Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 12/20/15

It's big double-slate Sunday! I'm visiting my family in New Jersey at the moment, and will be trying to find reasons to sneak away and manage both basketball and football lineups tomorrow. Not for the faint of heart, but then, that's why they pay me the big bucks to do this. Or why I pay myself the big bucks. Or the medium bucks. Where was I? Ah yes, holiday cheer. I'm filled to the brim with holiday cheer over this big ol' double slate today, so let's just dive right in.

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POINT GUARD

Jarrett Jack - FD 6900 DK 6500
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 32.54 DK Proj. Pts - 33.56
Easily the best value on the early slate, and it's arguably not even close. Jack has been seeing increase minutes and usage with Larkin injured, and he's paid 6x and 7x points per dollar in those two games. He also happens to have the second best possible match-up for a fantasy point guard - the Wolves have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. For me, Jack is a must play in all formats (though you can obviously get away from him in big tournaments if you anticipate that others will feel similarly).

Goran Dragic - FD 5700 DK 5400
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 26.12 DK Proj. Pts - 27.51
The Dragon! Our projection system has been all over Dragic recently for a couple of reasons. First of all, he's locked into a more consistent 34-35 minute rotation. He's also shooting more. He's averaged 14 shots per game in his last 4 as compared to the 10 shots per game he was averaging before that. Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers have never been known for their point guard defense, but they've actually improved quite a bit this season. This is more of price/opportunity mismatch, but I still like Dragic anywhere you like him.

Consider: Michael Carter-Williams. If you trust the minutes (and I might), he is a fantastic play against the Suns at these prices.

Late slate love:
Kyle Lowry - FD 8900 DK 8300
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 38.92 DK Proj. Pts - 41.21
Lowry has averaged 40 minutes in his last 2 games, and has seen an increase in usage since Demarre Carroll went down. The real opportunity here comes from a rare circumstance - he's taking more shots, but his price has gone down. In his last two games he's 14/47 from the field. If he can keep shooting at this rate (or even slightly less) and come back up to his established career levels, he'll be a great play on these prices on many nights. The Kings have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, and I think we could see big things here.

Consider: Jrue Holiday, even off the bench.

SHOOTING GUARD

Eric Bledsoe - FD 8900 DK 8400
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 38.73 DK Proj. Pts - 40.16
I'm not usually one to spend up on the shooting guard position outside of the James Harden tier, but Bledsoe often winds up being the exception. He's paid 5x points per dollar on these prices in 4 of his last 5, and the one dud he had was in a blow-out against the Warriors. The Bucks have been tough on opposing shooting guards this season, but I think Bledsoe is a bad match-up for either of the guys that could be potentially cover him here (I think he'll live in the lane), and I don't mind spending up for him at all.

Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 6800 DK 6700
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 30.58 DK Proj. Pts - 31.68
The other side of the Suns/Bucks match-up appeals to me quite a bit as well. The question for me with Giannis (and really any Buck) is opportunity, and it looks like he's locked in to 35+ minutes at some wing position for the Bucks. The Suns have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards on the league's 2nd fastest PACE, and the up and down style should really cater to Giannis' transition game. Seems super safe with lots of upside to go with it.

Also considered: JR Smith, though I'm concerned about a blow-out in Philly.

Late slate:
Kent Bazemore - FD 5500 DK 5700
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 26.68 DK Proj. Pts - 28.21
We're back in price/opportunity mismatch territory. Bazemore's price is in no-man's land at the moment. He'll be too expensive if he goes back to the bench, and he's too cheap for what he can do as a starter. This all leads to a very solid 50/50 and double-up play against the Magic today.

Also considered: Eric Gordon.

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SMALL FORWARD

Khris Middleton - FD 5900 DK 5500
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 27.41 DK Proj. Pts - 29.23
Middleton's price has climbed pretty dramatically recently, but it's warranted. He's got 40+ minute upside as a part of these new-look Bucks (the new look being that you can actually project their minutes), and this increased playing time makes him a plenty safe play on these prices. A fast paced game is great for Middleton, who thrives in fast paced games where he has more opportunity to pick pockets and jack up shots. Another great 50/50 play against Phoenix today.

LeBron James - FD 10500 DK 10100
Opponent - PHI FD Proj. Pts - 47.94 DK Proj. Pts - 49.98
The only real question here is the blow-out concern. In their last match-up, LeBron put up a gorgeous 22/9/11/4/2 and was a part of winning big tournament line-ups. The Sixers are an embarrassment to the league, particularly on D, and have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. You may be spooked by the blow-out, but I'll probably go for it on a short slate.

Luol Deng - FD 4600 DK 4800
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 24.22 DK Proj. Pts - 25.5
Feels a little more punt-ish, but I truly love this play. Two horrendous shooting nights (2/6 and 2/9) have Deng's price just where we want it - under $5,000 across the industry. "But James," you likely think to yourself, "Deng has truly sucked these last two games." I hear you, hypothetical reader. I do. But this is where we make our money in daily fantasy basketball - market inefficiencies. Deng is still playing 35 minutes a game, and the games before his last two seem to indicate that he's not suffering any setbacks. He put up 5x and 7x points per dollar before this little shooting slump, and I'd guess he's about 20% below where his price'll be in 2 weeks. I love him as a stretch 4 against the Trail Blazers' less than athletic 4s.

Late slate consideration: Gallo - but this isn't a pretty position/slate combo. Omri Casspi is still a must-play on FanDuel, but he's priced out of consideration for me on DraftKings.

POWER FORWARD

Thaddeus Young - FD 7000 DK 7000
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 32.79 DK Proj. Pts - 34.03
Young is coming off a 14/14 game against the Pacers, who had allowed the second fewest fantasy points to opposing power forwards before Young got to them. He'll have an interesting match-up against Gorgui Dieng, who should have an awfully tough time chasing him around the perimeter. On a slate where it looks tough to find a lot of points per dollar safety, I think Young is a terrific 50/50 play.

Jon Leuer - FD 4700 DK 5800
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 25.97 DK Proj. Pts - 26.65
Moreso on FanDuel, but he's a play on DraftKings as well. On FanDuel we just have a price/opportunity mismatch. He's still playing high 20s minutes per game in non-blowouts, and his ability to shoot the 3 and gobble up boards makes him a very enticing play against the slightly undersized Jabari Parker.

Also considered: Kevin Love, but I'm not sure I trust the minutes or opportunity even if it's a great match-up with Philadelphia. The game script past him by in their last meeting.

Late Slate:
Anthony Davis - FD 10400 DK 10300
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 51.69 DK Proj. Pts - 52.5
I get it if it feels bold to project Davis for more fantasy points than he's scored since December 4th, but be prepared to be bombarded with a bunch of excuses. Davis is a 40 minutes a game superstar's super star who hasn't done a fantastic job even paying these affordable prices. But if you go game by game, you can find little reasons why it hasn't all come together as much recently. Bad game script last game kept him to just 12 shots. He shot 33% on 24 shots against Chicago. I could go on. The truth is, this is a fantastic match-up with the Nuggets, who have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. I love Davis everywhere, in every format.

Also considered: Paul Millsap.

CENTER

Mason Plumlee - FD 5200 DK 5000
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 26.73 DK Proj. Pts - 27.14
Plumlee is still really cheap for a competent fantasy center who's getting 28-30 minutes a game. Game script kept his shots way down in the Trail Blazers' last game, but with three straight games in double-digit rebounds, Plumlee is simply worth more than a $5,000-$5,200 salary. Fine playing him anywhere, especially because Hassan Whiteside's limited offensive game is unlikely to get him into foul trouble.

Big upside play: Gorgui Dieng, though I'm not sure I totally trust the minutes to play him over Plumlee at the same price.

Late slate: Demarcus Cousins is a phenomenal value on FanDuel at a sub $10,000 price, and it will be hard to not try and make lineups to play both him and Davis there.

Also considered: King Joffrey, though it feels puntish. Still, if his minutes continue on an upward trajectory, he could be a $6,000 player. Great play, here.

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