Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 12/1/15

Happy December! That means a Winter Parking Ban here in New Hampshire, which is pretty annoying. It also means even more NBA basketball. Does anyone even read these opening blurbs, or do you just skip ahead to the picks? My guess is you skip ahead to the picks. Leave a comment below if you don't.

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POINT GUARD

Ish Smith - FD 6600 DK 6900
Opponent - MEM FD Proj. Pts - 35.88 DK Proj. Pts - 37
Mike Conley - FD 7000 DK 6700
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 33.71 DK Proj. Pts - 34.7
If you're looking to anchor your double-ups tonight, I really like both of the point guards in this match-up. Both have been playing as many as 37-38 minutes recently, and have provided terrific floors (though Smith has had more upside). They both have great match-ups against one another. The Pelicans have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season. The Grizz have been about average againts opposing PGs. I like Smith more in all formats, and think he's a much better big tournament play, but like Conley quite a bit for 50/50s.

Isaiah Canaan - FD 4400 DK 5000
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 22.11 DK Proj. Pts - 25.31
Canaan's price is steadily climbing (especially on DraftKings), but he remains a terrific value here for a couple of reasons. He's been a steady source of 32-35 minutes as a starter, and has been paying 5x-6x points per dollar on these prices.
Strongly Consider: Deron Williams. Dude has been paying 5x points per dollar in his sleep, and has a phenomenal match-up with Lillard and the Trail Blazers. I'd consider him above Conley here, but not above the other two. The real reason for this selection, though, is Canaan's opposing. D'Angelo Russell might wind up being a nice offensive talent, but as a member of an indifferent defensive culture, he's been an atrocity. The Lakers are the most generous team in the league to opposing point guards, allowing about 15% more than league average. Love Canaan everywhere.

SHOOTING GUARD

Eric Bledsoe - FD 8700 DK 8300
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 37.89 DK Proj. Pts - 39.32
My friends, this might be the very worst day to select a shooting guard in recent memory. I'm completely sure Bledsoe will wind up in all of our optimal lineups, but I'll make the case as to why. He's a lock for high 30s minutes, and he's been good for better than a fantasy point per minute on the season. The real kicker? He's got the best match-up for shooting guards in the league. Old/slow Joe Johnson and the Nets have allowed 18% more fantasy scoring than league average. Again, this is a bad night for SGs, and Bledsoe's a play everywhere.

J.R. Smith - FD 5300 DK 5300
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 24.52 DK Proj. Pts - 28.13
Smith has been a minutes machine recently - a lock for 36 minutes, and playing 38-39 minutes in many games. Smith is shooting less this season, but the increase in minutes and the reasonable price have made him a great high floor option recently. He never really goes off, but he has paid 4.5x-5x points per minute in 7 of his last 8. The Wizards have played the 4th fastest PACE in the NBA this season, and the increase in possessions should be great for Smith as well.

C.J. McCollum - FD 6700 DK 6600
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 28.09 DK Proj. Pts - 30
I'm guessing that quite simply everyone will play CJ McCollum tonight. He's cheaper than Bledsoe, and while he's not as good, he's provided a nice points per dollar floor recently. It's about a league average match-up with the Mavs, though, and McCollum's price has been creeping up recently. If we're being real for a second, I'm almost definitely going to play Smith and Bledsoe everywhere. But I felt like inquiring minds would want to know about a guy who will be a very popular play.

Also considered: Bradley Beal, on DraftKings.

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SMALL FORWARD

LeBron James - FD 10100 DK 9700
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 47.76 DK Proj. Pts - 50.07
Your easy, run-away best big money play of the night. The Wizards have allowed 10% more fantasy points than the second most generous team in the NBA to opposing small forwards this season. That's just... I can't even. Again, they play a super fast PACE, and they have not a single soul that can follow James around. Beal's too small, and everyone else is too slow. LeBron's been a steady source of low 40s fantasy points recently, and I think he'll top 50 here.

Robert Covington - FD 6400 DK 6700
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 30.27 DK Proj. Pts - 33.27
Covington's price has shot through the stratosphere recently, and it's not hard to figure out way. He's averaged seven steals in his last 3 games. You read that correctly. What the hell? How can a man get 21 steals in 3 NBA games? It's beyond me. Anyway, Covington has been playing 37 minutes a night for the 76ers, and in a game where they should have a legit chance at their first win, I expect he'll play at least that many tonight. The Lakers have slowed their PACE down recently, but have still allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. I'll play Covington, price increase or no.

Tobias Harris - FD 6700 DK 6200
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 28.71 DK Proj. Pts - 30.2
We have you Harris against the Celtics, and he did essentially what we figured he'd do. He put up about 5x points per dollar, and better than a fantasy point a minute against a team without a great guy to cover him. This isn't an especially great match-up for Harris - the Wolves don't play fast, and they defend the 3 pretty well. To be honest, this is more of a DraftKings play from where's I'm sitting, juts because I like Covington better than him straight up for the price on FanDuel. Still, not a lot of people will play him, and he should have plenty of upside here.

Also considered: TJ Warren has been playing high 20s minutes, and producing well on them. He's also a back-up, and you just can't trust a back-up. Still, an interesting big tournament play.

A great punt is probably Jared Dudley. He's just playing 30 minutes right now, and I don't see any reason why that should change here. Our projection system would have you believe you should play him everywhere, but I might be a little less enthused.

POWER FORWARD

Thaddeus Young - FD 6700 DK 7100
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 32.87 DK Proj. Pts - 34.17
The most consistent guy on a points per dollar basis at the power forward position recently. I've written this every time I've written him up (which has been every game recently), but Young truly is a different player as the Nets are using him. He's getting more looks near the basket (and is thus shooting a higher percentage), and he's getting more rebounds as a result of being down there as well. The Suns play the very fastest PACE in the league, and more possessions will mean more production here. I love Young everywhere.

Kevin Love - FD 8300 DK 8600
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 38.44 DK Proj. Pts - 41.49
The biggish money high floor guy at the power forward position tonight. Love has one game with less than 36 fantasy points in his last 8, and he scored 32 in that game. He's fixed into a role on this Cleveland team right now - playing 36 minutes, and getting the exact same kinds of look regardless of the opposing team. The Wiz have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season, and again, they play super fast. I'd be happy with Love anywhere, though it's hard to imagine him having 6x+ points per dollar upside here.

Jerami Grant - FD 4800 DK 4700
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 22.45 DK Proj. Pts - 23.82
In Grant you're getting a guy who's on the rise, such as that looks on the 76ers. He's playing 30 minutes a game, shooting more frequently, shooting more accurately, and getting to the boards more regularly. He's still not a tremendous player. His field goal percentage is still kinda garbage, and he kind of needs the right match-up to pay off, even at these prices. Still, the Lakers could very well be just that, and it's a very tough night at the position.

Also considered: Ryan Anderson - but can you trust the minutes? He can really put up numbers in big minutes sometimes, and he can completely disappear as well.
 

CENTER

Brook Lopez - FD 8400 DK 7400
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 35.91 DK Proj. Pts - 36.42
Lopez has been a man on a mission recently, averaging better than 5x points per minute on these prices (and he's particularly ridiculous priced on DraftKings). And aside from an absurd defensive eruption in his last game which we definitely can't count on, he's mostly been getting by with a steady diet of points heavy double doubles. Chandler's a tough defender, but again, the Suns play fast enough that Lopez should be able to get his. Terrific 50/50 and double up play.

Jahlil Okafor - FD 6400 DK 6600
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 32.89 DK Proj. Pts - 33.34
When he's not busy punching people in the face outside of night clubs, Jahlil Okafor is a pretty good young offensive player. He's still shooting the 2nd most shots per minute at the position this season, and is still very affordable for what he can do on the offensive end and on the boards. The Lakers have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing centers this season, and the lumbering Hibbert really isn't equipped to chase Okafor out into his midrange game. This has all the makings of a huge game where he gets things right again.

Also considered: Marc Gasol. So many minutes.

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