Value and Sleeper Picks for Daily Fantasy NFL Football for FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftPot - Week 11

It's another value picks and sleepers article for the 2015 NFL season! With a couple of weeks under our belts, some players are already undervalued on DraftKings and FanDuel. Roles change more rapidly in NFL than they do anywhere else, leaving us a huge opportunity to get to cashing in. Here are some guys that our projection system likes that you might not see elsewhere.

We've also got Chris Raybon's Week 11 NFL picks sitting there waiting for you to digest.

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If you read last week's value picks article and trusted some of our system's deeper value plays then you were a happy camper at the end of Monday night. Marcus Mariota, Lamar Miller and Delanie Walker ended up in many of the winning GPP lineups on the day and were top pts/$ plays in our system. We received a lot of love (and a lot of winning screenshots) from users this week. Very pumped about the success and looking to roll it back for Week 11.
A couple of notes on these picks. They are geared a little more towards DraftKings where, because of pricing range difference, it's a little easier to suss out some value on a given slate. Additionally, remember that these aren't necessarily your super safe cash game plays. There is always a little more risk with these picks than the ones laid out in Chris's Week 11 picks article.

QUARTERBACKS

Matthew Stafford - FD 7000 DK 5400
Opponent- OAK
This game has the highest O/U on the day at 50 and should feature a ton of points coming off as a pick'em. Stafford is coming cheap all things considered and I'd even possibly take a stab at him in a cash game because I think the Lions will throw the ball in this one. Oakland ranks 20th in the league in DVOA against the pass this season and 24th in overall team D. While not the most trustworthy (or really that good of a) quarterback, the price and potential game flow have me really considering him because it unlocks a lot of other things in your lineup.

Russell Wilson - FD 7600 DK 5900
Opponent- SF
He feels very much off the radar right now, but Wilson's been surprisingly consistent (from a fantasy perspective) this season, if not in any way spectacular. His floor is always higher because of his ability to run. He's going for about 35 yards per game on the ground which is about a TD pass worth and helps him from a safety perspective. I wouldn't call it run bad (pun intended) but I do find it interesting that Wilson hasn't run for a TD this year considering how much he's done on the ground. The 49ers are trash on defense, ranking 30th in DVOA on the season and just blowing.

 

RUNNING BACKS

Danny Woodhead - FD 6400 DK 5300
Opponent- KC
He's for all intents and purposes, a receiver at this point. In the last three games he's only had 14 rushing attempts for 68 yards, but has caught 19 balls for 159 and two touchdowns. There are wideouts who are insanely jealous of this kind of usage in the passing game. The way the Chargers use Woodhead could mean he deviates more from his mean, though in PPR formats he's so safe because those catches really do add up. I'd feel iffy about putting him in cash games, because a running back with this kind of profile can get weird. But the Chargers do appear committed to getting him the ball through the air.

LeGarrette Blount - FD 7300 DK 5000
Opponent- BUF
For all the damage the Pats can do through the air, they've fed Blount the ball pretty consistently over the last three weeks. In that span he's averaging a 22/89/1 line on the ground. The Patriots can throw a curve ball whenever you think you've pinpointed exactly how they'll run their offense, but this trend should stick (fingers crossed). New England is -7 favorites which has historically helped running backs in terms of game flow and the Bills are significantly worse against the run, ranking 29th in DVOA this season.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Chris laid out two of the better WR values in Danny Amendola and Stevie Johnson in his main picks article. Those guys are on the cheaper side of things (especially on DraftKings) and can be played in safer fashion. Understand that the guys listed below are worse points/$ than those two guys. But I wanted to mention a few other dudes to take a look at.

Kamar Aiken - FD 5900 DK 4800
Opponent- STL
He's still a great deal considering his new-ish opportunity. With Steve Smith gone, Aiken has put up 13/135 in the last two games. He is clearly the top target guy in Baltimore as he saw 14 looks last week alone. If that kind of volume is to be believed, then he is significantly underpriced on both sites. He hasn't found the end zone in that time, which would really crush the salaries. For now, Aiken is basically a WR1 on a team with a competent QB, priced in the WR2/ WR3 range.

Stefon Diggs - FD 6700 DK 5000
Opponent- GB
He's more of a home run threat as he doesn't see the consistent targets you need to keep a little bit safe. The Vikings really spread the ball in their passing game and don't throw a ton to begin with. But Diggs does have some big games on the log and I suppose could be considered the top target for the Vikings. Though I recognize that isn't saying much.

Consider Jordan Matthews

 

TIGHT ENDS

Jimmy Graham - FD 5800 DK 4900
Opponent- SF
It sure would be great if they looked his way in the red zone. But alas, these aren't the halcyon days of Jimmy Graham and we are left with what he's delivered. But Graham does feature some in the offense and is only a game removed from a 7/75 game. This is much about the 49ers being total garbage on defense and Graham coming as a slightly off board play considering who some of the chalk guys will be.

Jacob Tamme - FD 5300 DK 3600
Opponent- IND
He saw 10 targets two weeks ago before the bye and his last two games combined have seen a 16/164/1 line. Those numbers are fantastic for just about everyone, and especially for a guy in these salary ranges.

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