Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 11/28/15

Happy Turkey Day! I missed you guys, what with Lucky Doug getting to write all the picks recently. Still, we've got eyes on the prizes for Saturday, and I'm feeling really good about how these picks are coming together. Let's do this!

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POINT GUARD

Damian Lillard - FD 9400 DK 9100
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 39.52 DK Proj. Pts - 42.6
I went back and forth between Lillard and Steph for my "expensive point guard" recommendation, but ultimately landed on Lillard for a few reasons. First of all, the way the Dubs are going, Curry is a blowout risk in any contest. Next, the Lakers have been the very worst team in the league when it comes to defending opposing point guards, allowing the most fantasy points to opposing PGs in the NBA. And last, we know that Lillard can crush in this exact match-up, as he put up one of the best non-Westbrook performances out of the PG position in their last meeting, putting up 65 fantasy points on a ridiculous 30/13/6 line.

D'Angelo Russell - FD 5100 DK 4800
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 27.3 DK Proj. Pts - 29.31
If you want a cheaper, but perhaps volatile option, I'm taking a hard look at D'Angelo Russell. Before the predictable loss of minutes that came against the Warriors, Russell had played 34 and 36 minutes in his previous two games, and averaged 31 DraftKings fantasy points in them. One of those games happened to be against Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers, the very same match-up he'll have here. I actually think Russell is one of the very safest options at these price points, if the minutes jump is for real. Love him in all formats.

Kyle Lowry - FD 8800 DK 8500
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 37.39 DK Proj. Pts - 39.38
Disclaimy time - I like the above guys considerably better, but if you're looking for a nice high floor? Why not Kyle Lowry? My man is locked into a 37 minute rotation, and he's been producing. He's scored at least 36 fantasy points in each of his last 10 games, and it sure looks like this is who he is now. The only thing that's changed about Lowry this season from last is that he's shooting 40% from 3, and even if that's a little higher than you'd expect, he's had seasons in the high 37% range in the past, making this well within the realm of plausibility. The Wiz are a pretty tough match-up for opposing PGs, but in what should be a close game, I expect Lowry will get his full minutes and his full allotment of shots, which is more than you can say for Lillard and Curry and their lopsided match-ups.

A huge upside play: Rajon Rondo. He put up a bizarre 14/12/15 with 4 steals line the last time the Kings faced the Warriors, but can you count on the minutes? Oy. Big tourney play only.

Keep an eye on Mo Williams' minutes. I'm writing this before the Cavs have finished their Friday night game (what with Thanksgiving and all), and his value changes quite a bit if he's going to play 31 or 36 minutes. If his minutes head back to the mid 30s, he's a phenomenal play.

SHOOTING GUARD

DeMar DeRozan - FD 7500 DK 7000
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 31.57 DK Proj. Pts - 32.47
DeRozan is a much better price on DraftKings, but our system can tolerate him on FanDuel as well. The reason is simple - like Lowry, he's playing ridiculous minutes. A week of cold shooting has DeRozan too cheap for what he can do on these prices. He's shooting just 1 less shot per game than he did last year when he was an easy $8,000 player, and I don't see any indication that he should be anything else in 2015. Again, the Wizards aren't a great match-up for opposing back court players, but DeRozan should be a match-up independent high floor play on these prices and these minutes.

Klay Thompson - FD 6300 DK 6300
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 29.66 DK Proj. Pts - 33.69
Klay has been pretty volatile this season, but the pricing hate has gone just a bit too far. I can't recommend him without qualification for 50/50s and double-ups, simply because of how his rotations shake out. He sits early in the 3rd and starts the 4th in close games, and this one absolutely has a chance to be something other than close. Now, our projection system is accounting for the fact that Klay is shooting less often this season, but it thinks the lowered FG% and three point % is just an aberration. With Curry creating this much space, there's no reason Thompson should be shooting 4% worse from the 2 and from 3. The Kings have given up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season. Klay's a huge upside play here, and could quite possibly pay his price even if he doesn't hit his projected minutes.

Gary Harris - FD 4100 DK 4100
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 20.97 DK Proj. Pts - 22.38
Oof, it's a pretty lousy day for shooting guards. On bad days at a position, it often makes sense to just try and escape it cheaply. Today, Harris is your best bet to do so at the shooting guard position. The Mavs have allowed the 12th most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards, and Harris has played 34 and 35 minutes in his last two games. Harris is a weird player. He doesn't really create his own shot, but he's shooting 50% from the field and 44% from three, and while he doesn't do much besides score, he scores plenty for these prices when he plays mid thirties minutes. I kind of love him in all formats, to be real with you.

Consider on DraftKings - Wes Matthews. He's super cheap, and has been paying basically 6x on these prices in low 30s minutes. He's clearly missing a step as he tries to recover from ACL surgery, but even this current incarnation of Matthews is worth the reduced prices.

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SMALL FORWARD

LeBron James - FD 10100 DK 9600
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 45.21 DK Proj. Pts - 47.05
My favorite elite play of the day, at least from an upside perspective. There's definitely a chance the Cavs run Brooklyn out of the gym, and James would probably lose minutes in that instance. But frankly, he might not need all of his minutes to put up 4.5x+ points per dollar here. The Nets have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season, but what's more, they just don't have a guy who can keep pace with LeBron. Neither Thad Young, Jefferson, nor Bogdanovic are athletic enough to keep pace, and LeBron should get all the points he wants here.

Danilo Gallinari - FD 7200 DK 6800
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 30.31 DK Proj. Pts - 32.78
Gallo is rounding out into the Nuggets #1 option, and while that might be damning with faint praise, it's manifested itself as real fantasy production recently. What's more, all of this looks like exactly who Gallinari was going to be all along. His per minute stats have all gotten a little bit better, but the biggest difference is that he's now playing 34+ minutes per game instead of the 24 he played last season. He's also been seriously crashing the boards recently, averaging 10 rebounds per game in his last 5 contests. Dallas has played the 11th fastest PACE in the NBA this season, which bodes well for Gallinari to to have a few extra possessions to raise his floor a bit.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson - FD 4200 DK 4400
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 20.06 DK Proj. Pts - 20.56
He's cheap, and the points per dollar ceiling and floor are both tremendous here. The Nets have been showing him more and more trust recently, and it's turned into more than adequate production for these prices. He's been playing low 30s minutes when things break right, and combining a great instinct for both rebounds and steals to make up for his lack of offensive game. I don't want to overstate what Hollis-Jefferson is as a player, just yet - he might not be a guy who can stick in the NBA if he can't do anything on the offensive side, but on these prices he's criminally undervalued as a fantasy asset.

DeMarre Carroll - FD 6000 DK 5700
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 24.26 DK Proj. Pts - 26.71
Just a cheaper, high floor option if you can't spend up on the above guys. Like the other two Raps above, Carroll has been playing truly absurd minutes, and there's no reason to think that won't continue in this game with the Wizards. You can't play him in a big tournament because he's almost without upside, but he's still not priced like a guy who's going to spend the whole game on the court. Unlike Lowry and DeRozan, Carroll actually has a great match-up here. The Wizards have allowed the very most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season, and while Carroll doesn't really create his own shot, he should be open a lot with the less than interested Otto Porter chasing him around.

POWER FORWARD

Ryan Anderson - FD 6700 DK 6500
Opponent - UTA FD Proj. Pts - 29.41 DK Proj. Pts - 32.06
With Davis logging big minutes at the 5, Anderson has been playing bunches of minutes, albeit at a lower usage than when he's playing in Davis' absence. Still, mid-thirties minutes from a guy with Anderson's stroke has serious fantasy upside at prices in the mid $6,000s. While the Jazz typically represent an awful match-up for opposing fantasy players due to the fact that they play the NBA's slowest PACE, they've allowed nearly a league average amount of fantasy points to opposing power forwards. Anderson is also an atypical match-up for opposing 4s, and I wouldn't be surprised if Favors lost track of him a few times early on while he got to adjusting. I like Anderson in all formats.

Tristan Thompson - FD 5800 DK 6200
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 29.69 DK Proj. Pts - 30.33
A cheaper, and arguably higher floor option than Anderson. Thompson has been logging big minutes while the Cavs experiment with him at the 5, and while it's meant fewer shots than he's used to, the extra minutes have him piling up the boards and blocks. He's averaged 14 rebounds a game in his 3 games as a starter recently, and he should do fantastically against Brook Lopez and the Nets, who have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.

Derrick Favors - FD 8000 DK 7100
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 37.69 DK Proj. Pts - 38.2
A fantastic play on DraftKings due to the deep discount, but a little riskier on FanDuel. The Pelicans, in spite of having Anthony Davis down low, play fast enough (the league's 8th fastest PACE) that they've allowed a league average amount of fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. We might really hit a home run here, too, if Davis continues to play the 5, and Favors will be tracked by Ryan Anderson. Favors has made modest improvements to his game this season that haven't been detected by most. He's getting better shots, and making more of them, as evidenced by his career best 54.5% field goal percentage. He's also putting in more work on the defensive end, and he's averaged a career best 2 steals per game as well. I'm definitely a buyer while the prices are this low on DK.

Patrick Patterson - FD 3500 DK 3500
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 17.45 DK Proj. Pts - 19.65
Luis Scola - FD 4700 DK 5100
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 27.27 DK Proj. Pts - 27.7
With Valancunias out with a fractured hand, both of these guys make fine punt plays. Scola looks like the considerably safer option simply due to playing more minutes and being more involved offensively, but it's hard to beat Pat-Pat's price. Not much analysis needed, here - their prices just don't reflect current opportunity.

CENTER

Mason Plumlee - FD 6200 DK 6000
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 28.88 DK Proj. Pts - 29.32
Plumlee is partying like it's that one streak where he was really awesome for a little while last season, and it's kind of freaking me out. He's had 4 fantasy games in a row where he's played 5x points per dollar on these prices, and 3 of those games were against Dwight Howard< DeAndre Jordan, and Joakim Noah. And, best of all, one of those games was against Roy Hibbert and these very same Lakers! That was also his best game - a 17/11/4 fantasy shellacking that would have been a part of winning tournament lineups if you fit the other pieces in around him properly. Me? I love Plumlee everywhere against the Lake-show and their league worst Center defense. Nikola Jokic - FD 4400 DK 4900
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 24.1 DK Proj. Pts - 24.79
With 3 great games on these prices in his last 4, Jokic is winning the hearts of the Denver coaching staff and daily fantasy basketball players as well. Jokic is something different than the typical big man who's filling in for someone who's currently out in a couple of ways. First of all, he's got some real offensive game. He put 13 shots in the air against Tim Duncan and DeAndre Jordan - something not a lot of back up 5s can do. He also does the other things pretty well, too - rebounding the position well and even showing signs of being a respectable passer. He'll have a pretty tough match-up with Zaza Pachulia, but this is yet another case of opportunity not yet syncing up with pricing.

Zaza Pachulia - FD 5800 DK 5600
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 27.13 DK Proj. Pts - 27.61
Zaza was on a streak of 4 consecutive games with 32 fantasy points or more before early foul trouble buried his streak against the Spurs. When the minutes are there, Zaza is a lock for a double double with some upside if he lines up a few assists and defensive stats as well. The Nuggets have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing centers this season, making Pachulia a very interesting off-board play in big tournaments.

A cash game play: Rudy Gobert. It can feel weird to recommend a guy who frequently shoots just 4 shots in a game, but Gobert is so active on the boards and in the paint that he's had a pretty great track record on these prices - especially on DraftKings. On DK, he's put up 5x+ points per game in 5 of his last 10, and 6x+ points per game in 3 of his last 10. He also had two stinkers. Still, he'll be up against Anthony Davis here, who isn't quite a center, and should have a good chance to put up some nice rebound numbers against the Pels now slightly small front court. I don't know that he has massive upside here, and I don't know that I'd play him on FanDuel, but he looks like a play on DraftKings for sure.

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