Welcome to the Week 16 DFS NFL picks article for Draftpot, a brand new way to play fantasy sports. Draftpot is similar to other DFS sites except there is no salary cap restrictions. They offer two separate game types(Fan Mode/GM Mode). For NFL, Fan Mode allows you to build a roster of 1 QB,2 RB,3 WR,1 TE,2 FLEX,1 K,1 DEF without salary restrictions. You can roster anyone you want. In GM Mode, you also roster the same positions but have a Drafpot Points Per Game(DPPG) cap. Each player have a PPG value attached to their name which is a reflection of their previous 16 games played. This gives a more transparent look at player value.
Need other NFL Picks? Chris Raybon's Week 15 NFL Plays and Our Week 15 Value Plays piece.
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When making my picks I will be looking at a multitude of information (Vegas lines, totals and player props, targets, defensive matchups, injuries, offensive line rankings and of course DPPG) to break down all the players in the pool to provide you with the best analysis possible for the slate at hand.
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To win a tournament in Fan Mode you won't be able to just pick the top players at their positions each week. You will need to differentiate yourself with some low ownership picks. One way I love doing this is picking good players who are coming off a bad to horrible week. Recency bias plays a huge part in daily fantasy and is something we can use to our advantage to gain an edge on the field in large field GPP tournaments. I feel there is a tremendous opportunity for this here in week 14 with the number of poor performances by top players last week.
Cam Newton - Carolina Panthers (DPPG - 25.19)
Opponent- @ ATL
One of the favorites for the MVP was at it again last week against the Giants throwing for 340 yards and adding five touchdowns. It was the third time in five games Superman has thrown for five TD's and he is doing this with Tedd Ginn Jr. as his top wide receiver. The Panthers will look to continue their undefeated season this week on the road in Atlanta. While the Falcons rank in the top half of the league in fantasy points allowed to QB's for the season, they have ranked in the bottom third over the last three weeks. If the Falcons keep it close, Cam could explode and be handing out plenty of footballs to fans for Christmas.
Stack With - Tedd Ginn Jr, Greg Olsen
Jameis Winston - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DPPG - 17.06)
Opponent- vs. CHI
With most people turning to Cam Newton this week in Fan Mode formats, this leaves us many other options who could potentially have monster games at lower ownership levels. Winston is one of those guys. He is coming off a win vs. the Rams where he threw for a season high 363 yards on 50 attempts and added two touchdowns. He gets an even easier matchup this week against the Bears who have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks the last three weeks.
Stack With - Mike Evans, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
Also Consider: Blake Bortles - Jacksonville Jaguars (19.29 DPPG)
Deangelo Williams - Pittsburgh Steelers (DPPG - 10.15)
Opponent- @ BAL
The signing of Deangelo Williams in the offseason has proved to be a fantastic move. He was expected to be the fill in for Le'Veon Bell the first two games of the season while he served a suspension. Plans changed when Bell was lost for the season in week 8 due to injury. Williams has been the lead back ever since and performed very well in Bell's spot. He has 799 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns. Look for another strong game as the Steelers should easily handle the Ravens giving Williams 20+ rush attempt possibilities. He has also contributed in the passing game averaging over 5 targets a game over the last four games.
David Johnson - Arizona Cardinals (DPPG - 13.23)
Opponent- vs. GB
I recommended him last week and he went absolutely bonkers . I am staying on the train in Week 16 vs. Packers in a matchup with the highest total(50.5) on the slate. This will be Johnson's 4th game as the starter for the Cardinals and he has looked nothing less than a RB1. In the three games he has been the starter he has received over 19 carries each game and has had no less than 90 yards rushing in any contest. Look for Johnson to be relied on a ton again this week in a possible barn burner.
Also Consider: Doug Martin - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13.66 DPPG)
Allen Robinson - Jacksonville Jaguars (17.60 DPPG)
Opponent- @ NO
With the top WR pick I am going to target the Saints passing defense again this week. While my pick of Megatron was a dud, Golden Tate went off for two TD's and had a nice game. Robinson, unlike Megatron, will be much more than a contrarian GPP this week as he has been way more consistent. He has been targeted 9.5 times a week which has led to 1141 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. This game could easily be a shootout with tons of fantasy production to go around with Allen Robinson being one of the best options available.
Antonio Brown - Pittsburgh Steelers (21.94 DPPG)
Opponent- @ BAL
The only thing keeping Brown from being my top WR pick is the fact the Steelers could easily run away with this one and not have to throw as much. He is coming off a game in which he recorded 16 receptions for 189 and 2 Touchdowns. He became the first player in history to record two 15 + reception games in one season. Brown is a matchup proof wide receiver who can run every route and has one of the best QB/WR rapports in the NFL. Even if the Steelers are going to blow out the Ravens he is still going to get his targets.
Also Consider: Mike Evans - Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. CHI (DPPG 13.83)
Julius Thomas - Jacksonville Jaguars (DPPG - 10.14)
Opponent- @ NO
He missed the first 4 weeks of the season and since returning has been an extremely consistent target for Blake Bortles. His TD streak of four ended last week but he still picked up 6 receptions for 79 yards. Since week 6 he has averaged 7.8 targets per game making him a safe choice in any format this week.
Will Tye - New York Giants (DPPG - 7.35)
Opponent- @ MIN
Since week 10, Tye has taken over as the Giants #1 tight end and put up five straight double digit fantasy point games. In that time he has averaged 6.4 targets per game and has been an extremely reliable option for QB Eli Manning. Odell Beckham Jr's 1 game suspension was upheld meaning there will be 10-15 extra targets to go around in which Tye will receive a few.
Also Consider - Richard Rodgers - Green Bay Packers (DPPG - 9.52)
Kansas City Chiefs (DPPG - 11.13)
Opponent- vs. CLE
Besides two games early in the season where they put up negative fantasy totals, they have had double digit points in all but 2 other games. In their last seven games the Chiefs have recorded 26 sacks and 14 interceptions and now face a Browns team that is prone to turning the ball over.
Pittsburgh Steelers (DPPG - 10.13)
Opponent- @ BAL
Over their last five games they are averaging four sacks and 1.4 interceptions. They travel to Baltimore this week to face the Ravens in a division matchup. The Ravens offense has been hit hard with injuries losing their starting quarterback, running back and wide receiver. Look for another multi sack game with a good possibility of multiple turnovers.
Chandler Catanzaro - Arizona Cardinals (DPPG - 11.31)
Opponent- vs. GB
He has recorded multi fantasy point games in six of his last seven games and enters a matchup with the Packers with the highest total on the board. Expect another multi point game this week
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