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Value and Sleeper Picks for Daily Fantasy NFL Football for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 15
It's another value picks and sleepers article for the 2015 NFL season! With a couple of weeks under our belts, some players are already undervalued on DraftKings and FanDuel. Roles change more rapidly in NFL than they do anywhere else, leaving us a huge opportunity to get to cashing in. Here are some guys that our projection system likes that you might not see elsewhere.
We've also got Chris Raybon's Week 15 NFL picks sitting there waiting for you to digest.
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Last week's value play article included some real, tournament-winning home runs like Marcus Mariota, Allen Robinson and Scott Chandler. It also included some duds as well. Such is life when trying to capture real contrarian upside. We are getting down to the wire in the NFL and it's tough to come out of nowhere at this point. We want to target some players who the public may be a little down on, but who stand to turn in solid performances.
QUARTERBACKS
Matt Ryan - FD 7200 DK 5700
Opponent- JAC
This is an interesting week for Matty Ice and the rest of the Falcons. They come in on a six game losing streak and having lost 7 of their last 8 games. The poop icing was a 38-0 beat down last week by the Panthers. So, yeah, things aren't looking good. But in DFS we are looking for times to buy when public opinion has soured and we can take advantage of pricing. I think that's the case with Ryan. The completion percentage has been there even when things are going wrong and the Panthers are a top notch defense. The Jags aren't. They rank 27th in DVOA against the pass this season and this game has the biggest o/u of the week. He still has two elite weapons in Julio Jones and Devonta Ryan. He's seen a precipitous price drop in the short term and this is a great time to buy.
Philip Rivers - FD 7400 DK 5500
Opponent- MIA
As Eli Manning proved last week, the Dolphins can be passed on. They rank 31st in the league in DVOA against the pass with only the lowly Saints behind them. The issue with Rivers is he's lost many of the weapons that would raise his floor. No Keenan Allen has hurt but he's also spent the last two weeks facing 2 of the top defenses in the league in Denver and KC. Miami isn't those teams by a long shot. This is another tournament play coming at a discount.
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RUNNING BACKS
Devonta Freeman - FD 8400 DK 7500
Opponent- JAC
Though not particularly a typical value play because of the price, I did want to highlight Freeman because he wasn't in the main picks article. Freeman is much like Ryan for me this week. The Falcons are in a game projected for a ton of points in a must-win game for Atlanta and Freeman is still the lead back. He's been stymied the last few weeks because the Falcons have been down early and had to play from behind. They should hang in this one and I can see Freeman bouncing back. I don't mind stacking Ryan and Freeman in cash games this week as a safety play.
Matt Jones - FD 5200 DK 4000
Opponent- BUF
A cheap alternative to David Johnson this week though I do like the latter a bit more for the money. That being said, Jones is out-carrying Alfred Morris in the short term. And while not very good, he's very cheap. Buffalo is solid against the run, but again this is all about price. An especially interesting play on DraftKings where he's just about at the minimum.
Brandon Bolden - FD 5500 DK 3200
Opponent- TEN
One can never trust the Patriots and running backs. This is a rule and I want to say it again so you are clear. One can never trust the Patriots and running backs. Bolden came in for the injured LeGarrette Blount and carried 16 times last game. The Pats have signed Monte Ball and have some other options like James White. This is merely a tournament play looking to hit a home run with the Pats' carries.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Malcom Floyd - FD 5600 DK 3500
Opponent- MIA
Stevie Johnson - FD 5500 DK 4500
Opponent- MIA
Again, much like I said for Rivers, the Chargers' guys are in a fantastic spot this week. Floyd has seen 13 targets over the last two weeks which is behind only Gates (more on him shortly) and could see a bump this week if Stevie Johnson were to sit again. If Johnson were to play this week, then he makes a fantastic value play considering the circumstances. His price is in the basement though in the three games before going down he was averaging 7/71 and dominating targets. Rivers is an accurate passer (fifth in the league in completion percentage) and the Chargers throw the most in the league. I love grabbing these guys at a discount. Also Dontrelle Inman becomes interesting if Stevie can't play.
Alshon Jeffery - FD 7900 DK 7300
Opponent- MIN
Another guy not listed in the main picks article who I wanted to bring up quickly. Alshon is a tier one WR1 at prices underneath the big boys. Minnesota is a middle-of-the-pack team against the pass and Jeffery is the top target for the Bears. The price is up a little on FanDuel after a good week in which he was one of the higher-owned players. But I'm ready to go right back to the well.
TIGHT ENDS
Antonio Gates - FD 5800 DK 4600
Opponent- MIA
It isn't a mistake that we have this many Chargers in the value plays article. They've run into two buzzsaw defenses over the last couple of weeks to predictably poor results. But even in the tough matchups, Gates has been productive averaging 6/62 though failing to get into the end zone. Gates is tenth in the league in red zone targets despite playing 4 or more less games than every name above him. Meaning, per game he is the second highest red zone guy in the league behind only Gronk. Cash and tournament play all the way here.
Jacob Tamme - FD 5100 DK 3300
Opponent- JAC
Somewhat off board, though you can see two of the teams I'm interested in stacking this week. Tamme is still seeing looks in the Falcons' offense and has seen a price drop along with the rest of his teammates.
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image sources
- Buccaneers Falcons Football: (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
