Detroit Pistons' Andre Drummond (0) scores as San Antonio Spurs defenders Boris Diaw (33) and Patty Mills (8) look on during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2015, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Saturday in the NBA can be an all-day affair. There's a chance to get some Benjamins in on the earlier slate if you want or just wait until the 7PM EST main slate to sweat. It's all good. For today I'm going to mostly focus on the main slate since the early is such a mini little thing. But I'll chuck in a couple of guys you should consider there as well.
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Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 45.16 DK Proj. Pts - 46.33
In many ways Wall is operating without a safety net this season. With the injury to Beal and a variety of other ailments (one being lack of talent) around their roster, Wall is left to perform miracles on a nightly basis just to keep the Wiz in games. That can lead to fantastic stat lines, but it can also trend to a bunch of turnovers if he's forcing the action just a little too much. I don't mind him on this slate considering some of the other point guards are in tougher matchups though and he is a near lock for around 40 minutes a night right now.
Opponent - GSW
FD Proj. Pts - 38.91 DK Proj. Pts - 39.62
Golden State opened as only a six point favorite in this game which I thought seemed a little low. But there is some chance the Kings can hang just a little, or at least enough to get Rondo his minutes. If he's going to push near 40 then you can buy on FanDuel in what is the highest projected over of the night.
Opponent - DET
FD Proj. Pts - 22.47 DK Proj. Pts - 23.55
When you are the second string point guard on the Nets and struggling to get consistent minutes with that squad, then chances are you aren't that great of an NBA player. Such is the case with Larkin who took over the starting point guard slot when Jarrett Jack was lost for the season, but has struggled to find consistency in his game. He's still coming at punt-ish prices and playing enough minutes to warrant a look here.
Early Slate - If Batum is out again then Jeremy Lin is a nice option.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 34.38 DK Proj. Pts - 36
I saw someone tweet "AlltheDipo" yesterday and thought it was fitting. He was a clear play going into the game against the Nets considering Elfrid Payton remained out and the Magic were sorely in need of ball-handlers. Oladipo probably isn't a natural point guard, but for our DFS purposes, that he is handling the rock on the regular means we should keep playing him. Could be in line for a minutes' decrease if Payton comes back, but I still think he's safer at these prices if he's running with the starters.
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 20.69 DK Proj. Pts - 21.76
When Bradley Beal comes back that will surely end the run of Mr. Temple, but for now we can moderately enjoy the dude's major minutes and ever-fluctuating fantasy contribution. He's a big minutes-lack of production guy at times though he has his moments for sure. Shooting guard is such a mess on this evening slate that I'm perfectly happening grabbing Temple's minutes at a low price and hope he scores enough to pay off.
Early Slate Value - Kent Bazemore and Jimmy Buckets
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 25.19 DK Proj. Pts - 27.28
I'm all over Morris on this slate because I think he sees a return to some bigger minutes against the Nets tonight and he's a fantastic value if he's looking at anywhere in the range of mid 30's minutes. Morris will definitely disappear for stretches, especially if the shot isn't falling. But the minutes are what really trump the narrative for me here. Brooklyn is about league average against opposing small forwards and just generally stink on an NBA level. If you look at the recent game log, there's a lot to hate about Morris. But I think that is built into the price and this is a good chance to buy low on a dude who runs for many minutes.
Opponent - WAS
FD Proj. Pts - 28.23 DK Proj. Pts - 29.93
Oh Tobias, my Tobias. What am I going to do with this guy? It's really tough to look at a recent game log like Tobias' and have any faith in playing the guy. The price has dropped significantly over the short term because he's been, well, terrible. But he saw a slight bounce back last night in a game where our system had him ranked very high from a points/$ perspective but I lacked the fortitude to write him up. Won't make that mistake again.
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 18.47 DK Proj. Pts - 20.18
This is one of those situations much like Temple in that he remains a cheap option playing major minutes at a lower price who is a decent shot to hit value. Dudley is still running with the starters and though I contend that he's the least athletic looking player in the entire NBA (or at least one playing enough minutes on League Pass) he still gets the job done for his price (which is locked in around this range).
Early Slate Value - Nikola Mirotic
Opponent - SAC
FD Proj. Pts - 42.35 DK Proj. Pts - 44.82
He's putting together just a fantastic season and because of that the price has climbed to the near breaking point. It's very tough to pay these salaries for a dude who's basically the third offensive option on a team (a historically good offense mind you, but third nonetheless). Now Draymond is a Swiss Army knife and can contribute in a number of ways especially in a game that should be up and down the court. But I wouldn't consider him safe at these prices at all. You are paying up mostly because power forward is a real issue with almost no other decent options.
Opponent - UTA
FD Proj. Pts - 36.06 DK Proj. Pts - 37.68
See what I mean about power forward tonight? It's so gross that I'm considering playing Bosh against one of the best defensive teams in the league. It's just that bad. But there are some savings in the other positions and Bosh strikes me as somewhat safe even in a not-so-great matchup. Though they have Gobert back on a limited basis, the Jazz are still struggling with a lot of injuries and don't have a full front court. Again, this is more about scarcity than actually having a ton of faith in Bosh.
Strongly consider Thad Young
Early Slate Value - Taj Gibson and Pau Gasol
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 43.02 DK Proj. Pts - 43.81
Wait for the price to drop and then start buying. It's a basic concept but sometimes tough to employ in DFS because a price drop is typically associated with other factors (player's losing minutes, player stinks, etc). Drummond has had a couple of down games. The Pistons took a blowout against Orlando and he got in foul trouble against Boston. Tonight he faces a Brooklyn team coming in as one of the worst in the league against opposing centers. They allow about 9% more scoring and 4% more rebounding than league average. I think this is the perfect time to buy a guy like Drummond. Price down, opportunity still there.
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 33.12 DK Proj. Pts - 33.65
I really like Drummond on this slate. But there are a couple of other interesting center options here if you are scared by Mr. Andre. Gortat is an excellent cash game play at these prices because he doesn't deviate greatly from his mean. He'll rarely take you all the way to a tournament win, but his floor is high considering the minutes are there just about every night. The matchup against Orlando is about league average and Vucevic isn't much of a rim protector.
So yeah, basketball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our NBA eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy NBA lineup. It's free, below.
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View Comments
Hey, thank you for the well written, and easy to understand, tip! My line up today almost made it to the top, if it were not for Marcus Morris not playing I wouldve made it! Considering that it's only my 4th fantasy game ever, my daily line up isnt that bad. Keep up the good work! Kudos!