Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 1/4/16

So, I'm feeling a little grumpy tonight. Jimmy Butler puts up 40 in the 2nd half against the Raptors, Arron Afflalo goes off the game after we spot playing him, the Knicks inexplicably blow out a team that blew them out last week, and DeAngelo Williams' injury cost me big bucks in football. Apologies for the grumpy beginning to these picks - I'll try and turn it around for you. Deep breaths. You got this, James. You can do it. Let's go.

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POINT GUARD

Rajon Rondo - FD 7800 DK 8400
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 38.01 DK Proj. Pts - 38.72
Russell Westbrook - FD 10700 DK 10700
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 49.83 DK Proj. Pts - 51.65
My two favorite more expensive point guards of the night. In their last meeting, Westbrook triple-doubled, and Rondo came a bad shooting night away from doing the same. Both teams are in the top 9 in terms of most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards allowed this season, and I suspect this will be another fast paced and relatively close game for them to put up some numbers. Fine plays in any format, though Westbrook is safer in the event that the Thunder blow the Kings out.

Ish Smith - FD 5700 DK 6900
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 31.64 DK Proj. Pts - 32.55
Two terrible games for Ish in a row leave a lot of daily fantasy basketball owners with shaky hands, but will you join them? Ish has been averaging 15+ shots a game as the starter in Philly, and unless his recent 5/28 shooting streak continues, it's going to be awfully tough to justify his FanDuel price here for long. The DK price is pretty much fair, though, and I wouldn't play him there. Still, this should be a nice high floor spot for him to bounce back. The Wolves have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season, and this should be a nice minutes bounce back. I love Ish in any format.

Patty Mills - FD 3800 DK 3700
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 18.98 DK Proj. Pts - 20.64
Mills was the primary beneficiary of Tony Parker's last game, putting up 22 points in 21 minutes of action in a blowout against the Lakers. He likely lost minutes to a blowout in that game, and we're expecting he'll play more like 26 minutes in this game against the Bucks. There's some chance that the Spurs go with Ray McCallum in the starting lineup on Monday, and this projection is not quite as good if that's the case. Still, this is a nice price/opportunity mismatch.

Keep an eye on Jeremy Lin if Nic Batum is out again, even in an awful spot against the Warriors. Likewise for Shaun Livingston if Steph Curry is out again.

SHOOTING GUARD

Klay Thompson - FD 7600 DK 7800
Opponent - CHA FD Proj. Pts - 36.44 DK Proj. Pts - 40.49
With Steph questionable on Monday, it's looking very likely that the majority of the offensive load will fall to Thompson and Draymond Green once again. Klay's put 27 shots in the air in each of his last two games, and if that's going to be the norm with Curry out, you're looking at an $8,500 player. Buying opportunity! The Hornets have allowed the 3rd most most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. It doesn't hurt that he'll likely draw Jeremy Lin in this game as well. Fantastic play anywhere if Steph is out, and I'm considering him even if Curry plays.

Evan Fournier - FD 5300 DK 5700
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 23.97 DK Proj. Pts - 26.31
It's a pretty dire situation for shooting guards today if our projection system is to be believed. And it's with some modest hesitation that I'm presenting Evan Fournier to you. He's lost minutes in back to back very weird games here. Against Washington he was infuriatingly in foul trouble, and then lost minutes to a hot hand Victor Oladipo. Then the Magic were down 30 at half time to the Cavs. Before those two games, Fournier was a lock for 5x-6x points per dollar on these prices. On a day where the position is just crazy, I'll probably go back to the well one more time.

Gerald Green - FD 3800 DK 4300
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 16.51 DK Proj. Pts - 19.05
It's truly a weird night for shooting guards. I'm not going to be paying up for DeMar DeRozan or James Harden, and with money to spare, I'm looking hard at Gerald Green. The guy plays high 20 minutes in non-blowout games, and it's frequently been more on the second half of back to backs when the Heat are being cautious with D-Wade. I actually think he's a pretty high floor guy, in spite of being so scoring dependent.

Also considered: Monta Ellis.

SMALL FORWARD

Evan Turner - FD 5400 DK 5100
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 26.68 DK Proj. Pts - 27.56
With Avery Bradley likely out on Monday, signs are that Evan Turner will be the primary beneficiary. He played 37 minutes against the Nets, and has averaged better than 5x points per dollar in his last 3 games in spite of not being in the starting lineup. Well, this is nice timing for Turner to get another crack at the Nets out of the two guard slot, as they've allowed the very most most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season. Great play in all formats, assuming we get the news that he's starting.

Kawhi Leonard - FD 8600 DK 8700
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 41.01 DK Proj. Pts - 42.84
Leonard is in the middle of an odd shooting hiatus, but even though it's lasted 4 games - each one is explainable. Three of them were blowouts, and one of them was a tough match-up with Andrew Wiggins. This match-up bears no such concerns. The Bucks have allowed the 3rd most most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards this season, and I think we're looking at a bounceback game in a big way, here.

Tobias Harris - FD 6100 DK 6100
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 28.9 DK Proj. Pts - 30.32
Watching Magic games (yes, we watch Magic games around the DFSR offices more often than we'd like to admit), it's always hard to believe that Harris' line isn't better when it's all said and done. He's now playing solidly 37 minutes (exempting blowouts), and like Fournier, had been on a steady streak of 4.5x-5x points per dollar games before getting embarrassed by LeBron and the Cavs. Now, I don't think this is a very high upside play - the Pistons have allowed a paltry total to opposing small forwards this season. Still, Harris represents a pretty safe play if that's how the money shakes out.

If you want to spend up, the projection system doesn't mind LeBron or Durant. It's too far away from lineup lock to know if it will make sense to play either of them (I'd be delighted to play Turner and Kawhi if they're both starting), but it's something to keep an eye on. Especially Durant - that's a fast paced Sacramento team he's up against.

POWER FORWARD

Tristan Thompson - FD 4600 DK 5200
Opponent - TOR FD Proj. Pts - 24.47 DK Proj. Pts - 25.02
This is a pretty easy one, as far as the projection system is concerned. Thompson is starting as a small ball 5 in Cleveland right now, and he's poised for a big breakout game. Tristan is a phenomenal rebounder - he's averaging 9.9 a game in just 27 minutes per game this season. More, he's a beast when it comes to contested rebounds - he's got the 10th most contested rebounds per game in the NBA. Meanwhile, he'll be up against the reluctant Jonas Valancunias, who is allowing one of the highest opposing field goal totals around the rim this season, at 57.9%. Love Thompson in every single format, and expect his price to climb by 30%+ in the not too distant future.

Nerlens Noel - FD 6300 DK 6700
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 30.13 DK Proj. Pts - 30.6
If there's one guy who's sort of shaking the Philly stink right now, it's Nerlens Noel. The guy has been an absolute elite fantasy force on a per minute basis since joining the starting lineup, even coming close to paying these prices in just 22 minutes while the Sixers were getting blown out by the Clips. Well, the Timberwolves should be a lot less likely to crush his minutes. With any luck, he'll get some reps against Gorgui Dieng as well, whose 55% FG% allowed near the rim is only a little better than the defensively challenged Jonas Valancunias. Love Noel anywhere.

Chris Bosh - FD 7500 DK 7500
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 35.15 DK Proj. Pts - 36.85
This is one of those odd and weird plays, where you can take a guy whose price hasn't changed much in a relatively bad match-up. It's because Bosh's role has changed in an unconventional way - he's just getting a lot more looks at the basket than he had been. Most models will be based on his 13.8 shots per game average, but he's averaged 17.5 shots per game in his last 8 contests, and it's been working. I don't think you can call him a huge ceiling guy (certainly nothing like the guys above), but I can see a great case for playing him in 50/50s today.

Two cheap speculative guys: Frank Kamisnky and Jerami Grant. Both are seeing extra minutes due to weird team situations, but both could lay an egg as well. You've been warned, or something.

CENTER

Hassan Whiteside - FD 7500 DK 7400
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 36.75 DK Proj. Pts - 37.39
Whiteside was our top recommendation at the position last night, and only got to destroy Marcin Gortat for 3 quarters before the game was out of hand. The question with Hassan is never the talent, it's always the opportunity. It seems as though Spoelstra finally trusts him for 30+ minutes per game, and if that's the case, we're looking at an $8,000 player in short order. In a league average match-up with the Pacers, I expect these projected numbers to be on the low end of what we could see here.

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 9700 DK 10100
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 45.96 DK Proj. Pts - 46.51
Feels kinda risky, but it's an interesting big tournament play for me. Cousins wasn't great against the Thunder in their last meeting, but he did get 20 shots in the air and looked like he could handle Adams and company down low. I'm not sure I can invest $10k on him if I'm looking for safety, but the position honestly doesn't offer a lot of safety today. I suppose we'll see.

Amir Johnson - FD 4200 DK 4400
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 20.47 DK Proj. Pts - 20.97
Johnson, like most centers, destroyed the Nets in their last meeting. It makes sense, the Nets have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing centers this season. Amir is an interesting guy right now, because all signs are pointing to him getting a few extra minutes than we were used to seeing for awhile there. If he's a mid-high twenty minutes guy he's one of the safest plays in the game at this price, and if we get more than that, he could be a part of winning tournament lineups tomorrow.

Our system likes Nikola Vucevic, whose price has dropped after two less than stellar games. I personally feel like Drummond is a bad match-up for him, as Vucevic relies a great deal on uncontested rebounds to get his rebounding points. I'll probably stay away, against my better judgment.

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