Detroit Pistons' Andre Drummond (0) scores as San Antonio Spurs defenders Boris Diaw (33) and Patty Mills (8) look on during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2015, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Happy Monday! We're positively bubbly here at DFSR after our Sunday lineups for both NBA and NFL went to the moon. Cam Newton here, Wes Matthews there... a beautiful, beautiful thing. Hope y'all have a good case of the Mondays as well, and if not? Perhaps you should read these picks, which should help you feel confident going into tonight's slate, and clear up your complexion. Let's party.
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Isaiah Thomas - FD 7800 DK 7700
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 36.59 DK Proj. Pts - 39.44
Thomas kept showing up in our projection system's optimal lineups against the Spurs, but I'm sad to admit that we didn't trust it enough to play him everywhere. Well, Thomas went ahead and put up 23/4/8 with a couple of steal and made his owners very, very happy. Thankfully, I don' tthink I'll make the same mistake tonight. Thomas has quite simply found a home in Boston. He's shooting nearly 17 shots per game (a career high) while also setting career high per-game numbers for assists and steals. He's played 35 minutes a game recently, and even if you project him for a more conservative 33 minutes he's the 2nd best points per dollar guy in our system. The main reason for that is the New Orleans Pelicans - they've allowed a simply awful 44.3 fantasy points per game to opposing point guard s(good for 2nd most in the league), and Thomas should be able to get into the lane with ease.
Raymond Felton - FD 3900 DK 4000
Opponent - NYK FD Proj. Pts - 20.6 DK Proj. Pts - 22.2
Felton is playing a ton of minutes for the Mavs right now, and if you're watching the games, you've noticed that he has the ball in his hands a ton. I wouldn't be too worried about Chandler Parsons coming back for this game - Felton played 34 minutes the last time Parsons took the floor. This is simply a case of price not matching opportunity and skill-set. Felton won't light the world on fire, but he's solid enough that he probably has a 20 fantasy point floor, making him a terrific guy to grab so you can pay up elsewhere.
Kyle Lowry - FD 9300 DK 8900
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 40.03 DK Proj. Pts - 42.51
I mentioned that the Pelicans have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, and if you keep your finger on the pulse of basketball at all, you likely know that the Lakers have given up the very most points to opposing PGs. I list Lowry down this far because the price on him has gotten semi-outrageous. I doubt I'd play him in nearly any other match-up. But there's definitely a scenario in which Lowry just runs a lay-up line throughout this game, and if he does, he'll be a very nice way to invest a decent chunk of your salary in double-up formats. It's hard for me to imgaine going away from the above guys, but if you do, this would be the spot to do it.
Also considered: Brandon Knight, who our projection system actually likes more than Lowry on a points per dollar basis here.
If John Wall sits, I'd give a boost to Garrett Temple.
Even with Chris Paul out, I just can't stomach Austin Rivers.
Jamal Crawford - FD 4600 DK 5600
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 25.49 DK Proj. Pts - 27.81
An absolute must-play on FanDuel if Chris Paul and JJ Redick sit again. Crawford put up 32 points and 5 assists in a tough match-up with Victor Oladipo, and while Minnesota isn't a great match-up necessarily, Crawford would be a $6,000+ player if this were his role for the entire season. There isn't much more analysis needed, here. Like Felton, the price doesn't match the opportunity.
Wesley Matthews - FD 4800 DK 4800
Opponent - NYK FD Proj. Pts - 22.39 DK Proj. Pts - 25.51
The top guy from a points per dollar perspective in our system for Sunday, and he went ahead and paid 10x points per dollar while tying the Mavericks' record for 3 pointers made in a game. We've been saying this all along - there's no reason why Matthews should have been shooting as poorly as he did, and he looked as athletic as ever running off of screens against the Wizards. The Wiz play fast, but Beal is a tough defender, and what Matthews did on Sunday was pretty special. Well, tonight he's got something of a different match-up. The Knicks have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season, and I suspect Matthews will have plenty of good looks once again. A great play in all formats.
Jimmy Butler - FD 8300 DK 7700
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 37.1 DK Proj. Pts - 38.67
At 38 minutes a game, Butler looks like a terrific 50/50 and double up play once again - especially on DraftKings. Hoiberg has finally given in to the devil on his shoulder, and his playing Butler huge minutes... and it's a lovely thing for our fantasy purposes. A quick daily fantasy lesson - guys who play as consistent minutes as Butler (picture LeBron) rarely make great big tournament plays because their price tends to normalize around their production, but in the right match-up, they wind up being terrific double-up plays. The Suns are one such match-up for Butler. They've played the fastest PACE all season, and the increase in possessions should mean plenty of extra production for Butler as well. As safe a play as they come, if you have the money to spend up on him.
Keep an eye on OJ Mayo - if the Bucks' backcourt situation remains the mess that it has been, he'll be something like a must play according to our projection system on Monday. Gerald Green gets an honorable mention in the punt department.
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Marcus Morris - FD 6300 DK 6300
Opponent - CHA FD Proj. Pts - 27.61 DK Proj. Pts - 29.75
Small forward is looking fairly tough unless we get some extra news at some point. I'm worried about Kawhi's minutes in a likely blow-out with Philly, and Batum has a terrible match-up with the super-slow Pistons. That leaves Morris at the top of my list. Before losing minutes in a bizarre blowout of the Lakers, Morris had paid 5x and 7x points per dollar on these prices, and if you've been reading here, it was no surprise to you. Morris has run bad on open looks this season, and a statistical regression has seemed imminent for quite some time. The Hornets are a slightly below average match-up for opposing small forwards, but that's just the state of the position tonight. It's hard to imagine Morris going off, but he looks pretty safe for 50/50 purposes tonight.
Andrew Wiggins - FD 7200 DK 7000
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 32 DK Proj. Pts - 32.78
The other big minute safety guy for the night. I'm not sure the Clippers have been able to defend the small forward position since they came into the league, and right now might be the darkest point in their history in that department. They're playing a league average PACE, but allowing the 8th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. Wiggins represents a far too athletic match-up for the corpse of Pierce, the scatterbrained Stephenson, or the undersized Crawford. Wiggins, from my perspective, looks poised for a break-out. He's shooting 24% more shots per minute than he did last year, and his playing high 30s minutes every time out there. As long as he can fade a blow-out, I love him in all formats.
Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 5400 DK 5300
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 24.58 DK Proj. Pts - 25.57
One of my favorite big tournament plays at the position today. Aminu has everything you like in a big tourney play - he's good on a fantasy points per minute basis, and his minutes are pretty erratic. It's the opposite of what I wrote about Butler - erratic minutes has his price depressed for what he can do when he's got a hot hand, making him a guy that can either screw you or fill it up for you. This game really should be one of those good ones, too. The Bucks have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season, and their injury situation has them looking like a true mess right now. Tons of upside here.
Also considered: Otto Porter. Huge minutes for Porter right now, and he paid 6x points per dollar against the Mavs last night. A very interesting play in any format, and might just wind up making an appearance in my 50/50s.
On DraftKings Melo's price is very enticing.
Anthony Davis - FD 11200 DK 10700
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 50.81 DK Proj. Pts - 51.6
Brow looks for all the world to be the safest big money play of the day in this match-up with the fast paced Celtics. The Celtics have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season, and while I like Sullinger for a lot of reasons, his below the rim style just won't compute against Davis here. The Pelicans' franchise player is finally playing the way many predicted this season, averaging 55 fantasy points in his last 4 games, and he looks for all the world like a guy who's going to be a $12,000 player on FanDuel before the season is out. Seems like a phenomenal play in all formats, especially given how you can definitely save up at a few positions tonight.
Chris Bosh - FD 7800 DK 7300
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 37.2 DK Proj. Pts - 38.89
I've been hesitant to deploy Bosh recently, but the price on DraftKings in particular here is just too much. The Wizards are playing crazy small right now with all of their front-court injury issues, and they're playing the 3rd fastest PACE in the NBA. Extra possessions, and no usable player over 6'8'' should gives us visions of Bosh in his Toronto days. I especially like that Wade has a tough match-up with Beal here as well. I like Bosh in any format.
Marvin Williams - FD 5000 DK 5600
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 24.46 DK Proj. Pts - 26.66
My favorite cheap play of the day, on FanDuel in particular. Williams is a lock for 31 minutes right now with Al Jefferson dead and buried, and he's been paying on these prices in spite of running terribly from the field. Detroit plays slow, but Ersan Ilyasova is the weak link in their defense. If Williams shoots his normal percentage, 5x points per dollar seems like a very reasonable expectation here. One interesting play might be grabbing both Williams and Zeller for cheap and locking up all of the Hornets' front-court production, such as it is.
Cody Zeller might wind up being a fantastic punt once again here.
If Chris Paul sits, Blake's usage goes through the roof. Keep an eye on that one, and you can probably start him ahead of Bosh even with the increase in price.
If Jon Leuer is going to get big minutes again, he looks like a terrific play. Wouldn't be shocked to see him get them, either, with Markieff Morris back in the dog house (AKA the Markieff house).
Andre Drummond - FD 9600 DK 9300
Opponent - CHA FD Proj. Pts - 44.26 DK Proj. Pts - 45.11
Another fantastic spot to spend up today. After getting something of a rest against the Lakers, Drummond will have another soft ball match-up with the Hornets. With Jefferson out, the short handed Hornets don't really start a true center. And Drummond? He's just a man among boys out there, leading the league in rebounds by nearly 4 per game. The Hornets have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. This will be a blood bath.
DeAndre Jordan - FD 7200 DK 7000
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 34.74 DK Proj. Pts - 35.41
Mostly an interesting off-beat play if you decide to not go with Drummond. Jordan's usage climbs 20% when Chris Paul has been off the court this season, and those extra looks really make a big difference for a guy who hardly shoots. Minnesota isn't a particularly great match-up for opposing centers or anything, but this is a nice combination of "DeAndre's priced a little low because of a slow start" and "he should be a little better without a ball dominant guy out there."
Omer Asik is a minimum priced guy who is playing 22-25 minutes. And he's sucked. But that could turn, if you want an interesting punt.
Bismack Biyombo's minutes seem to be headed in the wrong direction, but holy God, that match-up with the Lakers. If he gets the starting nod, it will be hard to resist playing him at true punt prices once again.
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View Comments
Hey, I would like to have your take L. Nogueira in Toronto. He played big minutes the other night against GS and also provided in a lot of different ways for the team and also left Biyombo to 14-15 min of play.
I would believe that with Hibbert being there for LA he's bigger and stronger then Ezeli, so it wouldn't surprise me that Biyombo would play more tonight then Sunday night.
Would it be far fetch to create a line with Nogueira in case he steps in for Biyombo and plays an amazing game, I wouldn't play it in all my games but I'm tempted to try and create one or two line ups with him. For his cost of 3000$ on DK he could potentially bring 15-20+ points.
Thanks in advance for the input.