Wizards v/s Thunder 03/14/11
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Russell Westbrook - FD 10200 DK 10400
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 49.55 DK Proj. Pts - 51.34
Big game, big total, big time spot for Russell. There are a couple of affairs tonight with big time projected totals and this is one of them. Westbrook's price has been dropping steadily since Durant's return, though he's proven to be fantasy adequate in this range. His issue now is he's just not as consistent a threat to hit the big time now that KD takes some of that usage down. But Westbrook should be able to put in work tonight. The Clippers have allowed above average scoring and rebounding to opposing point guards this season. I just love the price, especially on FanDuel where you can fit him easily along with a couple of other bigger guys. There are other ways to save down the positional line and the tempo of this game really should favor Russell.
Isaiah Thomas - FD 8200 DK 7700
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 37.84 DK Proj. Pts - 40.64
In the right kind of contest, Thomas has as much upside as anyone on the slate. In a run-and-gun game, dude has proven he's willing to chuck from the rafters. Brad Stevens yanks minutes around like he's sadistic, but not for Thomas who's getting most of the point guard run as a score-first one. That he'll kick in the assists as well makes him a great play against a Minnny squad allowing above average production in both categories. Pairing Thomas and Westbrook in cash games gives you a nice high floor out of the position.
Strongly consider Ricky Rubio going against Boston. There is some blowout risk for both these last two guys. Keep that in mind.
You can also consider Jarrett Jack but he's proven to be all over the place.
Avery Bradley - FD 5300 DK 5500
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 25.56 DK Proj. Pts - 27.78
Been waiting for his price to drop some before we went ahead and recommended Bradley again. Feels like it's been forever. He's struggled through two tougher games against the Hawks and the Pistons. He saw his minutes remain the same while the shot volume decreased. I'm seeing this more of an outlier against two slower, defensively adept teams. Tonight he gets very much the opposite at least in terms of defense. The Timberwolves really struggle on D though they've been fine enough against opposing shooting guards. I'm still seeing this as a higher volume opportunity for Bradley who really needs to score to hit value.
Kent Bazemore - FD 5500 DK 5700
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 26.47 DK Proj. Pts - 27.95
He's seen a price climb since entering the starting lineup and playing serious minutes. But the salary isn't all the way there considering his new(ish) opportunity. What I like about Baze from a DFS standpoint is his floor. Because he doesn't rely just on scoring, he's a safer cash game play. He's a SF in real life and on DraftKings, but on FanDuel you are getting more of the Swiss Army knife approach to SG as compared to many of the other options who are score first (and do little else).
You can strongly consider James Harden here though I'd warn against playing him too confidently against a team like Charlotte who plays mid-tier in terms of pace.
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Rudy Gay - FD 7200 DK 7000
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 34.59 DK Proj. Pts - 36.25
Omri Casspi - FD 5000 DK 6000
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 26.69 DK Proj. Pts - 28.15
Whoa boy has Washington ever been getting DEE-Stroyed by opposing small forwards this season. Now of course Gay and Casspi don't both man the three when they start together. They interchange between the three and four depending on rotations. But the Wiz aren't a whole lot better against power forwards, so you are getting money in good either way with these guys. The price on Casspi, for FanDuel at least, is still a total bargain. DK's corrected him and Gay is a better pts/$ play over there. But both are looking solid against a Wizards team playing top five in terms of pace and bottom five in overall defensive efficiency. That's a great place to meet on the DFS graph when looking for value. Really nice places to start for your cash games.
Kelly Oubre - FD 3600 DK 3300
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 18.29 DK Proj. Pts - 20.36
Jared Dudley - FD 4000 DK 4400
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 18.35 DK Proj. Pts - 20.21
It's quite difficult to gauge the Wiz minutes right now. Because they are incredibly short-handed and by default, not very good, Whitman's been all over the place with rotations, starters, etc. Oubre got the start at the three last game but got in some foul trouble early. Dudley started at the four and played almost the whole game. The truth for both probably lies somewhere in between. I'm not advocating a totally trusting relationship with either, but that's built into the price. If I knew Oubre was starting again I'd feel on the safer side with him in cash games. Dudley's a different story because he really does need minutes in the high 30's.
Very strongly consider Carmelo Anthony. He's still priced a bit below his actual value. He's been a fairly complete fantasy player this year, not as reliant on just the scoring.
Thaddeus Young - FD 7000 DK 7000
Opponent - CHI FD Proj. Pts - 33.13 DK Proj. Pts - 34.42
He's seen a distinct price drop in the short term thanks to A: the price getting a little too tough to roster and B: some poor shooting performances. Young has been about 35% from the field over the last week. Every player will go through rough patches. We want to buy when the price drops and the public is off a guy because the game logs look rough. That's the case with Thad. But the minutes are still there as are the rebounds. All signs point to this just being some run bad. Of course the Bulls are a good defensive team, but power forward is weaker and you aren't breaking the bank for him.
Blake Griffin - FD 9200 DK 8900
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 42.88 DK Proj. Pts - 43.53
Last game proved Blake still isn't over letting emotions get the best of him. He'll still jaw at the refs and look a bit out of control. He's still a superstar though and should see somewhere near 40 minutes in this one. Only a mini-blowout against the Rockets kept him from 40 last game and this one should have the same flow. If you think he's out there for the entirety then I'm tempted to call him close to a must play at these prices. But there isn't a huge margin of error for the guy. He'll match up with Ibaka, which isn't great. I'm mostly looking for the big run at just a shade under the top tier in terms of price.
Jon Leuer - FD 4700 DK 5800
Opponent - UTA FD Proj. Pts - 25.03 DK Proj. Pts - 25.66
Too expensive for me on DraftKings, but this price is still in play on FanDuel even against a team like Utah. Leuer's minutes seem secure short of a blowout and he's been productive. I'm not typically recommending guys against slow, sound teams like the Jazz, but on FanDuel Leuer's price is still low enough.
Consider Paul Millsap. Also, if I could trust the Hornets' situation I wouldn't mind Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller
Gorgui Dieng - FD 4900 DK 5300
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 26.2 DK Proj. Pts - 26.61
He's been making a compelling case to Sam Mitchell for more and more playing time. Dieng is one of those funny dudes you know about real well if you've been playing DFS for some time. There was a stretch not too long ago where this guy was about as great as it got on a nightly basis. Just crushing. But then teams go different directions, guys get drafted and all of a sudden the minutes disappear. Well, they are back for the guy and he's making the most of them. The last three games have seen him averaging a 12/10 with some blocks and steals thrown in. It's always dicey until a guy has locked in a starting job because minutes can disappear. But for now Dieng appears set in the Timberwolves rotation.
Mason Plumlee - FD 5200 DK 5000
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 26.02 DK Proj. Pts - 26.42
Two games in a row against teams above average at opposing centers has Plumlee looking rough. But again, this is where we want to take advantage. He seems locked into thirty minutes for the Blazes and will get his shot in the right matchup. Atlanta is below average against opposing centers and Plumlee strikes me as an off board play who could easily pay. Will rebound enough to keep the floor higher and if you are seeing 9-11 shots out of the guy then you are buying low.
DeMarcus Cousins - FD 9900 DK 10000
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 46.42 DK Proj. Pts - 46.99
Gets in too much foul trouble too often to be considered safe at this point. The minutes getting buzzed off because of knucklehead plays is a real thing for the guy. But there's no denying his talent and this game has too many potential points to ignore the guy. He struggled early last night before climbing back to respectability. Washington is above average against centers, but I still think Boogie's prices are hair too low.
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