Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 12/5/15

Well, we just got done putting in lineups during one of the craziest lineup locks in recent memory. Markieff is out, then he's back, then he's starting, then he's not.. and we still wound up with Jon Leuer almost everywhere. Whee. If you're reading this tomorrow, you're either thrilled for us or you think we totally suck. Either way, it should be a fun one. Where were we? Ah yes, the Saturday slate.
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POINT GUARD

Patrick Beverley - FD 3900 DK 4400
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 20.93 DK Proj. Pts - 23.46
What does Beverley have to do to see a price increase on FanDuel? He's been a stone cold lock for 20+ FanDuel fantasy points, and he's pretty much locked into his current rotation. Tonight he'll face the Kings, who have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing point guards, and will have to play their best (such as it is) perimeter defender on Harden. A suspect we'll see a lot of open looks for Beverley tonight, and potentially a nice high ceiling opportunity on both sites here.

Damian Lillard - FD 9500 DK 8900
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 41.26 DK Proj. Pts - 44.79
Lillard has put up 40 or more fantasy points in 7 of his last 8 games, and is now averaging 20.1 shots a game. That's fully 20% more shots per minute than last year. He's making the most of the increased usage while maintaining a similar true shooting percentage, and is getting 15% more assists per minute as well. He has a fantastic match-up with the Wolves, who have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. Against a hobbled Ricky Rubio, they should be even worse. He looks for all the world like the safest 50/50 play of the night at the position.

Isaiah Thomas - FD 7600 DK 7700
Opponent - SAS FD Proj. Pts - 34.33 DK Proj. Pts - 36.55
If you think the Celts can hang, Thomas makes for a pretty interesting play tonight. Like Lillard, Thomas has seen increased involvement in every phase of the offensive game, shooting 5.8 more times and dishing 2.7 more assists per game than last season. The Spurs have been basically league average against opposing point guards this season, and Tony Parker has absolutely lost a step or two, but there is some risk that the Cs don't wind up hanging here. Still, Thomas hasn't scored fewer than 32 fantasy points in 5 games, and put up a couple of 42+ fantasy point performances in that time. I think the above guys are safer, but I doubt many will hvae the stomach to play him, and there's a scenario in which he puts up a big game.

On DraftKings the price is kind of irresistible on Goran Dragic. Our projection system likes him on a conservative 31 minutes, so if his last two games are anything to be believed, he could be a huge value here. Heck, if you think the 35 minutes are legit, he might be a play on FanDuel as well.

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden - FD 10800 DK 10500
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 51.64 DK Proj. Pts - 54.97
I'm not sure what else daily fantasy owners could ask of James Harden at this point. He's playing around 40 minutes per game almost regardless of how the game goes, and has put up 49 fantasy points or more in every game since November 20th. He's averaging career highs in shots, points, three pointers, free throws, and rebounds. And he's still at a slight discount to some of the other big names. If you're a sucker for small sample sizes, Harden absolutely blitzed the Kings in their one match-up this season, putting up a ridiculous 43/7/13 time en route to helping people with their big daily fantasy basketball tournaments. There's no one on this team that can hang with him, and I expect him to do it once again.

Gerald Green - FD 3600 DK 4700
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 22.76 DK Proj. Pts - 25.47
With Luol Deng out again, you can get a guy who's a lock for 27+ minutes at a near minimum salary on FanDuel (where he's a must play) and a reasonable salary on DraftKings (where's merely a good play). Green is fairly scoring dependent (and can disappear when his shot isn't falling, the way he did the last two games), but the price is so low that it almost doesn't matter. \ In this game he'll be up against JR Smith, who's an indifferent defender at best. I love him as a cheap way to get some big names in your lineup, on FanDuel in particular.

J.R. Smith - FD 5400 DK 5300
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 24.47 DK Proj. Pts - 28.19
Speak of the Devil! JR Smith is another guy who's just not priced to his current opportunity and production, playing a solid 37 minutes when the Cavs keep it close. His price remains relatively depressed after two awful shooting nights in a row, but he's getting a lot of open looks with the way the Cavs can space the floor, and he's bound to regress to his established shooting percentage levels at some point in the near future. And, like Green, his price is so low that it might not even matter. Case in point - he paid nearly 5x points per dollar in his last two games in spite of some terrible shooting. The Heat are a fairly tough match-up for opposing shooting guards, but if he's going to shoot 13-16 times (like he has been recently), it'll be tough for him not to pay value on these prices.

Also considered: Rodney Stuckey, even though Utah plays the game's slowest PACE.

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SMALL FORWARD

Nicolas Batum - FD 7100 DK 7200
Opponent - CHI FD Proj. Pts - 31.99 DK Proj. Pts - 34.14
It's still a little early to tell how the Al Jefferson absence is going to play out, but early returns have Batum seeing an even bigger increase in usage than he did upon coming to the Hornets. It looks like he'll be something like a 15 shots per game guy now (instead of the 12.5 that he had been shooting), and if that's the case, he'll warrant a 10% increase in salary or so in the not too distant future. Jefferson being out is truly a lot of shot sto redistribute, and Batum is one of their few talent offensive players. The Bulls are a slightly above average match-up for opposing small forwards (allowing the 13th most fantasy points to opposing small forward this season). On a night that looks a little shaky for small forwards, I think Batum is the safest 50/50 play going.

LeBron James - FD 10000 DK 10000
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 45.88 DK Proj. Pts - 47.69
A lot of people will go with Paul George in this spot because he's had some eye-popping performances, but we'll stick with LeBron James, for 50/50s in particular. For one, George will be playing the Jazz, who play the very slowest PACE in the league. And really, LeBron is no slouch himself. King James has been one of the very safest big money guys this season, and the Heat will likely be without the only guy (Luol Deng) who can think about hanging with him. I like Justise Winslow as a future defensive stopper, but there's just no way LeBron lets him stand in his way in this match-up with his former team. LeBron's production has been a little boring recently, but boring on $10,000 salary can be a good thing for 50/50s. I'll be fine if I wind up with Harden and LeBron anchoring my double-ups tonight.

Carmelo Anthony - FD 8300 DK 8000
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 38.59 DK Proj. Pts - 40.58
Melo is off to a good start as of this writing against the Nets, taking the most shots on his team and putting up 23.5 fantasy points in the first half. His scoring pace will likely drop off if the Knicks conitnue to destroy the Nets, but in what should be a closer match-up with the Bucks, that hopefully won't be the case. The Bucks have been truly awful against small forwards this season, allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season, and that rates to continue against one of the league's best small forward scorers.

Also considered: Tobias Harris.

Our system also loves Trevor Ariza, but I'm a little spooked. He's shooting less, and shooting worse. Still, he's suuuper cheap (on DraftKings on particular), and he might not be a bad play on FanDuel for 50/50s as well.

POWER FORWARD

Kristaps Porzingis - FD 7300 DK 8100
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 39.17 DK Proj. Pts - 40.6
I guess we're just going to have to keep playing this guy until the Knicks reduce his minutes again? The Zinger lost a few minutes due to foul trouble (and will likely lose some if the Knicks close this out in blow-out fashion). In spite of that, he's nearly already paid his price just 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter. Doug and I were talking about this last night, and we're starting to wonder if Porzingis is just a true value $9,000 player before the season comes to a close. He'll have one of his best match-ups of the season against the undersized Bucks, whose front court features guys that are either too slow (Monroe) or too small (everybody else). I see no reason why you shouldn't play Kristaps in every format.

Chris Bosh - FD 7900 DK 7300
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 36.16 DK Proj. Pts - 37.82
Our projection system just loves Bosh and what he can do against Kevin Love, here. The Cavs have not allowed huge fantasy totals to opposing power forwards this season, but that's largely a function of the Cavs' PACE and not their ability to chase guys like Bosh around the mid-range. Bosh has seen an increase in usage since Deng went down, shooting nearly 17 shots per game in that time. I think he's a must play on DraftKings, and a fine play on FanDuel as well.

Marvin Williams - FD 4900 DK 5600
Opponent - CHI FD Proj. Pts - 24.14 DK Proj. Pts - 26.25
Just in case you feel like going cheap at the position. The Hornets are out of big men who can do anything at all, and while Marvin can't do a whole heck of a lot, he doesn't need to on these fantastic prices (on FanDuel in particular). Jefferson going down means more shots for everyone, but the real value Williams brings to the table comes from his diverse skill set and tons of minutes. Chicago is playing a top 10 PACE in the league this season, and the increase in possessions should mean a little bit extra production in all the little things Williams does well.
DraftKings play: Pau Gasol. The $7,200 price tag is just ridiculous, especially given the slight usage increase he should see with Mirotic out again.

Also considered: Blake Griffin. Just lots of value at the position tonight in the mid-high range.
 

CENTER

Centers can be broken down by tier today, as there are a lot of comparable plays from a points per dollar perspective. Let's dive in.

Expensive tier:
DeMarcus Cousins - FD 10300 DK 10800
Opponent - HOU FD Proj. Pts - 51.81 DK Proj. Pts - 52.44
Cousins has vacillated between hurt and amazing this season, and if his first game back was any indication, we should be entering an amazing phase here. He lost minutes in a blowout to the Cs, but he should be in a more competitive game here with the truly lost Rockets. If he goes out and gets his high 30s minutes, he's almost a lock for 4.5x points per dollar. The Rockets have been playing an up and down style this year and have played some truly horrendous defense, sporting the league's 3rd worst defensive efficiency.

Mid-range:
Nikola Vucevic - FD 7300 DK 6800
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 34.44 DK Proj. Pts - 34.92
DeAndre Jordan - FD 7200 DK 7100
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 34.96 DK Proj. Pts - 35.63
Our system is offering nearly identical projections for these guys (who also happen to be facing one another), so it felt disingenuous to list one over the other. They've allowed nearly the same fantasy points per game to opposing centers (46.6 for the Clips, 46.3 for the Magic), and these guys have a similar fantasy baseline (around 32 fantasy points on FanDuel). So, flip a coin, I guess? If I had to pick one, I'd go with Vucevic just because I think the upside is greater if he gets going offensively. I don't think you can do too badly on either, though, as both represent a value on what their price has been in the past.

Cheap Tier:
Joakim Noah - FD 4400 DK 4300
Opponent - CHA FD Proj. Pts - 19.29 DK Proj. Pts - 19.67
If Mirotic is out again, Noah will likely get the start, and could put up pretty tremendous production for these ridiculously low prices. Keep in mind that Noah was a true value $6,000 player when starting in the past, and he'll have a great match-up against the Jeffersonless Hornets.

Also considered: Capela, who has been getting his minutes with or without Dwight. If Terrence Jones steals the starting job back, though, this could be bad. Looks a big tournament play only.
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