Chris Raybon's Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 17

Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's terrific article on the final week of the NFL! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obvioulsy, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot.

Week 17 DFS can be tricky. Some teams are still fighting for playoff spots, some are eliminated, and some may even have an incentive to lose. 2015’s Week 17 will be kinder than most, with most playoff teams still fighting for seeding.

The only playoff team that has absolutely nothing to play for is the Redskins, who have the 4th seed in the NFC locked up. They have indicated they may rest players, so act accordingly.

There are some other games with no playoff implications where teams are still expected to play their starters, and these games have high over/under totals: Giants-Eagles (51.5) and Saints-Falcons (52.5). Players from these games may be under owned due to fears that they do not have any playoff implications.

As a final note, the Browns and Titans are tied for the NFL’s worst record, so both would actually benefit from losing. The Steelers and Colts defenses, respectively, make for interesting GPP targets because of this.

QUARTERBACK

Eli Manning - FD 7500 DK 5600
Opponent- PHI
Manning will close the season against the Eagles, who rank 31st in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. Over their last six games, the Eagles have permitted 300 passing yards and 3.2 passing TDs per game. In Manning’s last six games with Odell Beckham Jr., he is averaging 296 passing yards and 2.5 passing TDs per game. The Giants’ team total is over 27 and Manning has accounted for 89% of their offensive TDs this season.

Cam Newton - FD 9100 DK 7500
Opponent- TB
Newton will close out his stellar regular season with a matchup against the Bucs, who rank 25th in pass defense DVOA. The Panthers have a team total of 28.8 and Newton has accounted for 84% of their offensive TDs. The Panthers have to win this game in order to lock up the first seed in the NFC.

Matt Ryan - FD 7600 DK 5500
Opponent- NO
Playing Matt Ryan this season has basically been akin to lighting your bankroll on fire. But if there was ever a time to play Matty Ice, it’s now. The Saints defense ranks dead last in both pass defense DVOA and schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. They have allowed 281 passing yards per game (31st in NFL) and a whopping 2.9 passing TDs per game (32nd in NFL). Currently at 28.3 as of this writing, the Falcons’ team total is uncharacteristically high.

Blake Bortles - FD 8100 DK 6700
Opponent- HOU
The matchup is tough on paper, but Bortles has been a matchup-proof fantasy stud all season. He has failed to account for multiple TDs in only three of 15 games this season and is ranked in the top four among QBs in fantasy points per game. Last time these teams met, Bortles accounted for 368 total yards and three TDs.

RUNNING BACK

Devonta Freeman - FD 8800 DK 7600
Opponent- NO
The top RB in per-game fantasy scoring this season, Freeman will close out the 2015 campaign with a dream matchup against the Saints, who rank 31st in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs and 29th in run defense DVOA. The Saints have allowed the most total TDs in the league, which bodes well for Freeman, who has scored an astounding 41% of Atlanta’s offensive TDs this season.

DeAngelo Williams - FD 8200 DK 7100
Opponent- CLE
Williams continues to put up similar numbers to the man he replaced, Le’Veon Bell. In starts, Williams averages 122 total yards, 1.2 total TDs, and 3.7 receptions per game. The Steelers are 10-point favorites. The Browns rank 28th in run defense DVOA.

Tim Hightower - FD 7000 DK 5500
Opponent- ATL
Hightower is a road underdog, but he is very underpriced considering the amount of volume he has been getting since taking over for Mark Ingram as the Saints’ feature back. Over his last three games, Hightower is averaging 25 touches. The Falcons are ranked 25th in run defense DVOA.

Javorius Allen - FD 6000 DK 4400
Opponent- CIN
Allen is another back that is underpriced relative to his projected volume. Even when you include a Week 16 benching in which he only played nine snaps, Allen is averaging 18.7 touches for 93 total yards and 0.5 total TDs per game over his last six games.

WIDE RECEIVER

Odell Beckham - FD 8900 DK 9000
Opponent- PHI
Beckham will return following a one game suspension to face an Eagles defense that ranks 29th in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. Beckham has scored a TD in five straight games and has 100 yards and/or a TD in seven straight games. New York’s team total is over 27 and OBJ has accounted for over one-third of their offensive TDs this season.

Julio Jones - FD 9300 DK 8500
Opponent- NO
Julio leads the NFL in targets per game (12.8), receptions per game (8.5), and receiving yards per game (114.8). He will face a Saints defense that ranks 31st in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. No team in the NFL has allowed more TDs to WRs than New Orleans (27).

Eric Decker - FD 7400 DK 6500
Opponent- BUFDecker has been the epitome of consistency this season: he has scored a TD in 11-of-14 games and has 80 yards and/or a TD in every single game. This week, he’ll match up against a Buffalo Bills defense that never turned into the dominant force many analysts expected; they rank 23rd in WR aFPA. The Jets need to win this game to ensure a spot in the playoffs.

Nate Washington - FD 5300 DK 3600
Opponent- JAC
Washington has thrived this season when fellow wideout Cecil Shorts has been out. Shorts has already been ruled out for Week 17, making Washington a nice value play. In three games with out Shorts, Washington is averaging 5.3 receptions, 81.3 yards, and 1.3 TDs. The Jaguars rank 31st in pass defense DVOA.

TIGHT END

Zach Ertz - FD 5700 DK 3600
Opponent- NYG
Currently Sam Bradford’s favorite target, Ertz has 30 targets over his last two games. Ertz has five catches and/or a TD in each of the last seven games he has finished (he left after 14 snaps in Week 11 due to injury). The Giants struggle to defend the pass, the middle of the field, and the TE position specifically: they rank 26th in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

Delanie Walker - FD 6500 DK 5600
Opponent- IND
Walker looks to close out his top-three fantasy campaign with a matchup against the Colts, who rank 28th in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs. Walker is averaging 6.1 receptions for 71yards and 0.4 TDs this season. He has six or more catches in 10-of-14 games.

Zach Miller - FD 5900 DK 4600
Opponent- DET
Since Martellus Bennett has gone on IR, Miller has stepped up as a trustworthy target for Jay Cutler. Over Miller’s last three games, he has missed only eight snaps, total. He has caught five or more passes in each of those games for yardage totals of 85, 57, and 69. The Lions rank 32nd in the NFL in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.

DEFENSE

Carolina Panthers
The Panthers will close out the season as double-digit favorites against the Bucs, whose team total is currently sitting at 18.3. Carolina will be playing hard in this game, looking to avenge last week’s loss and lock up home field advantage in the playoffs. The Bucs rank a middling 16th in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to defenses.

St. Louis Rams
The Rams will close out the season in San Francisco, where Blaine Gabbert and the 49ers offense is regressing badly. The 49ers have cleared 17 points only once in their last nine games, and they needed overtime to do it (a 26-20 win against the Bears in Week 13). Rams-49ers has an over/under of 37.5, one of 2015’s lowest. The Rams are 3.5-point favorites; the 49ers’ team total is 17.

New England Patriots
The Patriots are double-digit favorites against a Miami team that has long imploded. The Pats rank second in the NFL in sacks, while the Dolphins have allowed the sixth most sacks in the league. The Patriots still have something to play for after losing a baffling heartbreaker to the Jets last weekend.

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