Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Happy Sunday, dear friends! It's been a while since I've written you, and I hope you've been well. Just a heads up - Doug and I will be tag-teaming tonight's picks so we can run and watch the Steelers game. We will still bring the very hottest fire we know how, but in case any of these picks wind up sucking, you can go ahead and email Doug at doug@dailyfantasysportsrankings.com. Also - we won't be able to give you a full Awesome? Awesome. Go time!
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Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 30.51 DK Proj. Pts - 31.78
With Mike Conley wearing a walking boot this week, it's looking like he'll probably miss Saturday's game as well. We're not quite ready to call (sometimes) Super Mario the second coming or anything, but in two games he's done us the service of showing us both his ceiling and his floor. His ceiling wins you big tournaments, and his floor was still 21 fantasy points. As far as our projection system is concerned, he's a must play in 50/50s and double-ups.
Opponent - OKC
FD Proj. Pts - 40.31 DK Proj. Pts - 43.55
Back from the dead! Lillard went off for an insane 40/3/10 against the Warriors, so I guess you could say he's feeling a little bit better. Lillard was a guy our projection system liked early in the season because it was projecting him for dramatically more usage this season, and if the last two games are any indicator, it was spot on. He's shot 52 times in his last two games, and it's looking like he's ready to move up to being a $9,500-$10,000 player. The Thunder have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, making Lillard a terrific play in all formats.
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 36.92 DK Proj. Pts - 39.47
We're on three straight bad shooting performances for Thomas, and it's caused his price to tick downward a bit. But really, has that much changed? He's put 55 shots in the air in his last 3 contests, and his point total last game was driven down by the unfortunate circumstance of his teammates not cashing in on any but 1 of his potential assists. The Grizzlies are far from a phenomenal match-up, mostly due to their slow pace, but I'm digging the price and opportunity mismatch here.
If Nic Batum is out again, Jeremy Lin had another phenomenal fantasy performance against the Clippers. I'd play him anywhere if he were starting again.
Opponent - BOS
FD Proj. Pts - 19.37 DK Proj. Pts - 19.81
This play comes with a caveat of course and that is if both Courtney Lee and Conley were to sit out this one. If one of them were out then I think Allen is still in play with a depleted Memphis backcourt. But both would make him near automatic for me. Hey played 38 minutes last game against Denver and would stand to see similar run against his former team. Allen isn't much of a scorer, but he'll do little bits of everything for you and if his run looks to max out then he's a very safe cash game play.
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 22.35 DK Proj. Pts - 24.18
One kind of guy we like to poke fun at around the DFSR offices is the Arron Afflalo type, a guy who can crush the minutes and do very little with his time of the court. Oh he'll score here and there of course. But if the shot isn't dropping then you can pretty much write the guy off. Sure he's had the games with the heavy shot volume though that can disappear quickly. On this slate, with shooting guard a tough position I'm totally fine running him out there because of the minutes. But you should at least moderately prepare for the chance of a stinker.
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 28 DK Proj. Pts - 29.22
I suspect he'll have James Harden guarding him which rates out as excellent news. Houston's been well below average guarding the opposing shooting guard, allowing about 4% more scoring and assists than league average to the position. Ellis plays second fiddle to George's offense but he does enough to get the job done. If Tony Allen falls out of play, I'm on Ellis and Afflalo almost primarily at this position.
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 33.47 DK Proj. Pts - 36.2
It's next to impossible to trust the Nuggets' minutes situation with Mike Malone running the team much like a kiddie recreation league squad where the parents will get pissed if every little tyke doesn't get equal playing time. But Gallo is one of the safe guys. He played the most minutes on the team last game (15% more than the next closest guy) and went 29/8/3 against the Grizz. Charlotte's a decent defensive team against small forwards, but Gallo's been averaging about 15 shots a game over the last four and should continue with that kind of volume.
Opponent - HOU
FD Proj. Pts - 40.76 DK Proj. Pts - 43.48
We had to know PG wouldn't keep up the insane scoring and three-point shooting from him in the early season. He's not Steph after all, but he's still in the superstar category even if the legs are looking anything but fresh these days. Could be a bit of post-injury hangover for the guy which would make sense. I really like him in this matchup which has the second his expected total points on the slate. Houston's been shredded by opposing small forwards this season, allowing about 8% more scoring than league average. It makes sense considering they play at one of the fastest paces in the league with a terrible defensive efficiency. Not a bad place to spend up in George.
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 33.77 DK Proj. Pts - 35.77
You know it's a good day for small forwards when Hayward against the Lakers is third down on the list. Really, I could have swapped these three guys around in any order and it would have made sense. Hayward's been a bit all over the map in the short term, though the Lakers are just the kind of team to set your fantasy watch to. They are a little bit of brutal on defense, ranking worst in the league in Defensive Efficiency by a not-particularly-close margin. There could be a lot of shots for Hayward in this one if both Favors and Hood needed to sit.
Opponent - CHA
FD Proj. Pts - 22.93 DK Proj. Pts - 24.01
With Faried questionable and unlikely to play, we're basically in Darrell Arthur everywhere territory, especially on FanDuel. He's a minimum priced player who almost double-doubled last game - do we really need to give you a bunch of advanced stats and whatnot to convince you? The Hornets have allowed the 9th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season in spite of playing a below average pace, and the cavalcade of big white guys + Marvin Williams piling through the big man rotation isn't exactly scaring anyone here.
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 30.53 DK Proj. Pts - 31.6
The trouble with Porzingis this season has been the minutes, not the per-minute production. With 30+ minutes in each of his last 4 games (including some tough match-ups), it looks like we might finally be in the clear in terms of him having random 17 minute games. Famous last words and all, I know. Still, he's averaged 30.5 fantasy points per game (almost exactly his projection here) in 27 minutes a game this season, and he should have 10%+ more minutes than that tonight against a Bucks team that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season. Love him in all formats.
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 21.97 DK Proj. Pts - 22.31
Our system is pretty clear on one thing today - unless you want to play Anthony Davis, it's probably a day to go pretty cheap at the position. The Better Zeller (tm) has has 3 great games in his last 4 - posting 25.5 fantasy points against the Warriors, 35.75 against the Suns, and 33.75 against the Raptors. Today he'll face the Faried-less Nuggets, who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season even with Faried in the lineup. Seems like a pretty safe play.
A note on Kevin Love - our projection system likes him today, even with a usage downgrade with Kyrie back in the fold. Just a guy to consider against a Philly team that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards this season.
To Brow, or not to Brow? Ain't that the question. After another fast exit on Friday, Glass Joe has now officially soul-crushed the entire DFSR offices approximately 5 times this season due to early exits of one kind or another. Still, our projection system is spitting him out in all of our optimal early slate lineups if you trust the minutes. But if you trust the minutes, you might just be a masochist.
Opponent - MIL
FD Proj. Pts - 22.55 DK Proj. Pts - 22.89
Rolo has been a man possessed recently. Well, that might be overstating things a little bit. But that's the awesome thing about daily fantasy basketball - he doesn't need to be actually good to be a terrific play! The Worse Lopez has averaged 25.5 fantasy points per game in his last 3 contests while playing 34-35 minutes, which is more than adequate production for what you have to pay to get him. The Bucks are basically a league average match-up for opposing centers, so I'm happy to take advantage of what looks like a straight points per dollar inefficiency here.
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 24.41 DK Proj. Pts - 25.75
He's in the starting lineup now for the C's with Sullinger falling out of favor, swapping minutes with Amir Johnson while Kelly got full run. He's easily the top value at the position even against the Grizzlies. It's a time and money thing here even against a team that's well above average defending centers. Sometimes a new found opportunity can trump those stats and if Olynyk is seeing minutes over 30 then you basically have to play him at these salaries. He's averaging 12/6/3 since entering the starting lineup which pays the day.
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View Comments
Bro's, I don't know if I can do the brow today. It's too soon.
lmao Glass Joe. Gonna use that one
All good to use the line, as long as you never draft him.