Value and Sleeper Picks for Daily Fantasy NFL Football for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 13

It's another value picks and sleepers article for the 2015 NFL season! With a couple of weeks under our belts, some players are already undervalued on DraftKings and FanDuel. Roles change more rapidly in NFL than they do anywhere else, leaving us a huge opportunity to get to cashing in. Here are some guys that our projection system likes that you might not see elsewhere.

We've also got Chris Raybon's Week 13 NFL picks sitting there waiting for you to digest.

Want to find more sleepers and potential breakout daily fantasy football stars for the NFL in week 5? Go ahead and get access to the exclusive projection system that produces these picks. Sign up now and get a free 3 day trial to our lineup construction tool for FanDuel, DraftKings and Starsdraft.

 

 

 

If you read last week's value picks article and trusted some of our system's deeper value plays then you were a happy camper at the end of Monday night. Marcus Mariota, Lamar Miller and Delanie Walker ended up in many of the winning GPP lineups on the day and were top pts/$ plays in our system. We received a lot of love (and a lot of winning screenshots) from users this week. Very pumped about the success and looking to roll it back for Week 10.
A couple of notes on these picks. They are geared a little more towards DraftKings where, because of pricing range difference, it's a little easier to suss out some value on a given slate. Additionally, remember that these aren't necessarily your super safe cash game plays. There is always a little more risk with these picks than the ones laid out in Chris's Week 9 picks article.

QUARTERBACKS

Alex Smith - FD 6600 DK 5100
Opponent- OAK
This one might be a little off board, but I will say our system's been particularly adept at picking out quarterback value over the course of the season. And Alex Smith is coming in at or near the top of the list in terms of points per dollar value coming into this week. The Oakland Raiders rank near the bottom of the league in terms of overall defense and covering the passing game. I see Smith as a solid cash game alternative in that he most likely won't bust it out of the box with a top end performance, but I don't suspect he kills you either. He adds a nice floor with his legs as he's rushed for about 30 yards in each of the last three games. And look at that, I've talked myself into Alex Smith.

Marcus Mariota - FD 7100 DK 5500
Opponent- JAC
Not nearly as safe as Smith (if you can consider Smith safe at all) but Mariota is coming very cheap and has a great matchup against the Jags. Jacksonville ranks 30th in the league in DVOA against the pass and have been ritualistically shredded by opposing quarterbacks. Only San Fran and New Orleans are worse. Mariota's had a predictably uneven freshman campaign, but the price reflects as much. The threat of some rushing yards helps and he has shown an ability to produce against weaker defenses.

 

 

RUNNING BACKS

Let me start by saying that David Johnson is the clear punt option here. Chris covered him in the main picks article, but I just have to mention him again. Doesn't have the best matchup, so I wouldn't consider him an absolute lock, but he's the cheap play for sure.

Spencer Ware - FD 6500 DK 4900
Opponent- OAK
Charcandrick West - FD 6700 DK 5200
Opponent- OAK
West is set to return to action this week. I know the Chiefs have come out and said it's a running back committee situation with he and Ware. The thing about NFL news like this is I just have a hard time trusting any of it. There is no incentive for coaches to be completely forthright with their game planning ahead of time, so it makes total sense for them to just hedge on the idea of an RBBC. It may be true, but I somewhat doubt it, especially if the game is close. Why mix and match? I'm tempted to say West gets a majority of the carries here if he's healthy. He's still coming cheap and has a great matchup against the Raiders who rank low against the run this season. I put Ware here as well because the pendulum could just as easily swing the other way. This is to say, I think both of these guys make interesting tournament plays.

Lamar Miller - FD 6700 DK 5800
Opponent- BAL
Oof, he's been atrocious the last couple of weeks. And so have the Dolphins. But Miller is still the lead back for Miami and this is a better matchup than their last two. There's no excuse for his game against Dallas, but the Jets' game was over quick and they are one of the best teams against the run. I see Miller as a tournament play whose price is depressed (rightfully so) thanks to a couple of very bad weeks. If he's in the 15-19 carry range then you could see some real separation value.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Allen Robinson - FD 8000 DK 7300
Opponent- TEN
Marqise Lee - FD 4600 DK 3000
Opponent- TEN
With Allen Hurns on the shelf now, that opens up quite a few targets in the Jags' offense. Both Robinson and Lee stand to see the upticks in usage for this game. Robinson is the clear WR1 and is already one of the league leaders in targets per game at 9.91. But Hurns was seeing more than 7 looks per contest and it stands to reason we see Robinson get a few of those with Lee seeing the big uptick if he's starting. I like these guys at their different price points and don't suspect either are big percentage starts.

Marvin Jones - FD 5200 DK 3800
Opponent- CLE
Way, way off board but there are some things to like about Jones if you are attempting to hit a min-priced home run on a guy. He gets steady if unspectacular looks on a consistent basis and has even had a share of red zone targets this season (8). He hasn't been in the end zone lately but was second on the team in targets last week with five. Again, this isn't a safety play by any means the Browns have struggled to defend against teams WR2 and WR3 this season.
 

TIGHT ENDS

Scott Chandler - FD 5300 DK 2500
Opponent- PHI
No Gronk? No problem. Well actually, yes probably a big problem for the Patriots, but not for Chandler. Grinch's demise is Chandler's gain as the latter stands to see the tight end looks for the Pats. He caught five passes for 58 yards and touchdown last week once Gronk went down. I wouldn't pencil him in for the touchdown, but the targets and yards should be there. New England is big favorites in a game where they are expected to put up points. We know Brady likes to go to the TE (they have the best one ever, so why not?) but more importantly they are short on options.

Love what you read, and hungry to learn more about putting together winning daily fantasy football lineups? Check out our FREE eBook by getting a copy below. Want to cut out the research, and just get the best plays? Grab a free 3 day trial of our projection system, on us!