The crowd cheers after Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) scored during the first half of Game 2 in a second-round NBA playoff basketball series against the Memphis Grizzlies, Tuesday, May 5, 2015, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
Happy Sunday, everyone! Assuming you're back home safely from church, why don't we dive into some NBA fun, shall we? Now, a lot of people don't play NBA on Sunday. Or at least, they plan not to. Then they see their early NFL lineups doing terribly. Then they dive right in, and run up against the buzz-saw that is you. Alternately - welcome to the NBA picks! Having trouble with your early NFL slate lineups?
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Stephen Curry - FD 11100 DK 10900
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 47.85 DK Proj. Pts - 52.09
What manner of absurd Steph stat do I need to share with you to persuade you to play him, here? How about this - Steph Curry has a PER of 34.26. The best ever full season number was Wilt Chamberlain's 31.87. Just sayin'. Steph is shooting 18% more shots per minute than he did last season, and making a higher percentage of them. Denver has given up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, and Mudiay's gambling style simply won't mesh well with Curry's present artistry. There's clear blowout risk here, but the upside here is positively undeniable.
Brandon Knight - FD 8000 DK 7900
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 34.37 DK Proj. Pts - 36.84
With two 61+ fantasy point games in his last 3 (!), Knight is doing his best Russell Westbrook impression. Lots of minutes, tons of shots, and some of the highest involvement in his offense that we've seen recently. What I particularly am keeping an eye on is those rebound totals. When guys like Knight (or Westbrook, or Rondo) are piling on the rebounds, you know that they are just being wildly active out there. It's easy to point at his two huge games and say something like, "Hey, those were against the 2nd and 3rd worst point guard defenses in the league this season!" but, two things. 1) They're ranked that way in large partbecause Knight shredded them, and 2) The Pelicans have allowed more fantasy points to opposing point guards than either of them. I love Knight in all formats, and am definitely a buyer while he's still reasonably cheap.
Damian Lillard - FD 9000 DK 8700
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 38.39 DK Proj. Pts - 41.48
I guess it's shaping up to be a day to spend up a little bit at point guard! Lillard's been dealing with some fingernail loss issues, but the fact remains - he's one of the very highest usage guys in the NBA, and is still priced like a 2nd tier star. It makes sense to some degree - he doesn't post the same absurdly high totals that a lot of the very best do, but he's one of the cheapest guys in the league who shoots 20+ shots per game. In spite of Deangelo Russel's noble tries on defense, he's just not doing much there as of yet. The Lakers have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, and this has all the hallmarks of a high-floor, potentially high ceiling game for Damian.
Quick note: Our projection system likes Russell Westbrook as much as Steph Curry on FanDuel, but the price differences on DraftKings make it so Westbrook is simply a little riskier. Still, if you're spooked about the blow-out, Westbrook might just be safer without qualification.
Early Slate: I love Kyle Lowry against the hobbled CP3.
Eric Bledsoe - FD 8400 DK 8400
Opponent - NOP FD Proj. Pts - 36.7 DK Proj. Pts - 37.83
The Suns have been the Knight/Bledsoe show to a crazy degree thsi season. Bledsoe's shooting 30% more shots per minute this season than he did last year, and he and Knight combine for 57% of the team's usage on the season. An interesting note as well - Markieff Morris had been the owner of 27% usage rate until going down recently, and he's been playing reduced minutes, leaving even more shots for Knight and Bledsoe. Now, Bledsoe is the steadier of the two Suns guards, even if he doesn't have quite the same recent upside. Eric Gordon has improved on defense this season, but he's still an offense-first guy who can fall asleep when squaring off against super active guys like Bledsoe. I love Bledsoe for 50/50s in particular.
Klay Thompson - FD 6300 DK 6100
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 28.35 DK Proj. Pts - 32.01
Klay's been a weird guy this season, because frankly, he just hasn't been paying up on these prices recently. His shots were way down in the last two games, but his season numbers still reflect a guy who will be a value at these prices in the right match-up. Denver represents that right match-up. They've been awful against opposing shooting guards this season, and the Gary Harris/Will Barton duo stands pretty literally no chance of keeping up with Klay. This issue with Thompson is his rotations - he can get his minutes crushed in blowouts since he gets pulled earlyish in the third and starts the 4th. Still, I don't see any reason not to take a risk on the upside here if you need to save up a little at the position.
Gary Harris - FD 4100 DK 3600
Opponent - GSW FD Proj. Pts - 17.48 DK Proj. Pts - 18.6
It's a little riskier than the above guys, obviously - but have you seen what Gary Harris has been doing recently? He's been getting 27+ minutes a game, and now has 3 straight games with 5x points per dollar on this FanDuel price (and even better on DraftKings, where the price is ridiculous). Now, the last time the Nuggets got blown out it was Will Barton who got 36 minutes - but Harris also played 26 minutes in that game. This one could absolutely come back to haunt you, but in a big tournament where you're looking for some separation, it's hard to imagine a lot of people will be on Harris in spite of his 6x points per dollar upside and the great price flexibility he offers you.
Wes Matthews is absurdly cheap on DraftKings, though there's obviously risk there with how he's been performing.
Early Slate: DeRozan, and Crawford for sure if Reddick is out.
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Al-Farouq Aminu - FD 6000 DK 6200
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 26.05 DK Proj. Pts - 27.15
I suspect Aminu will be a near unanimous start on both sites, so I won't belabor the point here. The Los Angeles Lakers are as bad as they've ever been defensively against the small forward, rotating through some combination of Kobe Bryant and a bunch of undersized or under-sped back-ups. There's some chance Aminu draws some attention from Julius Randle, but in that case I imagine he'll just pull him away from the basket with his decent long range game. Pretty sure this will be a monster performance by him.
Jae Crowder - FD 5400 DK 5600
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 22.88 DK Proj. Pts - 24.16
It frankly doesn't feel fantastic to play Crowder as his prices continue to climb and his minutes stay erratic, but on a short slate Sunday, it's one of those beggars and choosers things. First the good - Crowder's minutes are tending upward, and he's had at least 28 minutes in 4 of his last 5 games. He put up 6x points per dollar in two of those games. A crazy Crowder stat - he's leading the league in steals per game (2.8) in spite of only playing 30 minutes per game. That kind of defensive prowess gives him a higher floor than many at these prices, and I like him quite a bit against the Brooklyn team that's allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season.
Andre Iguodala - FD 4700 DK 5000
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 20.93 DK Proj. Pts - 22.21
High floor, no ceiling. Iguodala has been a steady source of 20 fantasy points a game, but rarely more than that. Still, if you're feeling lost at the position and unable to make the money work with the above guys, I imagine Iggy will be good for his usual 28 minutes and 20 fantasy points in a game where the Warriors should put it on Denver once again.
Danilo Gallinari has a great price on DraftKings, even if he is up against the Warriors. He scored 24 points in 35 minutes in their only match-up this season, and if he had run even average on his rebounds, assists, and defensive stats (he had 2 boards and 1 assists with no steals or blocks) he would have paid off handsomely.
Thaddeus Young - FD 6400 DK 6900
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 28.53 DK Proj. Pts - 29.63
Thad is just getting it done day in, day out on these prices - and the sites haven't yet fully adjusted. He's averaged 35 fantasy points a game in his last 7, and frankly, it's looking sustainable. He's averaged 18/9/1 with 2 steals and a block in that time, and put up 31 fantasy points against these same Nets two nights ago. A fine play in all formats, with upside for big tournaments if the Nets can hang long enough for him to get his full run of minutes.
Anthony Davis - FD 10800 DK 10700
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 45.84 DK Proj. Pts - 46.51
It's weird to play a guy who's so fresh off of missing a couple of games, but after seeing the Pels leave Brow out there for 39 minutes in his first game back (and him being pretty effective), it's looking like all systems go against the Suns. Brow is a bad match-up for anyone, but he should have a particularly nice spot against the offense-first (and injured) Markieff Morris. The Suns are playing the third fastest PACE in the NBA this season, and the increased possessions here should make Brow's points per dollar floor on par with all of the other big money plays tonight.
Jared Sullinger - FD 6000 DK 6300
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 33.8 DK Proj. Pts - 35.46
Sullinger didn't get his full run of minutes against the Nets on the 20th because the Celtics didn't need to continue using their starting players after about 2 minutes into the contest. When he was out there, Sullinger did what Sullinger does - scored better than a fantasy point per minute while cleaning the glass and doing a little bit of everything. Keep in mind when looking at defense vs. position stats that Sullinger actually lines up at Center. This is meaningful because the Nets have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing 5s this season, while being a little tougher against power forwards. His minutes may be in question if the Cs blast the Nets into oblivion once again, but on a short slate, I imagine you'll be joining many others in taking that risk.
Dirk Nowitzki - FD 6700 DK 6300
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 29.77 DK Proj. Pts - 31.68
Ew, right? Kinda feels weird to stick Nowitzki in the picks, but we're on three games in a row where he's paid nearly 5x on these prices, and while that's been fueled by a little bit of run-hot from behind the three point line, he's still looking like one of the safer options on a short slate. For all of Ibaka's rim protection prowess, he's not spectacular at chasing bigs around the perimeter. The Thunder have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season, and this looks like a great match-up for Dirk.
Keep an eye on the Kenneth Faried situation. If he's going to sit, that's going to open up a lot of playing time for some cheap guy to fill. If that's Nikola Jokic, for instance, he might wind up becoming our projection system's favorite points per dollar play of the day.
Early slate: Scola and Patterson both look like tremendous values with Valancunias out. The Raps just don't have any back-up bigs. Blake Griffin looks like a great play as well.
Roy Hibbert - FD 5400 DK 4800
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 23.35 DK Proj. Pts - 23.69
Oy, this'll happen on a short slate from time to time. For real, though - Hibbert has averaged 5x points per dollar on these prices in his last 5 games, and his current rotation has him seeing high 20s minutes even in blowouts. Meanwhile, the Trailblazers' interior defense has fallen off a cliff this season - they've allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.
Zaza Pachulia - FD 6000 DK 5500
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 26.07 DK Proj. Pts - 26.55
Yup, it's a weird day at Center. On the early slate you can pay up for Deandre Jordan, but late? It's go-cheap or go home. Pachulia has settled into a rotation that has him seeing low 30s minutes with upside for more if things are going well for him. Now, the Thunder don't represent much of a match-up for him here, and there's a chance that he loses some minutes due to the Mavs not being able to hang - but that's obviously a risk for Hibbert as well. On a bad night for the position, I may just hedge between these two guys and spend up at spots where guys have better upside.
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