Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 1/11/16

Happiest of Mondays! After one of the very weirdest Wild Card Sundays in NFL history, the comparative sanity of daily fantasy basketball is a welcome relief. Monday, unfortunately, brings some weirdness into the NBA sphere as well. There are only 3 games, and one of those is an anything-can-happen lambs-to-the-slaughter Brooklyn/Spurs game. I wouldn't be surprised if Pop just started all of his back-ups and the Spurs still won by 50. Then you have the Warriors, who are a threat to blow basically everyone out. Weirdness and wildness all around. Let's get to it.

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POINT GUARD

John Wall - FD 9900 DK 9400
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 44.96 DK Proj. Pts - 46.15
Wall suffered a right knee bruise on Saturday, but all indications are that he'll be playing against the Bulls on Monday. If he is, he's looking like the big money play of the day. It's the game that's least likely to be a blowout, and Wall is one of the highest floor players around. Yes, he had three fairly bad games recently - but we're talking about floor as it pertains to opportunity. Wall's minutes are secure, his usage is secure (especially without Beal), and he is one of the most featured players in any offense in the NBA. He leads the league in touches per game (98.4) and is 6th in overall time of possession (handling the ball a huge 7.7 minutes per game). I've mentioned this before as well, but these aren't Thibodeau's Bulls - they've allowed the 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. Great play anywhere you can fit him.

Derrick Rose - FD 6300 DK 6000
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 25.06 DK Proj. Pts - 26.63
Bear with me for a second. Yes, Rose is a pale imitation of his former MVP self. But we're now looking at a guy that might be underpriced in the right match-up. The Wizards aren't a phenomenal match-up for point guards necessarily, but with John Wall sort of limpy I think we can give Rose a little bump here. The Wizards still play the 5th fastest PACE in the league, and extra possessions should mean extra opportunity. It looks like Rose is settled into 34-35 minutes a game since returning from injury, so we could be looking at some of his lowest prices of the rest of the season.

Goran Dragic - FD 5500 DK 5800
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 26.23 DK Proj. Pts - 27.69
Are we having fun, yet? Dragic managed to not record a single assist in the Heat's game against the Jazz, but had just paid 6.5x points per dollar on this price in a revenge game against the Suns. Which Dragon will show up tonight? I'm not sure. But I do know that the Warriors play the 2nd fastest PACE in the league, and Dragic thrived in an up-and-down game with the 4th fastest Suns. On a night with precious few options, he's a way to spend cheap at a fairly underwhelming position.

Consider: Shane Larkin, assuming he's still starting for the Nets here. I'd also consider Donald Sloan. Somebody is going to have to play the point guard minutes in this one, and if the Spurs play their starters I'd guess that whoever is the back-up puts up the higher total. I'm keeping an eye on this for big tourneys, mostly.

SHOOTING GUARD

Jimmy Butler - FD 8700 DK 8300
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 37.52 DK Proj. Pts - 39.03
Just because I'm not totally clear on where you're supposed to spend your money today. The Wiz have been slipping down the old "most points allowed to opposing shooting guards" list since Beal went down, and now occupy the 9th position in that particular category. Butler, meanwhile, has paid 40 or more fantasy points in every game since December 28th. Again - a fast paced game and not so many options has Butler looking pretty attractive today.

Garrett Temple - FD 4400 DK 4500
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 19.7 DK Proj. Pts - 20.61
Yep, Monday is a belly-ache day. To some degree, Garrett Temple is like the Bojan Bogdanovic of the shooting guard position. Lots of minutes, not a lot of production. But hey, you can do a lot worse than playing a guy who's going to play 33-36 minutes in what should be a fast paced game for a team without a lot of options. Jimmy Butler has been insanely tough on opposing shooting guards this season, but this is more a function of price and opportunity than anything else. I'll hold my nose and go for it, in all likelihood.

I don't like Klay Thompson against Miami. So many risky factors here. Miami plays slow, which should mean fewer possessions for the Warriors guys. Thompson came crashing back down to Earth with the re-emergence of full-minutes-Steph last game. Blech. I'll play the above guys unless I'm in a serious money pinch.

Dwyane Wade - FD 7000 DK 6600
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 31.45 DK Proj. Pts - 31.92
But man, am I going to be cautious here. Things I like: Wade is playing a super fast paced team and will be required to do a lot of his team is supposed to hang. Things I triple-hate: this injury stuff. Wade shot terribly while injuring his shoulder against the Jazz, and I'm going to need some very reassuring news to play him here. It actually makes me want to keep a close eye on Gerald Green - if I get bad news on Wade, I'm figuring Green gets a pile of minutes either in a blow-out or off the bench.

An upside play: Either of the Green brothers - Danny and Gerald. Both very hit or miss, but both could pay huge.

SMALL FORWARD

Nikola Mirotic - FD 5500 DK 5700
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 26.25 DK Proj. Pts - 28.29
I guess it would have been boring if I had just said, "Play every Bull you can today" in the beginning of the picks, but that's sort of how I'm feeling. To be clear about one thing - these numbers are based on Mirotic playing high 20s minutes. If you think the 38 minutes from the Bulls' last tilt is representative of what he'll get here, you'd be lighting money on fire by not playing him. Playing the 3 is really suiting Mirotic this season, as it's letting him roam around the perimeter and not get bodied up by the league's tougher 4s. Should be a great spot for him against Otto Porter Jr.

Otto Porter - FD 6000 DK 6300
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 25.73 DK Proj. Pts - 26.68
Jared Dudley - FD 4200 DK 4400
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 18.84 DK Proj. Pts - 20.63
Take your pick of Wizards small forwards, today. The Bulls have allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season, and both of these fellas have been pretty consistently paying their respective prices recently. If I had to choose, I'd certainly go with Porter. He's more prominently featured in the offense, and he's simply a better player, making it less likely that his minutes will get buzzed off.

Kawhi has crazy upside if people sit or you think the Nets manage to miraculously keep this close. I'll stay away, though, because I think this one is out of hand.

POWER FORWARD

Pau Gasol - FD 8700 DK 8200
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 39.2 DK Proj. Pts - 39.83
Taj Gibson - FD 5100 DK 5900
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 21.26 DK Proj. Pts - 21.61
I have pre-traumatic stress disorder just look at this power forward lineup today. Gasol is head and shoulders about the crowd for me for one reason - the minutes security. He's locked into 34-35 minutes per game, and he's maintaining his shot volume even with Rose back. Taj has been up and down, but he's still priced to have nice upside. Again, a fast paced game should mean more eats for everybody.

Chris Bosh - FD 8000 DK 7800
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 35.76 DK Proj. Pts - 37.39
I'm already nauseous. On the surface, this looks like a terrible spot. Draymond can definitely chase Bosh around, and there's severe blowout risk on account of Wade's potential injury. Still, the options at power forward are terrible enough that Bosh is worth consideration. Bosh is carrying more of the offensive load than at any point during his time with the Heat, and they'll need him if they're even going to keep this remotely close. Far from a sure thing, but then, who is?

Also considered: Aldridge, if you think the minutes get there. I don't.
 

CENTER

Marcin Gortat - FD 6900 DK 6700
Opponent - CHI
FD Proj. Pts - 33.55 DK Proj. Pts - 34.09
If safety is your thing today, this one doesn't look particularly close. He's reasonably priced for his production, first of all. It's been a month since he didn't pay 4x points per dollar on these prices. What's more, I think this is a terrific match-up for him. The Bulls continue to play without a true center, and they've now allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season. I'll play Gortat in all my 50/50s and double-ups.

Andrew Bogut - FD 4200 DK 4600
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 20.68 DK Proj. Pts - 21.06
And it's a distant, distant 2nd. The only thing I like here is that Bogut might get increased minutes to deal with Whiteside, as he's one of the few guys in the league that should give Draymond and the small-ball Dubs trouble. Still, this is a home-run play, and more of a gut feeling than anything.

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