Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 16

Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's Week 16! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get started with our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftpot.

The Vegas lines are telling us there may not be many shootout style games in Week 16, as there is only one game with an over/under above 50 (Jaguars-Saints, which may come down if Drew Brees does not play). There are also three games with double-digit spreads (Seahawks-Rams, Chiefs-Browns, Steelers-Ravens) and another with a 9-point spread (Lions-49ers). As a result, there are a bunch of teams with high individual team totals. This week may not be a great week to combine players from the same game in GPP lineups in hopes of a shootout a la Steelers-Broncos or Lions-Saints last week, but instead focus on loading up on players on the top projected teams of the week.

QUARTERBACKS

Cam Newton - FD 9300 DK 7500
Opponent- ATL
Newton is tearing up the NFL in his fifth season, leading the league in TD% (7.5%). He has accounted for 83% of the Panthers’ offensive TDs, which bodes well in a game where Carolina’s Vegas implied total is above 27 points. The Falcons rank 23rd in pass defense DVOA and 21st in rush DVOA; they posed no match for Cam two weeks ago, when Newton torched the Dirty Birds for three scores on only 21 attempts.

Russell Wilson - FD 8800 DK 7200
Opponent- STL
Wilson has been locked in of late. In his last five games, he is averaging 284 passing yards and 3.8 passing TDs to go along with 29.4 rushing yards and 0.2 rushing TDs. He has a 19:0 TD-to-INT ratio over that span. At first glance, the Rams may seem like a tough matchup, but they have permitted 301 passing yards and 2.3 passing TDs per game over their last four games. Seattle’s Vegas implied total is robust 27 points.

Blake Bortles - FD 8200 DK 6500
Opponent- NO
Bortles has been hovering around top-5 fantasy QB territory (depending on what scoring format is used) all season. Over his last six games, he is averaging 271 passing yards and 2.33 passing TDs along with a healthy 21.2 rushing yards and 0.33 rushing TDs. He has accounted for 92% of Jacksonville’s offensive TDs. Meanwhile, the Saints are dead last in fantasy points allowed to QBs and dead last in offensive TDs allowed. Jaguars-Saints has an over/under of 52, the highest of Week 16.

Drew Brees - FD 8200 DK 6800
Opponent- JAC
I mentioned the high over/under in the Jaguars-Saints game, but more importantly for Brees, the game is being played in New Orleans. At home, Brees is averaging 349.6 passing yards and 2.9 passing TDs, which thwart his road averages of 282.3 passing yards and 1.3 passing TDs. The Saints’ Vegas implied total is 27.8 and Brees has accounted for 71% of their offensive TDs this season. Jacksonville ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA.

Note: Brees is dealing with a plantar fascia injury. Word is he plans to play, but if he does not, Matt Flynn becomes a viable punt option.

RUNNING BACKS

David Johnson - FD 7300 DK 5800
Opponent- GB
After being handed the starting job due to injury, Johnson has not looked back. In his three starts, he has averaged 27 touches, 157 total yards, and 1.3 total TDs per game. He has not received less than 24 touches in any start. He will face off against a Packers defense that has allowed 5.08 yards per carry over their last three games and ranks a middling 18th in rush defense DVOA. The Cardinals are 4.5-point home favorites.

DeAngelo Williams - FD 7400 DK 6500
Opponent- BAL
In his last six games (since replacing the injured Le’Veon Bell), Williams is averaging 22.8 touches, 120.5 total yards, and 1.0 total TDs. The Steelers are 10-point favorites, which means this game should be a favorable situation for Pittsburgh’s starting RB. The Ravens are known for playing the run well, but have permitted 4.3 yards per carry to RBs over their last three games, including a 20-113 line to Lamar Miller, a 6-44 start for Thomas Rawls, and a 16-76-1 line to Charcandrick West.

Adrian Peterson - FD 8200 DK 7300
Opponent- NYG
After briefly exiting last week’s game with an ankle injury, Peterson looks to be all systems go against the Giants. His price is at a season-low on FanDuel, making the league leader in rushing attempts and rushing yards a great bargain, especially on that site. The Vikings are currently 6-point home favorites against a Giants team that ranks 20th in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Doug Martin - FD 8100 DK 6600
Opponent- CHI
Martin is averaging over 20 touches per game this season, and figures to see that many as a 3-point home favorite against the Bears. The Bears have struggled against the run; they rank 32nd in run defense DVOA and 27th in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

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WIDE RECEIVERS

Antonio Brown - FD 9300 DK 9300
Opponent- BAL
If only Brown had Ben Roethlisberger for all 16 games. With Big Ben, Brown is averaging 9.9 receptions for 135 yards per game. The good news is Big Ben will be all systems go for Week 16. The Steelers have a team total of almost 29 points, which means Brown should have no trouble putting up his usual numbers against a Ravens defense that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA.

Doug Baldwin - FD 7700 DK 6700
Opponent- STL
Remember when Baldwin was upset that he was thought of as mediocre, and some analysts thought even “mediocre” was pushing it? Well, here we are in Week 16 of 2015, where Baldwin has a chance to break the NFL record for consecutive games with multiple TDs. He is currently tied with Cris Carter and Calvin Johnson at 4. Baldwin sports averages of 93 receiving yards and 1.8 TDs per game over his last six games. The Rams, meanwhile, have allowed over 300 passing yards per game over the past month.

Kamar Aiken - FD 6600 DK 5400
Opponent- PIT
Despite turmoil all around him, including at the QB position, Aiken has been a highly consistent receiver over his last seven games. He has caught five or more passes in every game during that span, averaging 6.1 receptions, 75.8 yards, and 0.42 TDs. His matchup against the Steelers is promising, as they rank dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.

Allen Robinson - FD 8400 DK 7500
Opponent- NO
One of the most consistent fantasy WRs this season, Robinson has scored a TD in four straight games and eight of his last 10 games. He has 100 yards and/or a TD in 10 straight games. The Saints rank 24th in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs and dead last in pass defense DVOA.

TIGHT END

Greg Olsen - FD 6800 DK 7000
Opponent- ATL
Olsen is second among TEs in targets per game (8.3) and yards per game (74.1). More importantly, he has Cam Newton throwing to him at an MVP-caliber level. The Falcons have been dusted by TEs this season; they rank 25th in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position.

Julius Thomas - FD 6500 DK 5100
Opponent- NO
Thomas has started to become an integral part of the Jaguars’ offense over the last five games, averaging 7.8 targets, 5.4 catches, and 0.8 TDs. He’ll take on a Saints defense that has trouble stopping everybody, but especially tight ends. The Saints rank dead last in the NFL in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position.

Antonio Gates - FD 6200 DK 5000
Opponent- OAK
There are a lot of TEs in play this week, but Gates is arguably the best value of them all due to his price tag. Quietly, Gates leads all TEs in targets per game (8.7). With the Chargers banged up at the skill positions, Gates has been consistent of late, catching six passes in each of his last three games.

DEFENSE

Seattle Seahawks
It seems like the Seahawks make it into this column on a weekly basis, and for good reason. They have been having some incredibly favorable point spreads as of late, and their Week 16 tilt against the Rams is no different. Seattle is a 13.5-point favorite, with the Rams’ team total sitting below 14 points.

Kansas City Chiefs
One of the hottest defenses in the NFL, the Chiefs have now scored double-digit fantasy points in seven of their last eight games. They are 12.5-point home favorites against the Browns, whose team total is sitting around 15 points. The Browns rank 31st in the NFL in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs.

Detroit Lions
The Lions will take the field at home as 9-point favorites over the 49ers, who have a team total of only 17. The 49ers rank 25th in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to defenses, which is no surprise when your skill position starters consist of Blaine Gabbert, Shaun Draughn, a 35-year old Anquan Boldin, one-trick point Torrey Smith, and Vance McDonald.

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