Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 1/8/16

TGIF. Do people still say that? Well I know I do, but for different reasons than the typical working guy. Got to celebrate Fridays around here because they do mean the end of the non-DFS work week, but also because we know a big slate of NBA is coming our way. So yeah, TGIF.

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POINT GUARD

Russell Westbrook - FD 10600 DK 10800
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 50.17 DK Proj. Pts - 52.08
There is a great deal of point guard value on this slate which will make some of the decisions a little tougher. But it's tough to ignore a matchup like this for Westbrook. The Lakers get used and abused by point guards and give up somewhere in the range of 12-14% more scoring and 19% more rebounding than league average to the position. This is what happens when a team plays a fast pace with little regard for anything in the realm of defense (mostly because they don't have the personnel). The only concern here is that the game is over well before the fourth quarter starts and Westbrook doesn't see the minutes.

Mario Chalmers - FD 4900 DK 4600
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 32.53 DK Proj. Pts - 34.14
With Courtney Lee already listed as out and Mike Conley looking doubtful it should be all Chalmers on this slate. He filled it up the other night against the Thunder with a crazy 23/9/8 line off the bench that crushed his price. I'm not pencilling him in for the same production, but there's a good chance he's in the starting lineup now with the Grizz back court looking really depleted. I suspect, short of there sprouting up a ton of other punt plays, that Chalmers is one of the highest owned players on the slate.

Kyrie Irving - FD 7800 DK 6900
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 36.31 DK Proj. Pts - 38.4
It looks like the minutes' restriction is off huh? Kyrie's torn it up over the last couple of games and is a near must start on DraftKings. The price is closer on FanDuel but this is why it's great to play a couple of different sites. The pricing differences create natural hedges and Kyrie is a perfect time to take advantage. He's crushed his last two averaging a 28/5/5 line. Love the matchup against Minny and Uncle Drew looks like he's rounding back to pre-injury form.

Brandon Knight - FD 6800 DK 7500
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 34.42 DK Proj. Pts - 36.5
Though the Suns' minutes are an ever-fluctuating DFS nightmare, Knight is one of the few dudes secure in his run. He's really their only player with a set-in-stone playing situation and Hornacek is fine running the guy out there for major minutes. He isn't the most consistent fellow in the bunch and has a cast of characters around him who are always in play for a major blow out (going the wrong way). But I'm a fan of Knight's in DFS terms where the price is low enough on FanDuel to be considered somewhat safe.

Consider Jose Calderon and Goran Dragic at cheaper prices.

 

SHOOTING GUARD

Victor Oladipo - FD 6000 DK 6600
Opponent - BKN
FD Proj. Pts - 30.77 DK Proj. Pts - 32.24
It really looks like he's going to stick in the starting lineup even if Elfrid Payton were to get cleared to play. The Magic have put together a nice little losing streak over the short term, but Brooklyn is the kind of team you right your ship to. If Payton were to come back, I don't think you'd see Dipo playing minutes in the 40's again, but mid 30's more than gets the job done. He does enough across the stat line to keep the floor high, especially if he's handling the ball up the court.

Devin Booker - FD 3900 DK 4700
Opponent - MIA
FD Proj. Pts - 18.74 DK Proj. Pts - 21.18
The Suns are very much a hot-hand kind of team in that they will sort of just go with whoever is doing fine enough on the court at a given time. That's putting it lightly of course, but projecting their rotation minutes is a disaster. Booker is talented and cheap. Those two things he has going for him and on Tuesday facing the Hornets he put up a 17/10 line. But it was off the bench because Ronnie Price started. It's a speculative play, but I like the upside.

Tony Allen - FD 4000 DK 3800
Opponent - DEN
FD Proj. Pts - 20.19 DK Proj. Pts - 20.67
Like I said with Conley, the Grizzlies' back court is real thin right now and Allen could be in line for a healthy run of minutes out of the two if Lee and Conley both sit. He isn't much of a scorer, but makes up for it on the defensive end and chipping in across the stat line. I'm interested mostly in the price and playing time here as I think it's tough to spend up at shooting guard.

 

SMALL FORWARD

Kevin Durant - FD 10100 DK 10300
Opponent - LAL
FD Proj. Pts - 45.71 DK Proj. Pts - 48.49
Like I said with Westbrook above, it's tough to count out anyone against the Lakers. They are just that bad. I'm even a proponent here of possibly playing Durant and Westbrook together in cash games. There's some chance they both hit value even in a limited run if OKC can really get off to the races against the Lakers. Durant went 26/17/3 in only 33 minutes against the Grizzlies on Wednesday. That kind of line is very much in play again here with LA playing below average against small forwards.

Danilo Gallinari - FD 7100 DK 7100
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 32.38 DK Proj. Pts - 34.83
There's a perception that the Grizzlies are a great defensive team mostly because they've been one in the past. That isn't the case this year. They're playing more small ball lineups and have a defensive efficiency right around league average. They are below average in defending opposing small forwards and that's where Gallo comes in. Danilo is playing minutes in the mid 30's since coming back from injury and has picked right back up with the scoring load, averaging a 24/6/3. I like the mid tier pricing especially if a bunch of punts don't surface throughout the day.

Paul George - FD 8800 DK 9100
Opponent - NOP
FD Proj. Pts - 39.45 DK Proj. Pts - 41.88
George is in a fantastic matchup tonight considering the Pelicans are making a strong run at the Lakers for the worst defensive team in the league. It might really come down to the wire with those two squads. PG went through a serious dry spell over the last few weeks but is rounding back into shape over his last four averaging a 29/9/3 line in that stretch. He's getting back to superstar levels and this isn't the kind of matchup that slows players down.

Bojan Bogdanovic - FD 4400 DK 4900
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 19.62 DK Proj. Pts - 21.49
There are some players in the league who can play a million minutes and seem to do very little on the court. Bojan is one of those guys. He needs every second of run to hit value, but he's getting it of late. The Nets are content giving him minutes in the mid 30's and there will be games in which the three ball is dropping for him. The Magic are a below average defensive team and no one is really pushing up against Bojan's minutes.

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis - FD 10400 DK 10600
Opponent - IND
FD Proj. Pts - 49.67 DK Proj. Pts - 50.43
Not a whole lot to say about Davis at this point. A quick look at his recent game log tells you pretty much all you need to know. When he's playing high 30s/low 40s minutes, he really ought to be an $11,000 player. It's not a terrific match-up with Indiana, but it ought to be a close game. Close games mean big minutes - and you can count on Brow in any 50/50 or double-up tomorrow.

Tristan Thompson - FD 4600 DK 5200
Opponent - MIN
FD Proj. Pts - 22.58 DK Proj. Pts - 23.09
One of those weird situations where FanDuel in particular is refusing to acknowledge that Thompson is playing a starter's minutes right now. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Cleveland, so it's fairly unlikely that Thompson will go out there and put up 40 fantasy points or anything. The good news is, he doesn't really need to do that to pay these paltry prices. Our projection system likes him for a low double-double total tonight, making him a solid play in formats where you'd like to prioritize safety.

Jabari Parker - FD 4600 DK 4700
Opponent - DAL
FD Proj. Pts - 22.42 DK Proj. Pts - 23.16
Parker falls somewhat into the same category as Thompson above. He appears locked in to starter's minutes for the Bucks at the four (or as locked in as anyone can be under Jason Kidd). But like Thompson, he's far down the list in terms of offensive options. It means that while somewhat of a safer play, he's unlikely to hit a total home run. Dallas isn't fantastic against opposing power forwards, allowing worse than league average production in both scoring and rebounding to the position and Parker has a higher floor at these salaries and minutes.

Kristaps Porzingis - FD 6200 DK 6400
Opponent - SAS
FD Proj. Pts - 30.85 DK Proj. Pts - 31.83
This one's more of your GPP threat guy. Zinger's price has come down after a sick early season run though the minutes appear to be leveling off. He's still getting shots up, but has been struggling from the field. It's caused his scoring to dip. If the shot is falling, especially the three (which he's putting up about 3 times a game) then I can envision a scenario where he really dusts these prices. But the Knicks could get waxed by the Spurs and Kristaps plays 20 or so minutes. That's why I worry about the safety.

 

CENTER

Marcin Gortat - FD 6900 DK 6800
Opponent - TOR
FD Proj. Pts - 33.2 DK Proj. Pts - 33.73
Let's all hope Jonas Valanciunas draws the start here. He's one of the worst defensive centers in the league and Gortat could (and should) have his way down low (get your head out of the gutter). If the game stays close, it has one of the higher projected totals on the night. Center is a bit funky on this slate, and Gortat is coming off some tougher matchups that hurt his overall lines. This is a good time to start playing him again.

Brook Lopez - FD 8700 DK 7900
Opponent - ORL
FD Proj. Pts - 39.97 DK Proj. Pts - 40.54
Like Valanciunas above, Nikola Vucevic struggles on the defensive end and has a lot of trouble contesting opposing centers for rebounds. That's just one of the reasons Orlando is below average against the position. I like Lopez's price more on DraftKings and will likely roll him out in my cash games over there. It's closer on FanDuel, but if you think he continues seeing minutes in the high 30's then there's a lot of safety in this goofy dude.

Jusuf Nurkic - FD 4300 DK 4800
Opponent - MEM
FD Proj. Pts - 23.45 DK Proj. Pts - 23.78
How many per-minute offensive beasts does one team need when said team doesn't appear interested in playing said per-minutes' beasts any meaningful minutes? You follow? Good. Nurkic (like King Joffrey and Jokic before him) looks to absolutely crush in the limited time Malone and company get him on the court. Last game it was 15/10/2/5 in just 22 minutes. Ok. Memphis is a tough matchup, but I don't mind running him out there in some tournaments.

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