Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 11/30/15

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POINT GUARD

Rajon Rondo - FD 8300 DK 9000
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 40.69 DK Proj. Pts - 41.47
The minutes weren't there against the Warriors because no team's starters ever get their minutes against the Warriors. Because said teams are typically getting crushed. Expect to see Rondo back up there logging run against the Mavericks tonight. Even with Collison back the Kings are devoid of many ballhandlers and need Rondo out there for extended stretches. I think I'd prefer Rondo more if Cousins were back in the lineup simply because he makes the Kings a much better team and Rondo can run the pick and roll to death with Boogie. But I'll take Rajon either way because few other players have his kind of minutes upside.

Isaiah Thomas - FD 7300 DK 7600
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 34.09 DK Proj. Pts - 36.01
With Marcus Smart out, Thomas has taken over the point guard duties with the first unit and is playing minutes when the game stays close. I can't imagine either team running away with this one. And though the Heat area a slower team who defend the point guard well, the price for Thomas simply hasn't risen much because the Celts have been in some lopsided games. That's buzzed off his minutes. It shouldn't happen here and I expect a solid performance.

Russell Westbrook - FD 11000 DK 10600
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 50.02 DK Proj. Pts - 51.54
To say he laid an egg the other night (as compared to his typical performance) is an insult to really productive egg-laying animals everywhere (perfect comparison). Westbrook double-doubled with a 14/11 (turnovers) line that you simply won't see from him, well really ever. While having Durant back for sure cuts into Westbrook's overall usage, we don't need to see them on the court as mutually exclusive fantasy upside ideas. They are more than capable inhabiting the same fantasy space and I think this game is a good place to get money in on Russell. That he's coming off the bad game has me liking him even more in tournaments as some will be scared off by the most recent game log. That's silly and if you can save elsewhere, he makes a safer high floor guy at these prices.

SHOOTING GUARD

Will Barton - FD 5300 DK 5800
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 22.56 DK Proj. Pts - 23.32
I like Barton a lot more if Gary Harris is out with the concussion again because I think the minutes will be a lot safer. That being said, Barton is one of the few bench guys you can consider on a nightly basis. He is a scoring machine off the bench and can get his own shot. The price is getting pretty close to the breaking point and on DraftKings it's probably already there. But Barton is one of those lightening in a bottle dudes that gets in there like he's shot out of a cannon. Again, if the Nuggets are shorthanded in the backcourt then this looks real good.

Gerald Green - FD 3700 DK 4000
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 18.41 DK Proj. Pts - 21.53
Luol Deng is going to sit again in this game, leaving the starting slot and the minutes open for Green. The good news on Gerald is he's coming very cheap and should see at least 25+ minutes. There could be even more run for him. And at essentially the minimums you aren't taking a big risk on the guy. The problem with Green is that he is almost solely scoring dependent for his production and if the shot isn't falling then he'll drive you totally crazy. Like I said, I think the risk is more than worth it considering he should be in the starting five and if he comes out of the gate hot then the minutes will really be there. But prepare yourself to get frustrated. That's just what kind of player he is.

Kyle Korver - FD 4500 DK 4400
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 20.52 DK Proj. Pts - 24
I really don't mind him as a cheaper cash game play. The game will be high scoring, Korver plays his minutes in closer affairs and OKC is one of the worst teams in the league at defending the opposing two. He has a higher floor if the game stays close.

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SMALL FORWARD

Kevin Durant - FD 10500 DK 9900
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 41.61 DK Proj. Pts - 43.94
Well he's back to full form huh? Durant has logged 38 and 37 minutes respectively in the last two games while averaging 32/9/5 in those games. The price hasn't fully adjusted for him considering he's spent so much time on the shelf. But in what should be about the highest scoring game of the night, Durant makes a very high floor cash game with supreme upside if he really starts lighting it up. There's even some possibility of playing both he and Westbrook together if enough quality punts surface between now and lineup lock. That's probably asking a lot, but big slates tend to provide cheaper value in more supply. Durant will likely be a huge cash game start on both sites and he's pretty much a must on DraftKings.

Marcus Morris - FD 5900 DK 5700
Opponent - HOU FD Proj. Pts - 28.32 DK Proj. Pts - 30.76
The Rockets are among the worst teams in the league defending the opposing small forward, though I should say that Morris does mix and match his role with the Pistons. Don't worry about it though because the Rockets are just as bad against the power forward. So I think you are good either way. Morris is a minutes hound which is good because he needs every single one of them to really hit value. He's getting off double digit shots per game and chips in with rebounds as well. The problem with Morris is he doesn't do much else which is why he needs all the run possible. He should get it in this matchup

Justise Winslow - FD 3800 DK 4000
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 18.3 DK Proj. Pts - 19.68
He, along with Gerald Green, has been one of the beneficiaries of Luol Deng's injury. Winslow's been playing about thirty minutes a game in the last three. He's very much the opposite of Green though in that Winslow doesn't score but chips in across the the stat sheet. The lack of scoring though gives him the same kind of low floor problem as Green. But he's a cheap option who's seeing minutes.

POWER FORWARD

Blake Griffin - FD 9100 DK 9100
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 42.35 DK Proj. Pts - 42.95
He's a fantastic price on both sites and will be really hard to pass up on in cash games considering the nature of the slate. Griffin is coming as the ninth most expensive player on FanDuel which seems crazy though I understand why. It's been a consistency issue for Blake who has had both superstar performances as well as completely underwhelming affairs against what should have been solid opponents. The Blazers haven't been pushovers against opposing big men, but the price on Blake is simply too low. The per minute stats are better than last season and he's got crazy high upside for this price tier.

Jared Sullinger - FD 6100 DK 6400
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 30.02 DK Proj. Pts - 31.58
As we always say with Sullinger, it's a minutes thing. When he's out there, dude pours it on. Though last night was a struggle, I'm still all right with playing him because the rest of the position is very thin barring some injury news opening things up a bit. The Heat are somewhere in the average range in guarding opposing big men and Sullinger definitely causes some matchup issues because he stretches the court some. Miami doesn't have a guy with this kind of defensive make up and I think Sullinger takes advantage. The Heat pace hurts the overall volume, but this is a good spot at a weaker power forward player pool.

Darrell Arthur - FD 3900 DK 4300
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 17.34 DK Proj. Pts - 18.32
Even with Kenneth Faried back, Arthur still saw minutes in the thirties. That's a great sign for a guy at punt prices. The problem is that the Denver big men minutes are the very opposite of safe and if Arthur all of a sudden went out there with 15 minutes of run I wouldn't be shocked. If he's in the starting lineup again, I think you can take the risk. But check news on the Nuggets' starting five prior to lineup lock.

If you want to read more about DFS strategy check out TheSportsGeek.com's DFS strategy articles.

CENTER

DeMarcus Cousins - FD 10600 DK 10600
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 50.32 DK Proj. Pts - 50.95
Kosta Koufos - FD 4500 DK 5200
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 25.21 DK Proj. Pts - 25.63
I putting them together, not because I think you should play them together, but because this is an either/or situation. I'm not positive we will have solid Boogie injury news before the early lineup lock, but on the off chance that it happens you can go either way here. Both make great plays relative to their prices against the Mavericks. Dallas is a good team against opposing centers but neither of these guys' salaries are anywhere close to correct assuming they are in the starting lineup. If Cousins is playing it's because I assume he has a clean bill of health. And if he sits, then Koufos has been amazing at his salaries. Keep an eye on this situation and hopefully we know something.

Al Horford - FD 6900 DK 6400
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 31.71 DK Proj. Pts - 32.27
He's not a guy I've written too much about this season mostly because his performance has been all over the place. He's shooting a ton more three pointers this season which may or may not be better for his game. To put it this way, up until this season he was averaging about 0.2 threes per game and this year he's putting up more than three a game. He hasn't been bad from down town and it's an interesting trend. But playing this far from the basket has taken a hit on his rebounding which has dropped considerably. If he gets full run against OKC in what should be a high scoring game then I think he hits value. But this is definitely a new (though not necessarily improved) Horford.

Greg Monroe - FD 7500 DK 6900
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 33.05 DK Proj. Pts - 33.54
Personally, I've done a good job of playing him at all the wrong times but it doesn't dissuade me from running him out there against a Nuggets team ranked among the worst in the league against opposing centers. This should be a high scoring game and Monroe's price has stagnated because of some up and down performances.

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