Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 12/15/15

Full disclosure: I'm writing this after watching Andre Drummond just miss an alley-oop, so I'm understandably grumpy. Chances are this will go like most nights: I'll slowly eke out the picks while watching my guys get injured/run bad, vacillating between telling Doug I'm going to take a night off tomorrow, starting to feel like there's a chance that I'll break even, and ultimately winning on the night. Or at least that's what I'm telling myself. I'm happy to have you aboard this ride, my friend.

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POINT GUARD

Jameer Nelson - FD 4200 DK 4500
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 24.97 DK Proj. Pts - 27.89
With Mudiay out for a while, Nelson is simply underpriced. He was a remarkable 85% start in the main slate 50/50s on Monday, and chances are good he'll be somewhere in that neighborhood in a super short slate on Tuesday as well. The Wolves have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, and I'll go ahead and call this a must play in all 50/50s with plenty of upside for big tournaments as well.

Patrick Beverley - FD 4200 DK 4900
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 21.7 DK Proj. Pts - 24.2
It always feels weird recommending two guys at basically the same price point, but a short slate like this might be a good spot to go double-cheap at point guard. Beverley's now on 9 straight games with 18+ fantasy points, often paying even better than that. Rondo and the Kings have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing point guards, and Beverley put up a reasonable 22.6 fantasy points against them earlier this season. He's particularly enticing on FanDuel, as I'll likely play Nelson ahead of him on DraftKings.

Isaiah Thomas - FD 8100 DK 7700
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 34.75 DK Proj. Pts - 37.13
A nice 50/50 play if you want to spend up a bit. Thomas will have a great match-up with some combination of Dellavedova/Mo Williams, and is one of the few to rise above the Brad Stevens minutes morass. He's shot 38 times in his last two games, and the Celtics are not afraid to overweight opportunities when the match-up calls for it. I'm not sure there's huge upside here (especially on this FanDuel price) but if you're looking for safety, I think it lives here.

A great FanDuel play: Ricky Rubio. He was on a very consistent role before a bad game against Phoenix, and I see no reason that that won't continue in a phenomenal match-up against Old-Man Nelson.

EDITOR'S NOTE: With Rajon Rondo suspended for a game, Darren Collison becomes something like a must-play in all formats.

SHOOTING GUARD

Kevin Martin - FD 4500 DK 4700
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 24.35 DK Proj. Pts - 26.03
Martin had his minutes buzzed off in the game against Phoenix, and if you didn't watch the game, you might not realize that all of the starters lost their minutes since the Wolves were down huge going into the fourth quarter. Martin should still be in line for 30+ minutes in a great match-up with the mix-and-match group the Nuggets put out there. Did I mention that he had shot 47 times in his previous two games, and he's still under $5,000? I like him in all formats.

James Harden - FD 10700 DK 10800
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 50.77 DK Proj. Pts - 54
I recommend Harden basically every night, and it gets tough to re-write the same basic concept each time. Did I mention I'm a little grumpy right now? Wall and Drummond are a combined 1x points per dollar at halftime. Grumpy James can't write up a fresh Harden write-up for this match-up. Here's what I wrote last night:

Harden has had gallons of haterade dumped on his head all season, but mostly by chumps who care about what happens in real basketball. In daily fantasy? We're as pleased as punch. Aside from a mysterious no-show against the Nets, Harden has been the most consistent superstar of the year - ripping off 2 week long stretches with 49+ fantasy points, and using as many of his team's possessions as anyone in the league.

Well, this match-up with the Kings is even better than his last - the Kings have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards in the league this season. Love Harden as the big money play of the day.

O.J. Mayo - FD 4900 DK 5700
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 25.81 DK Proj. Pts - 28.39
A simple production/opportunity/price mismatch - Mayo is still playing 35 minutes a game consistently, and the Lakers have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season. Seems super safe unless you hear news about one of the Bucks' many injured perimeter guys coming back.

Also considered: Gary Harris, who has played an average of 42 minutes in his first two games back from injury. He was great on his prices last night, if kind of lousy in his first game back.

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SMALL FORWARD

LeBron James - FD 10400 DK 10000
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 47.6 DK Proj. Pts - 49.61
So, I have to put James at the top of this list because he's the best points per dollar guy at his position and he's super expensive. That's a rare combo, and not one to be overlooked. On a night where you can go double-cheap at point guard, this is going to be a very hard one to pass up (especially if you pair him with Middleton, below). James has taken the mantle from Harden as the most consistent superstar in the league - a mortal lock for 40+ fantasy points with 50+ point upside. He doesn't have the transcendent upside of many stars because he's not quite as big a ball hog, but he's as steady as they come. The up and down style of the Celtics has them allowing the 6th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards, making James an even better play than usual.

Khris Middleton - FD 5700 DK 5300
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 23.74 DK Proj. Pts - 25.3
Middleton has emerged from Jason Kidd's doghouse, and is now playing a max effort 38+ minutes a night for the Bucks. He's on back to back games where you'd be very happy to have played him, and he'll have his best match-up in a while with the completely indifferent Kobe Bryant covering him. The Lakers have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season - this is a phenomenal play for safety and upside.

Danilo Gallinari - FD 7200 DK 7000
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 30.4 DK Proj. Pts - 32.67
Rudy Gay - FD 7000 DK 6900
Opponent - HOU FD Proj. Pts - 30.65 DK Proj. Pts - 32.05
If you decide to middle out the position, our system likes both of these guys just fine. Gay has been playing 35-40 minutes a game, and will have a nice match-up with the gimpy Ariza. Gallo is the same story - he's playing something like 40 minutes a game recently, and while his match-up with Wiggins isn't ideal, that's a lot of playing time for a pretty reasonable price. If the money works better to play these two instead of Middleton and 'Bron, I could see it working out.

POWER FORWARD

Kevin Love - FD 7800 DK 8000
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 34.94 DK Proj. Pts - 37.49
If there's anyone who's once bitten and twice shy on Kevin Love, it's yours truly. But this position is simply bad tonight, my friends. And really, this is a pretty nice match-up. There are two big things going for him here. First of all, the Celtics and their fast paced squad have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. Next, Love represents the exact guy that should kill him - Sullinger is something less than an elite athlete for the position, and he should have trouble with Love away from the basket. I feel confident here.

Kenneth Faried - FD 6400 DK 6000
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 27.64 DK Proj. Pts - 28.12
Faried's played 36 and 38 minutes in the last two games, and we may have finally reached the utopian future, where Faried's minutes are projectable. If that's the case, Faried will cost 10% more than this in the very near future. That makes him somewhat match-up proof for the moment, which is nice, because the Wolves really aren't a great match-up here. Again, though - short slate. Beggars and choosers and all. EDITOR's NOTE: Faried wound up getting his minutes buzzed off last night for seemingly no reason at all. This leaves me somewhat at a loss at the position, so I might play Jabari Parker after-all.

Also considered: Nobody. Real talk. I guess you could play Jabari Parker? I just gave a sanity click on every other guy at the position, and no one else plays more than like 12 minutes. Joffrey Lauvergne might be an interesting separation play, I guess, but this is ugly.

 

CENTER

Greg Monroe - FD 7800 DK 7100
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 30.29 DK Proj. Pts - 30.74
Things are starting no normalize in Milwaukee, perhaps for the very first time since I started playing daily fantasy basketball. Monroe has been playing 33-36 minutes on the regular, and is on 6 straight games with 30 or more fantasy points. Now, that's not really an exceptional total for what you're paying here - but the Lakers and the plodding Roy Hibbert have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. I suspect playing Monroe over Cousins will free up some much needed cash, and I'll likely be playing him everywhere.

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 9800 DK 10200
Opponent - HOU FD Proj. Pts - 47.34 DK Proj. Pts - 47.9
Another spot where you can consider spending up, but I like LeBron and Harden more. Boogie has been something less than boogalicious recently, and he wasn't great against Dwight in their last meeting. Still, our projection system thinks he's a solid play, and if you find it easier to go cheap at other positions, he's worth considering.

Also considered: Gorgui Dieng, who is still playing a decent amount of minutes.

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