Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James holds the ball away from Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas during the second quarter of a NBA basketball game in Boston Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2015. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)
Insert PC holiday greeting here! I hope you got whatever you were hoping for from Santa/for Hanukkah/for the Winter Solstice/for whatever other seasonal holiday you happen to celebrate. Or, if you celebrate nothing at all, I hope you had fun trolling your cheery friends and relatives on FaceBook and feeling generally superior to everyone else. I kid! I love you all for your sense of humor, even though I've only heard from about .1% of the people who read these articles. Okay, enough jibber jabber. It's an amazing day of hoops, and I'm as ready to write these picks as you are to read them!
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Stephen Curry - FD 10900 DK 10700
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 47.95 DK Proj. Pts - 52.04
Every single person in the industry is going to tell you to play Steph today. Should I be any different? Well, maybe. On DraftKings, Steph is the clear big money play of the day. One has to think he'll get his full run of minutes in the most anticipated game of the year, and it just seems impossible to believe that he won't be putting balls in the air from start to finish. He's cheap enough there (relative to the other plays) that it just makes sense - especially since he'll be the chalk play. But on FanDuel? Gulp - I may be going another direction. Definitely in big tournaments, but possibly in 50/50s as well. Curry averaged a 26/6/5 with 2 steals in the finals against the Cavs last year - but that was in 42.5 minutes per game. He should have the benefit of going up against Kyrie a bit here, but I just wouldn't be shocked if he does something less than pay his full price and then some. Okay, blaspheme over. Only fade Curry if you want to go against literally the rest of the field, and if you want to be swearing under your breath throughout your Christmas dinner.
Chris Paul - FD 9000 DK 8600
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 40.31 DK Proj. Pts - 42.18
The heavy blow-out possibility makes this likely a play you'll want to trot out in big tournaments only (especially since it will be hard to spend up twice at point guard on a relatively short slate). Still, Paul has averaged 5x points per dollar in his last 5 games, and faced some tough teams in the process (the Spurs, Patrick Beverley, and he embarrassed Russell Westbrook). He'll be up against Jordan Clarkson and the Lakers, who have allowed the very most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. A blow-out and a subsequent minutes loss is the only external risk here.
Tyreke Evans - FD 7300 DK 7800
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 36.04 DK Proj. Pts - 37.19
'Reke has torn it up in back to back games - averaging 48 FanDuel fantasy points a game on just 34 minutes a game. One of those was with the cupcake Nuggets, but the Trail Blazers have actually allowed a bottom 5 total of fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. I'm not sure what to make of Evans - back to back games with near triple doubles is out of character for him. But there's some chance he's just rounding into form after coming off of knee surgery. It's another less than stellar match-up with the snail's pace Heat, but he looks pretty interesting from where I'm sitting.
An interesting cheap play: Patrick Beverley. Few will be on him with some very interesting more expensive guys. You could also speculate on Matthew Dellavedova if you think Kyrie will continue to play reduced minutes.
J.J. Redick - FD 4600 DK 4900
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 21.17 DK Proj. Pts - 24.17
Point guard was so good that I almost forgot what a short slate this was. JJ is not a super appealing option given that there are a number of things that could go wrong for him here. The Clips could decide to dunk every time. It could be a blow-out. They could be up big, causing him to lose shots. The list goes on and on. But if there's an MO that DFSR has on short slates, it's this - don't pay up for safety at bad positions. In Redick you're getting a guy who's only paid less than 4x points per dollar twice since getting his starting minutes back, and in those 2 games, it was barely the case. Redick is averaging 6 three attempts per game in his last 6 games, so he's firmly on CP3's radar. I'll be playing him for safety.
Dwyane Wade - FD 7100 DK 6900
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 31.44 DK Proj. Pts - 31.93
I suspect D-Wade will be the highest % start at the position for this Christmas tilt with the Pelicans. They've allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season, and he certainly has a reputation for rising for nationally televised games. I imagine we're looking at 31 minutes and lots of shots, and the extra possessions from playing the Pelicans should make him very attractive to the playing masses. I'm not so sure you shouldn't just playing Gerald Green instead, though. More on that in a second.
Eric Gordon - FD 5000 DK 5000
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 22.08 DK Proj. Pts - 24.28
Here's a guy I feel a little less safe about, though he's been better than Redick recently. If you like Gordon for the 33 minutes he got in his last 2 contests, I think you can count on him to pay 4x-5x points per dollar, even against the super-slow Heat. The problem with this pick is that match-up, though. The Heat have played the 2nd slowest PACE in the league, and D-Wade is an occasionally willing defender. Still, if you find yourself in a position where you want to go double-cheap here, I don't mind it.
Also considered: Jimmy Butler - though I won't spend up on him given how expensive he is and the relatively safer options at similar prices elsewhere. I also like Gerald Green, and think he'll show up in some of our top system lineups. I'm just nervous about playing bench guys in 50/50s.
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LeBron James - FD 10400 DK 10000
Opponent - GSW FD Proj. Pts - 48.81 DK Proj. Pts - 50.75
Kawhi Leonard - FD 8900 DK 8400
Opponent - HOU FD Proj. Pts - 41.43 DK Proj. Pts - 43.24
Oh man, there are so many good small forward plays today that it's hard to pin down just one, so I'm going in tiers. In this tier you have the expensive guys. Our projection system has them basically neck and neck as far as points per dollar production is concerned, but I'll give the nod to LeBron for a few reasons. First of all, there's just no way he lets the "Forget LeBron - is Curry better than Jordan?" thing just fly by here. Next, I'm guessing that the Spurs are just going to soul crush the Rockets, and Leonard will be laughing on the bench in the 4th quarter. All told, though, I don't see how you go too wrong with either of these guys, as both have match-ups with teams who play top 6 PACE's in the league.
Andre Iguodala - FD 4600 DK 5200
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 22.23 DK Proj. Pts - 23.5
Trevor Ariza - FD 5500 DK 5600
Opponent - SAS FD Proj. Pts - 24.76 DK Proj. Pts - 27.29
The cheap guys. Iguodala is going to be a huge play today, but our system is fairly lukewarm on him considering his price on DraftKings. Truth be told, it actually likes Luol Deng better on a points per dollar basis in the same price range, but it doesn't have the power of the anecdote working for it. Iguodala was, of course, the finals MVP - and it stands to reason he'll play more minutes than usual here (especially considering Harrison Barnes is out). I'd be happy to play him anywhere. As for Ariza - his game log would be glorious on this price point if it weren't for his no-show against Charlotte. It's a really, really bad match-up with Kawhi, but our projection system sees a price/opportunity mismatch here. Not a big tournament play, though.
Anthony Davis - FD 10400 DK 10300
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 51.3 DK Proj. Pts - 52.09
So, so many great big money plays today. It's a crime that there likely won't be enough punts to get them all in. But then, that's sort of how we make our money in this thing, no? Davis has been shredding people recently, and in spite of Miami's slow pace, he should be in for a great game. He's a much better rebounder than Bosh, and while Whiteside might present some problems if he tries to go down low, Whiteside doesn't have the athleticism to chase him around in the mid-range. Fantastic play at a generally speculative position.
Kevin Love - FD 7800 DK 7900
Opponent - GSW FD Proj. Pts - 35.57 DK Proj. Pts - 38.11
Golden State plays the league's fastest PACE, right? Gulp. Well, this is going to be a very interesting game for Love. He obviously wasn't there for the finals last year, but he presents interesting match-up issues for the Warriors. If they go small, the Cavs can respond by playing Thompson/Love/LeBron, creating some very weird mismatches on defense for the Dubs. Iggy is needed on LeBron, and Thompson does just enough offensively that you can't hide some non-Draymond guy on him. That leaves Love a lot of opportunity for open looks and an undersized defender to contest his shots. Everyone's ready for LeBron/Steph, and we might just see a monster Love game.
Chris Bosh - FD 7200 DK 7000
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 35.59 DK Proj. Pts - 37.36
Kinda boring, right? Well, on short slates like these, boring can be a sanity saver. Bosh should be in line for about 34 minutes against the Pelicans today, and if you think that's a good number, our projection system likes him as the best (safe) points per dollar guy at the position. The Pelicans play super fast under Alvin Gentry, and they've allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards in spite of the big guy who defends the position on their team. It's not the prettiest game log recently, but I like him for a turn-around game here.
EDIT: Upon further review, I downgraded Bosh's overall number since I don't think he'll hit 34 minutes for sure this game. Still like him, don't love him.
Speculative cheap guys: Taj Gibson and Bobby Portis' situations both totally vex me. No clue what's going on there, but wouldn't be surprised if either wound up in a winning tournament lineup today. I also wouldn't be surprised whatsoever to see Tristan Thompson play huge minutes against the Warriors doom-squad.
Hassan Whiteside - FD 7700 DK 7100
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 37.9 DK Proj. Pts - 38.54
Turns out that Christmas is one of those days of the year where Whiteside's minutes and price haven't quite lined up! Whiteside emerged from his weird Spoelstra limbo to play 35 and 38 minutes in the last two games. How many he'll play here is anybody's guess, but I suspect that only foul trouble will keep him out of the game on the league's biggest pre-new-year stage. And if he plays 33+ minutes? He's not a sub $8,000 player against one of the league's fastest teams. I love him to pile up blocks against the Pelicans' Tyreke/Gordon led slash and kick, and would play Whiteside in any format.
DeAndre Jordan - FD 7500 DK 6700
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 35.36 DK Proj. Pts - 36.06
DeAndre was cruising along putting up almost exactly 4x points per dollar on this FanDuel price, which would normally make him a great play against the league's most generous defense to opposing centers. But do you trust him to get his minutes? I suppose you could argue that his minutes are more secure than Whiteside's but the blow-out risk has me wondering. I might wind up just hedging them for my 50/50s (since they're the same price) on FanDuel, and letting it all come out in the wash.
Go big, or go home? The million dollar ($100,000?) question today might be: how many minutes will Andrew Bogut play? If the Warriors decide to play him 27 minutes (like they did last game) Bogut could put up 30+ fantasy points and a big tournament win for his owners. If they decide to go small and try to take Kevin Love off the floor, Bogut could play 18 minutes. I'll definitely run a few permutations with him in the big one.
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View Comments
James,
Merry Christmas and let's have a Happy and prosperous New Year. Keep the jibber jabber coming.
Jim
12:00 can't come quick enough. I'm sooo ready for tip-off.