Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Happy Monday! Another nice weekend for the DFSR family - the optimal NFL system lineup is sitting on 80 points with Eli, Beckham, Lamar Miller, and a kicker to play. The basketball system crushed on Friday, was passable on Saturday (even with Kristaps Porzingis no-showing on Saturday), and Sunday night is looking mighty fine as well. Well, Monday is a colossal 10 game slate - which means lots of options and lots of potential pitfalls. Let's try and wade through it.
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Damian Lillard - FD 9200 DK 8800
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 41.07 DK Proj. Pts - 44.73
Lillard has seen a little bit of price drift, but I'm not sure it's warranted. He's shot 27, 21, and 28 shots in his last three games - that's superstar shot totals on a discounted price. And today he'll get his best match-up of the season. The Pelicans have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, and matters won't be better with Holiday missing another game here. I like Lillard in any format.
John Wall - FD 9900 DK 9700
Opponent - MEM FD Proj. Pts - 45.78 DK Proj. Pts - 47.18
With Beal out, Wall has shot 24, 19, and 18 times in his last three games. He was averaging 16 shots a game before that. It's the John Wall show right now, and while he's getting more expensive, he's playing like a superstar - He's averaged 27/7/13 with Beal down. He'll have a nice match-up with Mike Conley and the Grizz, who have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. A great big money anchor for your line-ups in all formats.
Jameer Nelson - FD 4200 DK 4200
Opponent - HOU FD Proj. Pts - 21.51 DK Proj. Pts - 23.78
With Mudiay out, Nelson played 38 minutes and put up 38 fantasy points against the Nuggets. Simple price/opportunity mismatch - I'll play Nelson everywhere.
Deron Williams - FD 7100 DK 6600
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 31.68 DK Proj. Pts - 33.94
Raymond Felton - FD 4900 DK 4900
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 21.05 DK Proj. Pts - 22.7
Williams missed the Mavs' last game with an "illness," and Felton went out and had a triple double. He'll likely be back for this game, and you can probably consider playing both of them here. They're both underpriced relative to their recent production in a neutral match-up, and playing against the league's fastest team should make for more possessions for all. The Suns are also on the second half of a back to back, which might make for a little more room to operate on offense. I like both of these guys in 50/50s and double-ups.
Patrick Beverley is still too cheap for what he can do.
Wesley Matthews - FD 5600 DK 5600
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 26.34 DK Proj. Pts - 29.78
Not sure what else I can say about Matthews at this point. We've recommended him every night in December, and you've been thrilled by his performance in all but one of those games. He's actually been shooting more than we're conservatively projecting him for, and he's in all of our projection system's optimal lineups. Again, Phoenix plays the fastest pace in the league - this is a terrific play everywhere.
James Harden - FD 10700 DK 10800
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 49.05 DK Proj. Pts - 51.89
Harden has had gallons of haterade dumped on his head all season, but mostly by chumps who care about what happens in real basketball. In daily fantasy? We're as pleased as punch. Aside from a mysterious no-show against the Nets, Harden has been the most consistent superstar of the year - ripping off 2 week long stretches with 49+ fantasy points, and using as many of his team's possessions as anyone in the league. And a lot of people will be quick to point out that Harden absolutely eviscerated the Nugs in their previous meeting this season, putting together a 28/8/5/3/2 line in a rather embarrassing loss. The Nuggets have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing twos this season, and I'm preparing for another huge game here.
Courtney Lee - FD 3700 DK 3900
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 18.03 DK Proj. Pts - 19.33
Kyle Korver - FD 4500 DK 4500
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 20.28 DK Proj. Pts - 23.44
Your cheap options if you want to get away from the position and spend up elsewhere. They're likely appropriately priced versions of the same guy - lots of minutes, very little actual production, but enough minutes/shots that they almost never kill you. I'd be fine with either in 50/50s tomorrow.
Also considered: Monta Ellis. Lots of upside while Ellis' price continues to decline.
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Matt Barnes - FD 4100 DK 4300
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 26.53 DK Proj. Pts - 29.06
Jeff Green - FD 4100 DK 4600
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 17.24 DK Proj. Pts - 18.46
With Z-Bo relegated to the second unit and Tony Allen out, these guys played a combined 82 minutes on Sunday night. I'm not sure that's like to repeat itself on Monday, but they could each easily play 35ish minutes and pay these prices with their eyes closed. The Wiz played the 5th fastest PACE in the league. Fine plays in all formats.
Luol Deng - FD 4700 DK 4200
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 22.28 DK Proj. Pts - 23.5
It really feels like a day to go cheap at small forward. We wrote Deng up as the top play at the position on Sunday's micro-slate, and he delivered a solid 15/7/1 against the Grizzlies. Here's the thing about Deng - he's just not a sub $5,000 player when he's in a 35 minute rotation, and this price is arguably 20% too low. Another guy I'd be thrilled to play in all formats in a league average match-up with the Hawks.
If you're desperate to pay up at small forward, our position likes Paul George and Kawhi Leonard for about the same points per dollar performance. I'll personally spend up elsewhere (I like Wall and Harden considerably more), but I understand if you appreciate their safety.
Chris Bosh - FD 7600 DK 7200
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 36.53 DK Proj. Pts - 38.3
Bosh isn't a guy who creeps to the top of our system very often, but when he is, we pay attention. This is strictly a 50/50 play, but Bosh is playing 35-36 minutes every single night and has been producing when he does. There are a few interesting wrinkles to this match-up. The Hawks have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season, but it's the particular type of power forward match-up that I'm interested in. Ibaka ate the Hawks up in the mid-range game when the Thunder came to town, and Bosh's midrange game is basically Ibaka's on steroids. This one feels awfully safe to me.
Luis Scola - FD 4300 DK 4900
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 23.91 DK Proj. Pts - 24.29
Scola was the top play in our system last night, and will be up there again tonight (on FanDuel in particular). He's just playing 30 minute rotations, and is still a good player. The Pacers have been tough on opposing power forwards this season, but it's another case of a guy that's too cheap for what he can do on these minutes.
Blake Griffin - FD 9300 DK 9100
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 43.57 DK Proj. Pts - 44.23
A great match-up for Griffin with Ersan Ilyasova here. The Pistons have played the league's 9th slowest PACE, but have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. When Ilyasova isn't falling down with a grimace on his face, he's fouling people. All in all, it's a good match-up for Griffin, who the daily fantasy basketball community has fatigued on during a December shooting slump. Griffin's shot 45% in the month of December, and there's no reason to think that's anything but statistical noise. It'll start turning around soon enough, and I see no reason why that shouldn't begin tonight.
Also considered: Derrick Favors.
Nikola Vucevic - FD 7300 DK 6800
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 33.77 DK Proj. Pts - 34.25
Vucevic has looked terrific in the month of December, with his only real struggles coming when the score gets out of hand. Against another terrible team, that shouldn't be a very likely scenario. The Nets have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing centers this season, and I'd be fine with Vucevic in any format.
Andre Drummond - FD 9100 DK 9300
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 43.17 DK Proj. Pts - 43.97
Drummond has fallen out of fashion after a bad little string of luck (like the Pistons randomly blowing out the superior Pacers), and his price has consequently dipped into very affordable territory. The worst kept secret in the league about the Clippers has been that their big two down low don't really translate to much post defense - they've allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. I love this as a bounce-back Drummond game, especially because DeAndre Jordan is the last guy who should be able to get him into foul trouble.
Marcin Gortat - FD 6300 DK 6200
Opponent - MEM FD Proj. Pts - 29.23 DK Proj. Pts - 29.71
Our system keeps spitting out Marcin Gortat, and he keeps paying out 5x points per dollar. That's just a terrific 50/50 total. I'm not I can keep writing the very same things every night, so I'll just leave it up to you whether you want to play a guy who seemingly does the same thing every time he steps onto a basketball court.
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View Comments
I notice you mention in your opening paragraph the "optimal NFL and weekend NBA lineups". Is there an optimizer tool that I am missing here? I get how to use the lineup tool to see who's the best predicted pick at each position, but then how do you mathematically create the best line up that fits into the salary cap, since there are obviously many different combinations of the best players that could be cobbled together? Thank you in advance for reply.
Hey Doug,
This is going to be an unsatsifying answer - but we DO have a line-up optimizer in place, it's just not ready for user consumption (working out some bugs, adding bells and whistles). For the time being, users still go through the lineup creation process on their own.
Love the projection lineup tool. It's the best but I was wondering what time it is updated every day because I still have yesterday's lineup. Thanks.
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