Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 11/27/15

Here's to hoping everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving and didn't collapse into themselves like a dying star because there was no NBA. But not to worry, it's back for a packed Friday. Completely full slate and a lot to break down.

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POINT GUARD

Russell Westbrook - FD 11600 DK 11100
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 51.69 DK Proj. Pts - 53.42
The tough thing about Westbrook is the price. But the other tough thing is rooting against him on any given night. Those two thoughts meet somewhere in the middle here. I understand that with Durant back, Westbrook's usage takes a dip as he's rocking a 42 usage with Durant off the floor, 33 with KD on. But that latter number still leads the team and Westbrook showcased against Brooklyn how he and Durant's big games aren't mutually exclusive. Detroit is league average defending opposing point guards so I don't expect a shut down performance. With big slates like this, there are typically enough punt plays to not sweat getting Russell into lineups.

Rajon Rondo - FD 8400 DK 9300
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 42.68 DK Proj. Pts - 43.56
Minutes, minutes and more minutes. Rondo has been an iron man for the Kings this season, playing about 40 or more minutes in nine of the last ten games. No other player in the NBA gets this kind of run, and there's little reason to believe it somehow abates in the short term. The Kings need him out there. He's benefited from having Boogie for sure, but can still put up numbers when the big guy is off the court. The T-Wolves play at a fast pace and allow tons of points to opposing point guards. Rondo is a top play for any price tier.

Ricky Rubio - FD 7100 DK 6900
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 32.69 DK Proj. Pts - 33.66
Opposing Rondo will be Rubio who stands to see a quality line in this one. The Kings are playing at the fastest pace in the league this season and that kind of volume really translates going the other way. Rubio will be able to push the ball and this will be a high scoring affair. Assuming he's healthy, I like the prices on him, though the one thing that concerns me is his lack of scoring. If Rubio can't go, Zach Lavine becomes real enticing at reduced costs.

Strongly consider Isaiah Thomas

SHOOTING GUARD

Avery Bradley - FD 6200 DK 6400
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 27.67 DK Proj. Pts - 29.53
Shooting guard is real gross on this slate. I'm tempted to go as cheap as possible and allocate dollars elsewhere. But Bradley is one of those mid range guys who could outstrip his salaries in this matchup. The game will be played at a breakneck pace with Washington and Boston ranked as the third and fifth fastest teams in the league respectively. Bradley's seen a big minutes' bump since Marcus Smart went down and is one of the few Celtics whose minutes aren't totally worrisome. Bradley is score-first which makes him a bit susceptible to lower scores if the shot isn't falling. But that's built somewhat into his price.

Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 7000 DK 6900
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 31.13 DK Proj. Pts - 32.18
Another mid range salary guy with big upside. Giannis is a little different than most other shooting guard-eligible players (SF on DK) because he doesn't need to primarily score in order to hit value. He's averaging a healthy 18/7/3 line with some blocks and steals thrown in there. That provides him a solid floor on a nightly basis, though the minutes have been a bit all over the place of late. That's an issue team-wide with the Bucks when Jason Kidd switches around rotations. This is a slight overpay for Giannis, but the position is real thin.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - FD 4800 DK 4800
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 21.88 DK Proj. Pts - 24.4
He has high minutes' upside, but a lower ceiling. KCP grabs almost all of the two guard minutes for the Pistons, but he's down the list for them in terms of offensive options. And if he isn't scoring then you aren't getting much from the guy. Needs to bang home a few threes to see any kind of upside, but this game should be high-scoring and I suspect he's out there for a full run.

Strongly consider Gerald Green if Luol Deng were to sit again

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SMALL FORWARD

Jae Crowder - FD 4900 DK 5700
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 24.36 DK Proj. Pts - 25.94
You're seeing a lot of Celtics in the picks tonight because the matchup against Washington leaves a lot of room for scoring. But they almost all come with the caveat that you could watch the guys in green sit for extended stretches. Crowder is in this camp (along with Sullinger below). Crowder has that built in to his price which has him coming real cheap on FanDuel (it's a little too steep on DraftKings). At less than 5K, I'm willing to take the risk because this is just the right kind of game for Crowder. It should be up and down the court and he can get out in transition. The Wiz are last in the league against opposing small forwards who've been able to score at will.

Harrison Barnes - FD 5300 DK 5700
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 24.86 DK Proj. Pts - 26.55
Marcus Morris - FD 5900 DK 6000
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 27.46 DK Proj. Pts - 29.66
There is a lot to like at the small forward today. I grouped these two together for simplicity's sake though the factors are a little different. Barnes has a high ceiling if the Suns can keep the game close as his minutes should be more than enough to hit value if he's playing the fourth. He's taken over more of the offensive load this season while also rebounding at a clip that gives him a high floor. Morris on the other hand has some more minutes safety, though possible not as high of a ceiling against Durant. That being said, I like both a lot in this price range. The small forward decisions on this slate will be tough (in a good way).

Otto Porter - FD 5700 DK 5800
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 27.34 DK Proj. Pts - 28.35
On the opposite side of Crowder, Porter has a great matchup who aren't much better at defending opposing threes. Porter's seen some of his minutes burned off in the last two games, though both of those affairs were getting out of hand near the end (and not in the Wizards' favor). I think he sees that run tick back up to the low 30's in this game against the Celtics. Porter isn't helped from a scoring perspective having Bradley Beal back in the lineup, but game flow should be fine for him here.

Thabo Sefolosha - FD 4300 DK 4500
Opponent - MEM FD Proj. Pts - 21.89 DK Proj. Pts - 23.01
If Bazemore sits out again and Thabo sticks in the starting five then I still like him at these prices which have climbed some thanks to higher ownership and a fantastic game against the Celtics.

If DeMarcus Cousins sits again then Rudy Gay jumps to the top of this list.

POWER FORWARD

Kristaps Porzingis - FD 7100 DK 7300
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 35.77 DK Proj. Pts - 37.03
Had a bunch of us sweating with his first-half performance against the Magic on Wednesday, but pulled it together with a big second half that about got him to value. Kristaps has made a more-than-compelling case for Derek Fisher to play him big minutes and he's capitalized. Zinger has a great floor because he's able to do just about everything on the court. He's even able to survive a poor shooting night night (like Wedensday) because his ability to rebound and block shots are already well above average. The minutes are the biggest piece of the puzzle for him and as long as he's out there for run in the mid 30's then he's a great cash game play against a Heat team that's below average defending the power forward.

Terrence Jones - FD 5700 DK 5900
Opponent - PHI FD Proj. Pts - 31.59 DK Proj. Pts - 32.4
He's a very speculative play because the Rockets are a total mess right now and it's hard to trust really anyone on their team. Jones was seeing playing (and under-performing) until he ran for only 19 minutes last game against the Grizzlies. Philly though is a cure for the under-performing blues as they rank last in the league in defending the opposing power forward. Jones doesn't have a ton of safety because he could cede his minutes to someone else, but he has crazy upside at these prices. I'm willing to take the risk on FanDuel especially because he could really pay.

Jared Sullinger - FD 5800 DK 6300
Opponent - WAS FD Proj. Pts - 31.55 DK Proj. Pts - 33.37
Another high ceiling, low floor play. Sullinger fills it up when he's on the court as he creates mismatches for many different teams. He can take the ball inside and out, creating real problems for most interior defenders at the perimeter, or size issues when teams go a little smaller on him. But he gets caught in the Boston rotation mess sometimes and will sit for long stretches depending on how Brad Stevens sees the game going. That makes him scary even if the opponent and potential game flow are choice.

Darrell Arthur - FD 3800 DK 4000
Opponent - SAS FD Proj. Pts - 21.56 DK Proj. Pts - 22.54
He is a great play if Kenneth Faried is out again. We will know more about this as we get closer to game time, but I'm not discouraged by the lower output from Arthur the other night against the Clippers. LA is one of the best teams in the league at defending the opposing power forward. The Kings exist on the opposite end of the spectrum.

CENTER

Nikola Jokic - FD 4400 DK 4600
Opponent - SAS FD Proj. Pts - 25.07 DK Proj. Pts - 25.79
He was a human foul machine the other night against the Clippers which cut short some of his run. But when he was out there, Jokic showed some real flashes. He's adept in the post and is able to create his own shot down there. The Nuggets could get crushed by the Spurs here, but I still think Jokic sees minutes in the mid 20's. That's really all he needs at these prices and he appears locked in to the starting center slot for Denver. On the off chance that he sees full run then he could really be one of the best point per dollars plays on the whole slate.

Greg Monroe - FD 7800 DK 7100
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 35.55 DK Proj. Pts - 36.06
I like the DraftKings price more than FanDuel, but he's in play on both sites. Orlando ranks in the bottom third of the league in defending opposing centers and Monroe should be able to get an offensive game going in the low post. Milwaukee has a lot of mouths to feed and get caught in rotations that buzz off some starter minutes. But he has a high floor most nights because he's virtually a guaranteed double-double. Monroe also chucks in enough steals and blocks to round out the stat line. He isn't a fantastic points/$ play, but the position is a little thin.

If Demarcus Cousins is given a clean bill of health then he automatically vaults to the top of the list.

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