Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
Well, it's Sunday, and you've caught me on three straight days of writing the picks, and without any interesting or funny things to say. I can imagine that that's both startling and upsetting, and I want to let you know that I wholeheartedly apologize. I am writing these picks while sweating out some potential big tournament winners as well, so let's hope my focus remains in tact to bring the hottest fire humanly possible. Incoming!
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Russell Westbrook - FD 10400 DK 10400
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 50.28 DK Proj. Pts - 52.18
I'm having an impossible time imagining not rolling with Russ in basically every format today. It's the perfect mix of short slate, enough spots to save up, and a fantastic match-up for one of the league's very best players, fantasy or otherwise. Tonight he'll draw the Nuggets of Denver, who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. As though the deal couldn't possibly get sweeter, Jameer Nelson is a downgrade from whom they normally start at point guard. I said it before, and I'll say it again - Westbrook everywhere tonight, unless you just want to go completely against the grain in a big tournament.
Jameer Nelson - FD 4600 DK 5600
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 25.06 DK Proj. Pts - 27.79
The other half of the "no duh" starters for me today. Nelson's recent missed game was on account of illness, and not injury, meaning that we're not especially worried about his minutes or opportunity. Chances are good it was just the NBA flu (you know, the "illness" that NBA players seem to get when they go on the road to a fun town), and that tends to go away after a day or so. Nelson has a few otherworldly games on these prices, but I'd guess we're looking more at a steady 5x points per dollar performance in what should be an up and down game with the Thunder. Another guy I'll play everywhere.
Rajon Rondo - FD 8300 DK 8400
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 38.14 DK Proj. Pts - 38.84
Because I imagine that some of you will simply not want to go with my top recommendations, no matter what I say. Portland has been a lot tougher on opposing point guards this season than they were last season because they're now playing a below average PACE, but Rondo's big minutes and little-bit-of-everything game are great for a nice high floor if you decide to spend up elsewhere instead. Rondo is a much better play on FanDuel, based on the % of salary you have to invest in him.
Allen Crabbe - FD 4200 DK 4600
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 21.51 DK Proj. Pts - 23.93
Shooting guard is something less than the land of opportunity today, but thankfully there are a few underpriced options that we can roll with without guilt. Crabbe tops my personal list. With Lillard out, he's locked into a 30 minute rotation - lots of minutes for a guy this cheap. While Crabbe doesn't create his own shot (or even get open very easily), he's a guy who can take advantage in match-ups with inferior or indifferent defenders. The Sacramento 2-guard defense has been exactly that this season - they've allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards in 2015. On a night wher eyou can't really spend up at the position effectively, I like Crabbe everywhere.
Arron Afflalo - FD 5000 DK 4900
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 23.16 DK Proj. Pts - 24.97
A guy the daily fantasy basketball industry hasn't really caught up to, but thankfully our projection system is ahead of the curve in that regard. It's been recommending Afflalo with some frequency for a while, and a quick look at his game log spells out the case pretty clearly. He's averaged 27 FanDuel fantasy points in his last 6 games, and is actually more well rounded than a lot of other fantasy shooting guard (averaging 5 boards and 3 assists in his last 3 games). He's locked into 34 minutes - what's not to love here?
Will Barton - FD 6700 DK 7000
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 32.94 DK Proj. Pts - 34.31
Barton will be a huge play today, and his game log tells an even better story than Afflalo's. Barton plays one of the weirdest rotations in the league, frequently coming in for the last 15 minutes of the game, or more. The Thunder are essentially a league average match-up for opposing shooting guards, but Barton will get a lot of minutes against the Thunder's defensively inferior 2nd unit. Definitely don't mind him if he's what makes the money work.
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Carmelo Anthony - FD 8500 DK 8200
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 40.92 DK Proj. Pts - 43.07
Doug and I got off the phone from setting our line-ups about an hour ago, as of this writing. I had just gotten done telling him, "I don't see how you can consider Carmelo safe, considering there are other options at a similar price point without recently getting dinged up." Well, Melo went ahead and put up 9/6/2 in the first quarter. I guess you could say he's looking pretty good out there. Now, I didn't mention this with Afflalo, but our projection system is going to like a lot of the Knicks today on account of their playing the Boston Celtics, who are playing the 4th fastest PACE in the league this season. I don't know that he's got a ton of points per dollar upside, but I like him quite a bit for 50/50s.
Jeff Green - FD 4300 DK 5400
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 22.87 DK Proj. Pts - 24.39
Omri Casspi - FD 5100 DK 5900
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 24.84 DK Proj. Pts - 26.03
If you're trying to get away from a less than inspiring position cheaply, both of these guys look pretty great. Green is still playing 34+ minutes per game, and has been the play of the day at his position so far through 1 quarter of action in a less than fantastic match-up with the super slow Hornets. The Lakers have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards, and I think he has a huge game here. Casspi is just underpriced on FanDuel (though I wouldn't play him on DraftKings). He's got multiple games at 6x points per dollar on these prices, and I don't know why FanDuel insists on pricing him so cheaply.
Consider: Kevin Durant. I know it's a little weird to not list him more prominently, and there's a good chance that he'll wind up in our projection system's optimal lineups today. We just like Westbrook way more, if you have to choose.
Kristaps Porzingis - FD 6300 DK 7400
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 31.49 DK Proj. Pts - 32.57
Not a pretty position today. Porzingis has been pretty erratic for fantasy purposes, largely because his minutes from game to game are a total unknown. The nice thing, for now, is that his price has settled at a point where he's a reasonable play even on relatively few minutes (these projections are based on 28 minutes for tonight). The Celtics have been awful against opposing power forwards this season, allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing fours. On a bad night for the position, this is what passes for safety (and upside) tonight.
Serge Ibaka - FD 6300 DK 6600
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 30.12 DK Proj. Pts - 31.88
Kenneth Faried - FD 6500 DK 6000
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 28.85 DK Proj. Pts - 29.34
No joke, this is a truly bad slate for power forwards. I don't really like either of these guys, albeit for different reasons. Ibaka could swallow up Faried, and the Thunder could blow the Nuggets right out of the water. Does that make Ibaka a great play? Not really. Again, the Nuggets could get blown out here, and Ibaka will disappear in some game scripts. If I had to choose, though, I'd go with Ibaka just because his role with the Thunder is so much more clearly defined. With a gun to my head, though, I'd guess Faried has more upside. I may just hedge the two across FanDuel and DraftKings - playing Ibaka on FD, and Faried on DK. Really, though, I'll be looking for a punt to pop up.
DeMarcus Cousins - FD 9900 DK 9900
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 49.17 DK Proj. Pts - 49.77
If I can afford two big money guys today, and I think I will be able to, I'm going to go with Westbrook and Boogie. Cousins hasn't had fewer than 40 fantasy points since December 6th, and he has an amazing match-up with the Trail Blazers today. The Blazers have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing centers in spite of playing the league's 8th slowest PACE. Mason Plumlee has some interesting offensive skills, but he's got no business guarding the league's best big man. I'll play Cousins in every type of game I can.
Mason Plumlee - FD 5300 DK 5300
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 26.32 DK Proj. Pts - 26.73
On the other hand - a fun big tournament play! Cousins is a strong defender, but the Kings have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing centers on account of their playing the league's 2nd fastest PACE. The extra possessions will give Plumlee more chances to gobble up boards and get the occasional bucket. He's got plenty of 5x points per dollar (and an 8x points per dollar) games on his game log, and while I don't think he's a favorite to get that here - it's certainly in play.
Marc Gasol is an interesting play against the awful interior defense of the Lakers, but it's sort of a no man's land for me, price wise.
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View Comments
I agree with everything you guys are saying today, and I especially pay attention when boogie starts falling under 10k!! But with all the value at point guard, I'm looking at Durant and what he's been doing lately a lot more than I am Westbrook.