficiencies, and Harden's price is most certainly that.

Monta Ellis - FD 6200 DK 6100
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 29.17 DK Proj. Pts - 30.48
Our projection system loves Ellis tonight. He's averaged nearly 30 FanDuel fantasy points per game in 2016, which is more than adequate production on these prices. Denver's allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. All good reasons. There's a little bonus as well, though. There's talk that George Hill may not travel for this game due to personal reasons, and Ellis will likely be running the point with the first unit. More upside than usual here, and I love him for 50/50s.

Lou Williams - FD 6000 DK 6400
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 27.19 DK Proj. Pts - 29.55
It's a pretty thin night after you get past the first two guys, but I'm at least intrigued by Williams. Chances are good he'll draw Harden, especially if Beverley winds up missing this one. He's still playing 32-35 minutes per night, and as I'm writing this he played a 12 minute first quarter against the Jazz. The guy just plays, and the Lakers frankly don't have many guys that can put shots in the air. The Rockets have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season, so the only real risk to Williams here is that he loses his minutes in a blowout.

SMALL FORWARD

Kawhi Leonard - FD 7800 DK 8200
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 35.61 DK Proj. Pts - 37.09
We recommended Leonard when he squared off against LeBron and the Cavs, and he went out there and got us 5x points per dollar. Leonard's an interesting case tonight because the Mavs don't really give up many points to opposing small forwards, but his price is down nearly 15% from its peak, and the production is still there. In what should be a close game (by the Spurs' standards), Kawhi should play the upper end of his minutes and be involved prominently in all phases of the game.

Danilo Gallinari - FD 7000 DK 7100
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 31.56 DK Proj. Pts - 33.98
Gallo has been the safest thing in a Nuggets uniform (if that's saying much) since returning from injury, and recently he's been locked into a 38 minute high shot volume rotation. He's shooting 15-18 shots per game (up from his season average of 13), and if this continues, his price will rise by about 10% across the industry. League average match-up against the Pacers, so this is just a price-based value play.

C.J. Miles - FD 4400 DK 5100
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 22.51 DK Proj. Pts - 25.2
Yup, I'm going back down the Miles train again on Sunday. Small forward is really pretty lousy, and while I supposed you could make a case for playing Durant here, I will probably wind up trying to get away from the position cheaply. Even with last game's dud, Miles has averaged better than 5x points per dollar in his last 5 games, and his price hasn't caught up to his 27-32 minutes per game rotation. It's a league average match-up with Gallinari, and he should be a safe 50/50 play.

Also considered: Paul George.

POWER FORWARD

Darrell Arthur - FD 4300 DK 4700
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 20.53 DK Proj. Pts - 21.43
A ray of sunshine at at otherwise dark position. Arthur scored 30+ fantasy points with Nurkic out on Friday, and with Arthur looking to be the probable starter once again, he's looking like a must play. He hasn't paid less than 4x on this price in any game where he's played 26 or more minutes, and he has a few huge performances mixed in there as well. Love him in a league average match-up here.

LaMarcus Aldridge - FD 7100 DK 7000
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 34.86 DK Proj. Pts - 35.66
It's just a bad price on Aldridge right now. His price dipped a little more after a no-show against the Cavaliers, but he had just come off of a three game stretch where he shot an average of 18 shots per game. Aldridge also represents a terrible match-up for Dirk, who should have trouble chasing him around in the mid-range. On a tough night at the position, I'll likely play Aldridge everywhere.

Also considered: Chris Bosh, though it's not a high upside play against Ibaka. Keep an eye on Clint Capela and Terrence Jones if Dwight Howard winds up not making a go of it.

Early slate play: Markieff Morris!

 

CENTER

Hassan Whiteside - FD 7800 DK 7400
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 31.62 DK Proj. Pts - 32.17
Whiteside is funny tonight, because while I never trust the minutes, you really don't have many (any) other good options. He'll be on a few radars after pouring in 62 fantasy points on a points/rebounds/blocks triple double against the Nuggets on Friday. The Thunder have been awfully tough on opposing centers this season, but Whiteside's a pretty unusual case. He's second in the league when it comes to contested rebounds, and the very best at blocks per field goal defended at the rim. Westbrook, Durant, and Waiters all like to get to the rim. Again, though - I just don't know who else you are even supposed to play on the late slate here unless Dwight gives it a go.

Dwight Howard - FD 8200 DK 7700
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 37.35 DK Proj. Pts - 38.01
There's some concern that Howard will miss this one, but if he doesn't he should positively abuse Roy Hibbert and company. He went for 15 and 16 in just 25 minutes against them in their last meeting, and the Lakers have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season. Keep an eye on the injury news, though, as it wouldn't shock me at all if they just give him a game off.

Consider Tim Duncan, but only if you trust that the last 2 games minutes will inform how much he plays here. I don't.

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