Chris Raybon's Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Divisional Round

Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's terrific article on the final week of the NFL! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obvioulsy, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot.

On the Divisional round slate, the game that sticks out is Cardinals-Packers, which has by far the slate’s highest over/under total (50); no other game has an over/under above 44. I didn’t write up any Packers because there is not much separation between them. I like other QBs better than Aaron Rodgers, but the Packers should be considered in GPP lineups. Although they are more of the “dart-throw” variety. If Davante Adams (knee) does not play, it may spell trouble for Randall Cobb, as he usually kicks outside when Jared Abbrederis (Adams’ likely replacement) enters the game, meaning Cobb could see the shadow treatment from Patrick Peterson. Another possibility if Adams sits is the Packers going with more two-back sets featuring John Kuhn at fullback, which helps the value of Eddie Lacy and James Starks. Keep an eye on Adams’s status as the week progresses.

QUARTERBACK

Carson Palmer - FD 8900 DK 6500
Opponent- GB
Palmer will begin his attempt at a Super Bowl run with a home game against the Packers, who allowed Kirk Cousins to throw for 329 yards en route to the top overall fantasy performance for a QB in the Wild Card round. In the regular season, Palmer finished first in yards per attempt (8.7), fifth in passing yards per game (291.9), and first in total QBR (82.15). Arizona’s team total is 28.5, by far the highest on the Divisional round slate.

Tom Brady - FD 8600 DK 7400
Opponent- KC
Brady will play his first playoff game since last year’s Super Bowl victory against a strong Chiefs defense that shut out Houston last week. However, there is seldom an easy matchup in the playoffs, so it is not a bad idea to bet on Brady and head coach Bill Belichick having devised ways to attack this defense during their two weeks off. During the regular season, Brady led the NFL in TD passes (26) and was fourth in passing yards per game (298.1).

Cam Newton - FD 8700 DK 7500
Opponent- SEA
On a short slate, TDs can swing the pendulum even more than on a large slate, because it’s harder to make up for TDs you don’t have exposure to. Cam Newton has scored 45 combined TDs this season, which accounts for 83% of all Carolina’s offensive TDs this season, while he Panthers’ team total is 23.5, tied for second-highest on the slate. Newton scored over 20 fantasy points when these teams met back in Week 6.

Russell Wilson - FD 8400 DK 6800
Opponent- CAR
Wilson struggled in sub-zero temperatures last week against Minnesota, but only needed 10 points to lead his team to victory. Against the Panthers in much more manageable weather, Seattle will likely need to score a lot more than 10 points, as the Panthers led the NFL in points per game (31.3). When these teams met in Week 6, Wilson had just below 19 fantasy points. Since Week 9, Wilson is completing 66% of his passes for 8.3 yards per attempt with 26 TDs and three interceptions.

RUNNING BACK

David Johnson - FD 8500 DK 6000
Opponent- GB
At a point in the season where injuries have devolved most backfields into full-blown committees, Johnson is far and away the best RB play of the divisional round. Since taking over the starting job in Week 13, Johnson is averaging 21.4 touches for 131.6 total yards and 1.0 TDs per game. The Packers are ranked 19th in rush defense DVOA and permitted 171 yards on 24 touches to Washington’s RBs last week.

Fitzgerald Toussaint - FD 6200 DK 4200
Opponent- DEN
As of this writing, it looks like DeAngelo Williams is a long shot to play, which should again open the door for Toussaint. Last week, Toussaint out-touched Jordan Todman 21-11, racking up 118 yards in the process. Toussaint also racked up eight targets last week, which is notable since Ben Roethlisberger’s arm strength will be compromised and the Broncos allowed the eighth most receptions to RBs this season (96).

Jonathan Stewart - FD 6300 DK 5800
Opponent- SEA
Prior to an injury that forced him out in Week 14, Stewart had carried 20 or more times in eight consecutive games. That streak started in Week 6 with a 20-78-2 line against the Seahawks. With a month of a rest, I’m willing to put my money on Stewart as a clear lead back over some of the more unpredictable committee options, especially since J-Stew has already proven he can have fantasy success against Seattle’s stout run defense. The Panthers are also home favorites, which is always good news for a RB in fantasy.

Christine Michael - FD 6500 DK 4600
Opponent- CAR
Again, with RBs in daily fantasy, volume is king. In last week’s 10-9 Wild Card win against Minnesota, Michael touched the ball 22 times, while the rest of the Seahawks’ backfield combined to touch it once (Fred Jackson). Bryce Brown (previously Michael’s biggest threat for carries) got no touches. Over his last two games, Michael is averaging 19.5 touches for 96 total yards. The Panthers rank a middling 16th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

 

WIDE RECEIVER

Michael Floyd - FD 6500 DK 5100
Opponent- GB
With five 100-yard games over his last eight, Floyd is one of the to dollar-for-dollar plays on the Divisional round slate, regardless of position. Since Week 8, Floyd leads the Cardinals in receiving yards and is tied for the team lead in receiving TDs. The Redskins rank 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Doug Baldwin - FD 7400 DK 6800
Opponent- CAR
Baldwin lines up in the slot on 83% of his routes, while Carolina’s standout cornerback Josh Norman lines up in the slot only 2% of the time (both figures courtesy of PFF). Instead of Norman, Baldwin will likely see a heavy dose of Cortland Finnegan, who is well past his prime and was plucked off the street by the Panthers a few weeks ago. Baldwin has 13 TDs in his last nine games, including last week’s Wild Card game against Minnesota. He has five or more catches in eight of his last nine games.

Demaryius Thomas - FD 8100 DK 7000
Opponent- PIT
Peyton Manning’s return may be looked at as a negative for Denver’s passing attack, but Thomas was actually more productive with Manning under center than with Brock Osweiler. Thomas’s average line with Peyton was 7.3-93.3-0.2, while his average line with Osweiler was 5.3-61.8-0.7. The Steelers rank 32nd in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Emmanuel Sanders - FD 7700 DK 5800
Opponent- PIT
Sanders had a better season than you may think, finishing with a 76-1135-6 line. He finished with less than 60 yards receiving in only 4-of-15 games and eclipsed the 8—yard mark in over half of his games. He had his best game of the season in Week 15 against the Steelers when he caught 10 passes for 181 yards and a TD (albeit with Osweiler, although Sanders’s numbers with Manning and Osweiler are nearly identical). As mentioned above, the Steelers rank dead last in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

 

TIGHT END

Greg Olsen - FD 6500 DK 6900
Opponent- SEA
While Seattle’s defense is certainly stellar, they have been vulnerable to the TE all season. They rank third in overall pass defense DVOA, but just 26th in DVOA versus TEs. When the Vikings needed key plays on their final drive to set up a (now infamous) potential game-winning field goal, they looked to their TE, Kyle Rudolph, who delivered two big plays: one catch and one pass interference penalty. In Week 6, Olsen posted a 7-131-1 line against Seattle. Due to differences in site pricing, Olsen is the top value at the position on FanDuel, where he is actually cheaper than Travis Kelce ($6,600).

Travis Kelce - FD 6600 DK 5100
Opponent- NE
Jeremy Maclin suffered a high-ankle sprain in last week’s win of the Texans and may be only available as a decoy if he plays at all, leaving Kelce likely to be the Chiefs’ primary option in the passing game. In a similar role against a tough Texans pass defense last week, Kelce posted an 8-128 line. The Patriots rank a solid-but-middling 13th in pass defense DVOA. Because of a large pricing discrepancy between sites, Kelce makes for the top value on DraftKings at $1,800 less than Olsen.

Rob Gronkowski - FD 8300 DK 7500
Opponent- KC
The Chiefs defend the TE well, but Gronkowski is matchup-proof. During the regular season, he led all TEs in fantasy points per game, posting averages of 4.8 receptions, 74.8 yards, and 0.7 TDs per game. He also finished third among TEs in red zone targets (19). Due to his high cost, Gronk is best utilized as a GPP play.

 

DEFENSE

New England Patriots
In terms of value, the Patriots are the top option at defense in the Divisional round. They are five-point home favorites against the Chiefs, who have a team total of only 18.5 and are dealing with an injury to their most productive receiver, Jeremy Maclin. Maclin’s injury looms large, because if the rest of the Chiefs’ receivers struggle to get open, the conservative Alex Smith will not hesitate to take sacks; the Patriots finished second in the NFL in sacks during the regular season (49).

Denver Broncos
The league’s top pass defense by both yardage allowed and DVOA will take on a Steelers team that has been bit by the injury bug at the worst possible time. Ben Roethlisberger will likely suit up, but he is dealing with torn ligaments in his shoulder and a shoulder sprain. DeAngelo Williams (ankle) and Antonio Brown (concussion) are on the wrong side of questionable as well. Pittsburgh has the lowest team total on the slate (16.8).

Arizona Cardinals
Targeting the Packers and their 29th-ranked unit in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses did not pay off last week, but the Cardinals are a much better defense than the Redskins. The Cardinals are the largest favorites on the slate (-7), which is one of the primary indicators of a good play at defense in fantasy.

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