Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 15

Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's Week 15! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get started with our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftpot.

For what seems like one of the first times all season, high-priced QBs are some of the best plays on the board. On the flip side, many of the studs are risky fantasy investments this week. Odell Beckham Jr. will face off against 2015’s best cornerback, Josh Norman. Antonio Brown will face the Broncos, who have allowed the least fantasy points to WRs. A.J. Green tends to flourish on the road and he and A.J. McCarron did connect on a long TD, but can they replicate that success? This week, it probably makes sense to spend a bit more on QB while taking advantage of the value in the middle tiers at WR. Let’s get into the Week 15 plays.

QUARTERBACKS

Cam Newton - FD 9400 DK 7800
Opponent- NYG
Ranked second in points per game at the position, Newton will take on a Giants defense ranked 25th in pass defense DVOA and dead last in passing yards per game allowed (308.4). The Panthers’ team total is 26.5 and Newton has accounted for 81% of their offensive TDs this season.

Russell Wilson - FD 8800 DK 7000
Opponent- CLE
Wilson has been on fire over the past four weeks, averaging 318 total yards and 4.3 total TDs. During those four games, he has posted a 16:0 TD-to-INT ratio and hasn’t thrown for less than 3 TDs in a game. The Seahawks have a team total north of 28 points this weekend, and Wilson has accounted for 85% of their offensive TDs over the last four games. The Browns, meanwhile, rank 26th in pass defense DVOA and 29th in passing TD% allowed (6.1%).

Carson Palmer - FD 8700 DK 7000
Opponent- PHI
A top-five fantasy QB this season, Palmer has eclipsed 300 yards passing in five of his last six games, averaging 338 yards (and 2.5 TDs) over that span. He’ll take on an Eagles defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to QBs. The Cardinals have a team total of 27 in a game with the week’s second highest over/under (50.5).

Matthew Stafford - FD 7800 DK 6100
Opponent- NO
Stafford has been a top-seven fantasy QB over the last five weeks, sporting an 11:2 TD-to-INT ratio over that span. He will face a Saints defense ranked dead last in passing TD% allowed (8.0%) and QB rating allowed (114.2). Not surprisingly, the Saints give up the most fantasy points per game in the NFL to QBs. Lions-Saints has the highest over/under of the week (51).

RUNNING BACKS

Adrian Peterson - FD 8600 DK 7100
Opponent- CHI
Peterson has accounted for 47.6% of the Vikings’ offensive touches, tops in the
league. He leads the NFL in rushing attempts (268), yards (1251), and TDs (9). He’ll face a Bears defense ranked 30th in yards per carry allowed (4.7) and 26th in rushing yards per game allowed (125.7). The Vikings are 5.5-point home favorites.

David Johnson - FD 6500 DK 5700
Opponent- PHI
With Andre Ellington (toe) not returning to practice early in the week and head coach Bruce Arians tending to roll with one feature back at a time, the stage is set for Johnson to maintain his heavy workload (24 touches in each of his last two games). Johnson has gone over 120 total yards in back-to-back games and now gets to face an Eagles defense permitting 202.4 total yards per game to RBs over their last five.

Lamar Miller - FD 6700 DK 6300
Opponent- SD
After Miller turned in another great performance (12-89-2) on yet another inexplicably light workload in a loss to the Giants, expect the coaching staff to recommit to Miller against a Chargers defense ranked 31st in yards per carry allowed (4.8). With the Chargers offense struggling to score, this game is unlikely to turn into a shootout, which works to Miller’s benefit. He is one of only six RBs to average over five yards per carry this season (5.1).

Denard Robinson - FD 6300 DK 4600
Opponent- ATL
Robinson will fill in for an injured TJ Yeldon against a Falcons defense ranked 24th in run defense DVOA. In relief of Yeldon last week, Robinson posted a 14-75-1 line, and also strung together a number of productive rushing lines as a starter last year (22-127-1, 18-108-0, 17-94-1, 15-60-2 in Weeks 7-10 last season). The Jaguars are 3-point home favorites.

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WIDE RECEIVERS

Calvin Johnson - FD 8000 DK 6900
Opponent- NO
Coming off a slow game against a stingy defense, Johnson’s ownership may be lower than it should be against the league’s worst pass defense. Johnson’s price has come down $700 on DraftKings and $500 on FanDuel over the past two weeks. Averaging 9.5 targets per game, Megatron should be able to do damage against a Saints defense allowing the third most passing yards per game in the NFL (278.8). They have also permitted the second most TDs to WRs (21).

Doug Baldwin - FD 7400 DK 5800
Opponent- CLE
Over his last five games, Baldwin is averaging 8 targets, 6 catches, 103 yards, and 1.8 TDs. He has eight TDs over his past three games; more than Antonio Brown (7), Larry Fitzgerald (7), Calvin Johnson (6), or Julio Jones (6) has all season. With
Thomas Rawls (ankle) out, expect Seattle to continue to lean on their aerial attack against a Browns defense that ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA.

Michael Floyd - FD 6100 DK 4400
Opponent- PHI
While Larry Fitzgerald has settled in as a chain-moving slot receiver (9.8 yards per reception, 1 TD over his last 8 games), Floyd has emerged as the Cardinals’ top WR. In his last five games, he has seen eight or more targets four times and eclipsed 100 yards receiving four times as well. The Eagles rank 30th in schedule adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to WRs.

Sammy Watkins - FD 7200 DK 6200
Opponent- WAS
Over his last three games, Watkins has come alive with an average of 116 yards and 1.33 TDs. His success is likely to continue against a Redskins defense ranked 20th in schedule adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to WRs and 22nd in pass defense DVOA. Watkins is averaging 20 yards per receptions since the Week 9 bye.

TIGHT END

Greg Olsen - FD 6800 DK 6900
Opponent- NYG
Olsen (knee) plans to play on Sunday, and has a pristine matchup against a Giants defense permitting the third most fantasy points per game to TEs. The G-Men have allowed the third most yards (872) and fifth most receptions (72) to the position. Olsen is second among TEs in targets per game (8.3), yards per game (74.5), and red zone targets (16).

Julius Thomas - FD 6200 DK 4700
Opponent- ATL
Thomas has scored a TD in four straight games, and looks to make it five straight against a Falcons defense that has allowed the fifth most TDs to TEs (8). Averaging 7.5 targets per game over his last four games, Thomas has begun to become a bigger part of the offense. With standout corner Desmond Trufant potentially shutting down one side of the field, more targets may be funneled inside to Thomas.

Benjamin Watson - FD 5600 DK 4800
Opponent- DET
We’re always looking for cheap volume, and Watson has received eight or more targets in each of his past three games. That cheap volume is even more valuable when it comes with Drew Brees at QB in the game with the week’s highest over/under (51). Only three teams have given up more schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to TEs than the Lions.

DEFENSE

Seattle Seahawks
A top-three defense in fantasy this season, the Seahawks are favored by more than two TDs at home against the Browns. Cleveland’s team total is a measly 14.3. The Browns rank dead last in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses.

Kansas City Chiefs
The red-hot Chiefs defense will get its turn against either Matt Schaub or Jimmy Clausen this week. Either way, carnage is likely to ensue. The Chiefs have scored double-digit fantasy points in six of their last seven games. They are favorites by more than a TD this weekend, with Baltimore’s team total hovering around 17 points.

New England Patriots
Anytime a team is favorites by double digits – no less two touchdowns – their defense should be on the fantasy radar. The Patriots have been installed as 14-point favorites against the Titans this weekend in Foxboro, with Tennessee’s team total sitting below 17 points. The Titans rank 29th in schedule adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to opposing defenses.

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