Daily Fantasy NFL Football Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 14

Editor's note: Get ready for Raybon's insightful article on NFL's Week 14! He's done an amazing job breaking down the top plays of the week, but obviously, he could never include every single great play. If you want point projections for individual players? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get started with our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Draftpot.

The winner of the FanDuel Sunday Million last week had a three-man stack of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Martavis Bryant. Meanwhile, the winner of the DraftKings Millionaire Maker had a stack of the aforementioned three, plus DeAngelo Williams and the Steelers defense. Those lineups were able to gain major differentiation over the field because most entrants shy away from using anything other than a QB-WR or RB-DEF stack. However, we’ve seen a bunch of instances this season where winning lineups had creative, somewhat out of the box, stacks. As you create your tournament stacks, don’t limit yourself to the common stacks, especially in situations where one team could have a huge day on offense. For example, this week, stacking three or four of Jameis Winston, Doug Martin, Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins could pay off against a dismal Saints defense.

 

QUARTERBACKS

Russell Wilson - FD 8500 DK 6300
Opponent- BAL
Wilson has produced at least 25 fantasy points in three straight games, including back-to-back efforts of 34 or more. He’ll travel to Baltimore to take on a Ravens defense that ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed a 22:4 TD-to-interception ratio this season. With Marshawn Lynch out over the last three weeks, Wilson has turned it up: he is averaging four total TDs per game and has scored 80 percent of the team’s offensive TDs over that span.

Jameis Winston - FD 7800 DK 5500
Opponent- NO
Winston gets to take his turn against a Saints defense that has hemorrhaged fantasy points to QBs the entire season; they rank last in fantasy points allowed to QBs by a wide margin. The Saints rank last in QB rating allowed (116.6) and passing TDs per game allowed (2.9), and second to last in passing yards per game allowed (287.4). The Bucs have a team total of 27 this week -- significantly higher than their season average of 22.6. This bodes well for Winston, who has accounted for 85% of the Buccaneers’ offensive TDs this season.

Blake Bortles - FD 7700 DK 6000
Opponent- IND
A top-eight fantasy QB on the season, Bortles will take on a Colts defense that ranks 20th in passing DVOA allowed. The Colts also allow the third-most passing yards per game in the NFL (280.4). Only Tom Brady (75) has more red zone pass attempts than Bortles (74), as the Jaguars throw in the red zone 65 percent of the time.

Tyrod Taylor - FD 7500 DK 5400
Opponent- PHI
Coming off two stellar performances where he had three or more TDs in each game, Taylor will face an Eagles defense that ranks 29th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. The Eagles defense has fallen apart over the last three weeks, as they’ve allowed 298 yards per game and a 13:2 TD-to-interception ratio over that span.

 

RUNNING BACKS

Doug Martin - FD 8000 DK 6200
Opponent- NO
The Saints defense is not just terrible against the pass; they allow the most rushing yards per game (137.8) in the NFL as well. Martin has averaged 20.8 touches this season, and could do major damage with that volume against a Saints defense allowing the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to RBs in the NFL. The Bucs are 3.5-point favorites, which bodes well for Martin, who is averaging over 30 percent more production as a favorite this season

LeSean McCoy - FD 7900 DK 6100
Opponent- PHI
McCoy makes his return to Philadelphia for a revenge game against an Eagles defense that ranks 29th in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs. Over the last three weeks, the Eagles have bled 244 total yards and 1.3 TDs per game to RBs. McCoy has 20 or more touches in four straight games.

Jonathan Stewart - FD 7200 DK 5800
Opponent- ATL
J-Stew is finally starting to get the scoring opportunities that have eluded him for most of his career with Cam Newton. Stewart leads the league in red zone carries (43), is tied for ninth in carries inside the 10-yard line (15), and is tied for 14th in carries inside the 5-yard line. The Panthers are 7.5-point favorites against the Falcons, who rank 27th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.

Shaun Draughn - FD 6500 DK 4800
Opponent- CLE
With Draughn, you’re getting volume at a discount: he has tallied at least 18 or more touches in three straight games, while playing roughly 90 percent of the snaps over that span. He gets a prime matchup against the Browns, who rank 31st in rushing yards per game allowed (136.3) and are tied for 28th in yard per carry allowed (4.6).

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WIDE RECEIVERS

Odell Beckham - FD 9300 DK 9100
Opponent- MIA
OBJ has now racked up 100 yards or more in five straight games, averaging 13.4 targets per game over that span. He will take on a Miami defense that ranks 25th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs. This game has shootout potential, as both teams rank 25th or lower in pass defense DVOA.

Eric Decker - FD 7300 DK 6400
Opponent- TEN
Decker continues his amazingly consistent season with a matchup against the Titans, who have allowed the most fantasy points to WRs over the past three weeks. Decker, meanwhile, has posted 80 yards and/or a TD in every game this season. Tat type of consistency is almost unheard of and makes Decker a WR1, but he is not priced like one.

Sammy Watkins - FD 7200 DK 6100
Opponent- PHI
Watkins is heating up at the right time, with two straight 100-yard games (and three in his last five games). He will take on an Eagles defense that ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to WRs (what else is new?). Watkins is averaging 25.5 yards per reception over the past three weeks, while only four teams have allowed more 20-yard passing plays than the Eagles during that span.

Doug Baldwin - FD 6800 DK 4500
Opponent- BAL
Baldwin has raised his game in concert with Russell Wilson, with lines of 7-134-1, 6-60, 6-145-3, and 5-94-2 over his last four games. Those lines equate to an average of six catches, 108 yards, and 1.5 TDs. As mentioned earlier, Baltimore ranks 26th in pass defense DVOA.
If you want to read more about DFS strategy check out TheSportsGeek.com's DFS strategy articles.

TIGHT END

Greg Olsen - FD 6600 DK 6900
Opponent- ATL
Olsen leads all TEs in targets this season (104) and will face a Falcons defense that ranks 26th in schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs. He has been held under 50 yards only twice all season. He is also tied for second at the position with 15 red zone targets this season.

Scott Chandler - FD 5800 DK 3800
Opponent- HOU
As it turns out, “Tom Brady’s tight end” is a valuable asset even if his name isn’t Rob Gronkowski. With Gronk out, Chandler has racked up 18 targets over the last two games, turning them into 119 yards and two TDs. He produced in a tough on-paper matchup with the Eagles last week, and should have no trouble doing so again in a similarly tough matchup against Houston.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins - FD 5500 DK 2700
Opponent- NO
Who ranks last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs? Why, the Saints, of course! ASJ had been out for a long while prior to his return last week, which may keep his ownership in check in a gorgeous matchup. ASJ has already shown his upside with Jameis Winston at the helm, posting a 5-110-2 line in Week 1.

 

 

DEFENSE

Denver Broncos
The Broncos face a Raiders team that ranks in the bottom third of the league in terms of schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. The Broncos – who are the highest scoring fantasy defense this season by over two points over second place – are favored by over a TD at home against the Raiders. Derek Carr has thrown multiple interceptions twice in his last four outings.

Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks travel to Baltimore to face a Ravens team that will start either a banged up Matt Schaub or Jimmy Clausen (who has played like he’s banged up his entire career). Seattle – a top-three fantasy defense this season – is currently a six-point favorite, and should have no problem stymieing a Ravens offense devoid of playmakers at every position.

Kansas City Chiefs
Anytime a team is a double-digit favorite, their defense should be on your radar. The Chiefs are 10-point favorites against the Chargers this weekend at Arrowhead. San Diego is been completely snakebitten by injuries at the skill positions and along their offensive line this season, and scored only three points against the Chiefs three weeks ago.

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