Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
TGIF! Friday means a lot of things to a lot of people. The last day of the work week. The last day of the school week. When I was a kid, it meant bad TV on Nickelodeon that I somehow really looked forward to. Clarissa explains it all, Are you Afraid of the Dark?, and the rest. Now, it means a big ol' slate of NBA daily fantasy basketball. The NBA is riddled with uncertainty and injuries right now, and while that creates a lot of value, it also creates plenty of uncertainty. Let's figure it all out, shall we?
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Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 49.45 DK Proj. Pts - 51.23
A bizarre game from Westbrook in his last outing will have a lot of casual players feeling gunshy, but not us. It was a bizarre game in all respects, and Westbrook's role was entirely atypical. He shot 3 times and didn't score in 15 minutes. Methinks that won't be the case in this match-up with the Timberwolves. Their Rubio-led point guard defense has allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, and their rim protection is suspect. I think he's a fine play anywhere, especially coming off of his 0 point performance.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 33.7 DK Proj. Pts - 35.64
After a brief bout with food poisoning, Knight should be back in line for 35-40 minutes in a fast paced game against Boston. And considering he's on a team with no other players who can play basketball at an NBA level, I'd say he's fairly likely to get his here. Now, it's not a terrific match-up even though Boston plays at a relatively fast pace. Avery Bradley will likely be chasing Knight around the court, and that should mean good things. But man, this is really just one of those cases of a mismatch of price and opportunity. Since Bledsoe has been out, Knight has averaged 97 touches per game - second in the NBA behind that Brad Beal-less John Wall. The only real risk here is a Celtics blowout, but this still feels pretty safe to me.
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 37.29 DK Proj. Pts - 40.08
Thomas' price has continued to rise across the industry, so he's something of a better play on DraftKings at the moment. Still, though, you can't really complain with what he's been doing on FanDuel either. He's averaged 20 shots a game in the New Year - 3.3 shots per game more than his season average - and the increased usage has led to increased fantasy performance. Phoenix plays the 3rd fastest PACE in the NBA, meaning Thomas can do more of all of those things he does so well. I don' tknow if he has huge upside on these prices, but there seems to be a huge floor here.
Some interesting punts: Donald Sloan is basically a minimum guy, and he will likely be starting again. I'd also keep an eye on Beno Udrih if Dragic is out again.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 21.33 DK Proj. Pts - 24.24
He played only 29 minutes in a game without Brandon Knight, but Booker was in foul trouble for a lot of the time against Indiana. And it's easy to see why. He's a young player who was taking way too many chances on the defensive end, reaching in and whatnot. But when he got going in the third quarter, it was on and he showcased some of the upside we can expect from this kid going forward. I think he sticks in the starting lineup and sees healthy run against a fast-paced Boston team.
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 24.99 DK Proj. Pts - 27.26
On the flip side of this game, it's often a decent strategy to play dudes facing the Suns. They play the fourth fastest pace in the league and rank 26th in defensive efficiency. Bradley should have plenty of looks. He was putrid from the field against Indiana and still managed to put up around 25 fantasy points (5-17 shooting). I'm all over him, especially considering the kind of minutes he plays in the starting lineup.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 29.01 DK Proj. Pts - 30.29
Washington has slowed his pace down some in the short term, but they are still a below average defensive team and opponents are able to get off a bunch of shots. They've been buzzed by shooting guards this season, allowing 8% more scoring and 7% more rebounds than league average. Ellis can be an up and down product but the run should be there and I think this game stays close.
Also considered: Jimmy Butler, who had a truly unbelievable performance on Thursday night. He'll be a big play against Dallas in a league average match-up for shooting guards. Consideration goes way up if Rose and Pau miss the game.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 23.87 DK Proj. Pts - 27.08
Miles is a pretty unexciting player to root for while you're trolling league pass - but he's a classic unsexy DFS value play. He's playing 27-32 minutes a game right now, and has averaged better than 5x points per dollar in his last 4 games. He's pretty unlikely to put up a huge total on a given night, but if you're trying to guess when his big game might be, this is a fine time to put your chips in the middle. The Wizards have allowed the very most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season, making him a great play in all formats.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 40.87 DK Proj. Pts - 43.8
Same thing as for Miles, above - the Wizards play really fast, and George presents a particularly awful match-up for them. Here's why: with Gortat out, they'll have to avert their tall players' attention to the Pacers' tall players. That's going to almost inevitably league George with someone either too slow or too short to cover him. Big, big upside play here.
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 29.22 DK Proj. Pts - 31.53
Buy low candidate? As one of the 7 people who watched the Bulls/Sixers game last night (well, to be fair, we had it on alongside the Cavs/Spurs games), I can say this - it'd be hard to imagine a player playing a worse game than Mirotic did. When he wasn't busy traveling, or comically attempting a rainbow kick while he was supposed to be dribbling, he was missing shots to the tune of 2/13 from the field. Bad. I get it. Before this game, though, you have to go back to 2015 to find a game where he didn't pay 4x points per dollar on these prices. It's not a fantastic match-up here necessarily, but he is still underpriced even if Pau returns. If Gasol doesn't come back, Mirotic becomes nearly a must play.
Also considered: Nic Batum. No reason to think the minutes don't come back, and it's a nice match-up with the pseudo-hapless Pels.
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 21.08 DK Proj. Pts - 21.88
If he's going to play 27 minutes, our projection system suspects that you'll likely split the difference between his big tournament winning performance and his semi-dud his last time out. Not much else to break down here, other than the fact that the Pacers don't have a ton of guys likely to get Gooden into much foul trouble here.
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 38.72 DK Proj. Pts - 40.42
Another great buying opportunity. Millsap's minutes have been jerked all over the place recently, but not because of anything that we should worry about. Just random blowouts. This game with the Bucks is unlikely to be a blowout, and in close games, Millsap plays 34-35 minutes like clockwork. He had 4 straight games paying 5x points per dollar before this little wonky stretch of minutes. Against a Bucks team that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season, I think he's due for a nice bounceback.
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 47.68 DK Proj. Pts - 48.43
It's hard to call Davis safe, considering how many games he's left early this season. Still, he's once against underpriced for what he does when he plays his full run of minutes. He played 37 in his last game, and is probably a favorite to play even more than that against the Hornets here. The Hornets are both undersized and under-athletic down low, and missing Al Jefferson has them drifting down into becoming a top 10 match-up for opposing 4s from a fantasy perspective this season. Don't be surprised if Davis is the highest scoring player of the day.
If Pau Gasol is out again, you really just need to play Taj Gibson. He seems like a double-double lock with the increased minutes he gets when Pau is out.
Opponent - POR
FD Proj. Pts - 38.66 DK Proj. Pts - 39.22
After a predictable disappearance against the Spurs, Bro-Lo paid 5x against the Knicks, and will be getting back to work in a much more comfortable match-up with what Portland attempts to pass as a front court. The Trail Blazers have allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season, and really don't have anyone that threatens to get him into much foul trouble. He was the safest of safe plays before a tough two game stretch, and he really wasn't terrible even in those bad games. I love him for 50/50s today.
Opponent - PHX
FD Proj. Pts - 22 DK Proj. Pts - 22.55
Amir absolutely brutalized the Pacers in his last time out, and he's really been a steady source of value since the start of the new year. He's a terrific high upside option in this spot with one of the league's fastest paced teams, especially considering how tough the position is overall today.
Again, if Pau is out, Joakim Noah was an absolute animal on Thursday. Can't play him if Pau is back, though.
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