Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 11/28/15

Happy Sunday! The world will be sweating the NFL today, but the basketball die hards (and those who are tilting and trying to chase their NFL losses) will be going at it strong. As always, DFSR will be here providing the picks you need the moment you need 'em.

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POINT GUARD

Isaiah Canaan - FD 4300 DK 4300
Opponent - MEM FD Proj. Pts - 21.39 DK Proj. Pts - 25.15
D'Angelo Russell - FD 5100 DK 4900
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 26.56 DK Proj. Pts - 28.39
These guys have a similar story to tell - young PGs with volatile skill sets who have seen a recent increase in minutes without the commensurate increase in prices just yet. Russell took a bath when the Lakers got blown out by the Warriors, but Canaan has no similar black marks on his track record. I frankly think you can make a case for going double cheap at point guard tonight. I like Canaan dramatically better for a couple of reasons. First, he's just cheaper, raising his points per dollar floor since they are similar talents. Next, he has a much better match-up with the Grizzlies. They've allowed the 12th most fantasy points to opposing point guards, as opposed to the Pacers, who have allowed the 4th fewest. Still, I actually like both quite a bit, and would be fine with either in any format.

Kyle Lowry - FD 8600 DK 8500
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 39.34 DK Proj. Pts - 41.78
If you do decide to pay up a bit at the position today, I'm a big fan of Kyle Lowry. I wrote him up against the Wiz last night, and a lot of that holds true tonight as well. Here's my take:

My man is locked into a 37 minute rotation, and he's been producing. He's scored at least 36 fantasy points in each of his last 10 games, and it sure looks like this is who he is now. The only thing that's changed about Lowry this season from last is that he's shooting 40% from 3, and even if that's a little higher than you'd expect, he's had seasons in the high 37% range in the past, making this well within the realm of plausibility.

So, what's changed tonight? He's got a WAY better match-up. The Suns have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing point guards, and has played the fastest PACE in the league. Lowry's a great bet tonight, especially if you're a little spooked by D'Angelo Russell.

Isaiah Thomas - FD 7300 DK 7500
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 35.42 DK Proj. Pts - 37.71
After the above guys, things fall off pretty steeply. Still, Thomas isn't a terrible option if you're looking high floor and potentially high ceiling as well. He's shot 21 times in each of his last two games, and a normal game script probably has him shooting more than his 16.9 shots per game average this season. The Magic represent essentially a league average match-up, so this is just a math problem. He's averaged 33 fantasy points on 30 minutes this season, and he's playing about 10% more than that in close games. I'm talking myself into Thomas in cash games more and more!

SHOOTING GUARD

James Harden - FD 10700 DK 10200
Opponent - NYK FD Proj. Pts - 46.05 DK Proj. Pts - 48.83
It's hard to imagine him doing a lot more than he's done recently, the Rockets could run the Knicks off the floor here. Still, though - Harden crushed the Knicks in their last match-up (54 fantasy points), and has averaged 57 FanDuel points per game in his last 3 games. With McHale gone, the offensive plan in Houston seems to be "run 10 seconds off the shot clock, give it to Harden, and let him go ISO against somebody." You know enough about Harden to make this decision for yourself, but I do think he'll be a fine play in any format if you can find some good punts elsewhere (or if you go double cheap at point guard, as recommended!).

Avery Bradley - FD 6200 DK 6400
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 28.26 DK Proj. Pts - 30.3
If you're looking for a good 50/50 and double up play, Avery Bradley has turned into a pretty consistent source of fantasy production. Bradley is shooting 7% more shots per minute this season, playing more minutes than he did last year, shooting the second best FG% of his career, and shooting the most 3s of his career as well. Oladipo and the Magic are a below league average match-up, but until Bradley's price catches up to his current opportunity and production, he still looks like a pretty safe play.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - FD 4800 DK 4700
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 21.69 DK Proj. Pts - 24.13
Some low totals recently have people off the KCP bandwagon, but there's a lot to still like here. He's shot 15 times in each of his last two games, but only paid 4.5x points per dollar in one of those. When you combine minutes and shots, it's tough to be less than a $5k player on FanDuel and DraftKings. Joe Johnson and the Nets have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season, and while KCP isn't a classic offensive threat, he can get going against a lazy defender. On a cheap price, it's a nice high floor way to get away from a tough position.

Strongly consider Eric Bledsoe, though I'm a little gunshy in a tough match-up with DeMar DeRozan. Still, our projection system thinks he's a great value here, and I wouldn't be surprised if he came out in optimal lineups for us today.

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SMALL FORWARD

Paul George - FD 9900 DK 10100
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 44.11 DK Proj. Pts - 46.91
We at DFSR have been saying that George is back to his 2013-2014 form, but frankly, we were underselling things. George is now shooting 2 more shots per game, shooting 3% better from the field, taking more 3s, shooting better from three (though that might be unsustainable), and setting career highs for assists and rebounds as well. In short, he's a freaking stud, and a play on basically any night unless he has a brutal match-up. The Lakers have actually allowed less fantasy points to small forwards than other positions, but they've still allowed the 10th most on the season. And, frankly, after playing Paul George, that number could climb dramatically here.

Marcus Morris - FD 5900 DK 5700
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 27.16 DK Proj. Pts - 29.28
Morris hasn't been lighting the world on fire recently, but there's some weirdness that can explain that away. He's bizarrely on back to back games without a single assist, after being good for 2 a game for the season prior to that. His rebounds were down a little as well, and he shot below his career levels as well. The fact is, Morris is still playing a huge amount of minutes (40 in his last game), and the Nets have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. I suspect a nice bounceback game for Morris here, and think the numbers projected above to be his floor.

Tobias Harris - FD 6600 DK 6100
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 31.47 DK Proj. Pts - 33.31
Harris' shots are down this season, but his rebounds are up, and he seems to be gaining Scott Skiles' trust if his minutes in his last 10 games are any indication. He actually has a very nice match-up here as well. Under Brad Stevens, the Celtics have played the 4th fastest PACE in the league, which has caused them to give up a lot of big fantasy totals. Jae Crowder is a pretty good defender, but he's likely a little undersized for what Harris does best. Harris might put the points and rebounds together at some point soon, and this game could very well be it.

Also considered: Jeff Green, as an interesting cheap option.

POWER FORWARD

Thaddeus Young - FD 6400 DK 6900
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 30.5 DK Proj. Pts - 31.53
Big, bad, Thad. Young is shooting the 2nd most shots per game of his career, at the 2nd highest percentage from the field. A fine combo. He's also getting way more rebounds than he ever has, primarily because of how the Nets deploy him on both sides of the ball. All this to say - I think Young's production is sustainable. If that's the case, he's simply worth a 10% higher price. So why hasn't Young's price caught up? I... don't know. He's averaged nearly 5x points per dollar on these prices. Yeah, I don't get it. Anyway, tonight he'll be up against the Pistons, who have actually been very tough on opposing big men this season. They play slow, and they defend pretty well. Still, Ersan Ilyasova is a dark spot in that defense, and Young can play far enough from the rim to avoid the Wrath of Drummond. I like Young everywhere, especially with plenty of uncertainty at the position today.

Kristaps Porzingis - FD 7000 DK 7500
Opponent - HOU FD Proj. Pts - 38.1 DK Proj. Pts - 39.57
You don't love the random minutes reduction for the Zinger in his last game, but he was locked into 36 minutes in his previous three games, and that's what we're projecting him for here. I imagine he'll be a monster start here, as his decimation of the Rockets will still be fresh in many daily fantasy basketball players' minds tonight. In case you missed it, Porzingis went off for 24/14/2 with SEVEN blocks. Rockets drive the lane, Rockets get blocked. It was a work of art. Now, you can't pencil him in for 50+ fantasy points tonight, but especially on FanDuel, Kristaps looks like an incredible value.

Jared Sullinger - FD 6100 DK 6400
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 29.54 DK Proj. Pts - 31.03
What to make of Jared Sullinger? My man put up 42 fantasy points his last time out, but somehow only played 24 minutes. Brad Stevens is going to drive the whole daily fantasy basketball industry crazy, here. Sullinger is quite simply a better player this year - crashing the boards far more effectively, and shooting better from the field. If he played 35 minutes a game, he'd be a $8,500 player. But his minutes are unpredictable, so every time you play him feels like a gamble. Meanwhile, the Magic defend the 5 worse than they defend other spots on the court - they've allowed the 12th most fantasy points to opposing centers (where Sullinger actually plays) this season. Is he safe enough to trot out in a 50/50? That's anybody's guess, but our projection system is in love here.

An interesting cheap option: Markieff Morris. Still shooting a ton of shots, and will have a great spot against the banged up front court of Toronto. He's always a minutes risk, but in a big tournament? I'm intrigued.

Early slate pay-up guy: Blake against the Wolves.

 

CENTER

Andre Drummond - FD 9300 DK 8900
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 43.93 DK Proj. Pts - 44.79
Just when you think you can close the door on anyone being able to be a 20 rebounds a game guy, Drummond will go out and do something ridiculous to somebody. Still, Drummond probably isn't a 20 rebound player - but he really doesn't need to be to justify these prices. Drummond has been shooting more recently (17 shots a game in his last 2), and is probably a safe bet for mid-high teens in rebounds any time he takes the floor. Today he'll also have a spectacular mismatch of a match-up. Brook Lopez has always been an offense first guy, and the Nets have managed to allow the 5th most points to opposing centers this season in spite of playing the 10th slowest PACE in the league. That's really something, quite frankly. Drummond looks wildly safe to me, with upside for one of those 20/20 style games.

Bismack Biyombo - FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 11.7 DK Proj. Pts - 11.95
As of this writing, Biyombo has a simply incredible line. He's put up 30.2 fantasy points on FanDuel without scoring a single point. 16 boards and 5 defensive stats will do that for you! Biyombo remains basically free (especially on FanDuel), and is probably a must start there. Phoenix's fast pace only makes matters better for him, but this is more a case of the price just being miles away from his present situation.

Jahlil Okafor - FD 6500 DK 6700
Opponent - MEM FD Proj. Pts - 30.39 DK Proj. Pts - 30.8
Okafor might be more of an off-board play at this point in the season, but I swear the guy is going to put up a monster when everything clicks again. Okafor got disciplined internally (hence the reduced minutes against the Rockets), but should be back to his full run in a tough match-up against the Grizzlies today. Let's get one thing straight - this is not a 50/50 play. But don't be surprised if Okafor goes out there and shoots 20 shots and puts up a bunch of stats around that. He shoots as much as any non-Cousins center, and the price still hasn't quite caught up. On a night where tons of people will play the above guys, you can get some real separation at a potentially nice value here.

So yeah, basketball season! And we've got some goodies you can take with you. At the end of the post, we have our NBA eBook that you really ought to check out before setting even a single daily fantasy NBA lineup. It's free, below.

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