Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 11/20/15

Big Friday slate, ya'll! I'm sweating down the smallest slate ever while writing these picks - a blessing and a curse. Only one game at a time... but I feel like I have every player on both sides. Oh boy. Let's see if I can do this.

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POINT GUARD

Kyle Lowry - FD 8600 DK 8100
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 38.1 DK Proj. Pts - 40.47
Lowry has been paying off this price routinely in his last 6 games, averaging better than 40 fantasy points per contest while averaging high 30s in the minutes. Tonight? He'll get his best match-up of the season. The Lakers are playing the 9th fastest PACE in the NBA, and they're allowing the third most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. Love Lowry as an upper-middle tier play in all formats on all sites.

Kemba Walker - FD 7400 DK 6700
Opponent - PHI FD Proj. Pts - 31.45 DK Proj. Pts - 33.01
Walker is another guy who has been plenty solid in much tougher match-ups. He's been a 5 category stud (Pts, Assists, Rebounds, Steals, Turnovers), and it's translated to 4 terrific fantasy games in a row. Tonight, he'll draw his best match-up of that stretch as well. The Sixers have slowed it down a little bit PACE wise this season, but they're still standing at the 5th worst defensive efficiency in the league. The Canaan/McConnell duo spends most of its time bouncing the ball up the court and trying not to lose it, making defense something of a secondary concern. He might be something of a limited ceiling play, but especially where his price is fantastic on DraftKings, I could see playing him anywhere.

Brandon Knight - FD 7500 DK 7500
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 32.92 DK Proj. Pts - 34.98
Knight isn't as consistent as the above guys, but he brings a ceiling that's one of the very highest in the league - his 70.5 fantasy point performance from 2 games ago was the best non-Westbrook performance of the season. Knight has been playing increased minutes recently, and there's no reason to think that won't continue. As for the match-up? The Nuggets have been an abomination on defense against point guards this season. They've allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, and while Knight didn't show up against the Nuggets their last time against each other - I'm ready to chalk that up as an aberration. Mudiay gambles too much, and the Nugs' lack of interior defense should make this a nice play.

Also considered: Mudiay is a guy very few people will play who could put up big points.

Russell Westbrook is a nice big money option, particularly on FanDuel, if Durant misses another game. He's expensive, though, so only a consideration if some high quality punts come your way.

SHOOTING GUARD

Eric Bledsoe - FD 8500 DK 8400
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 39.42 DK Proj. Pts - 40.93
Bledsoe positively eviscerated the Nuggets in their last meet-up, to his own fantasy detriment. He never saw the fourth quarter. He did manage to put up a 30/7/4/2 line in 30 minutes, and looked completely unstoppable. The Will Barton/Gary Harris duo just doesn't play any defense at all, and the Nuggets have allowed the very most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season. Bledsoe's price continues to rise, but it frankly hasn't yet caught up to the fact that he's shooting 30% more shots per minute than he did last season. Love him everywhere.

Jamal Crawford - FD 4400 DK 5000
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 22.93 DK Proj. Pts - 25.07
If Reddick is out again, I expect Crawford to be a nearly unanimous start yet again (an 88% start in Thursday's 50/50s). As of this writing, Crawford has shot 41 times in his last two games, including an incredible 27 in a win against the Pistons. There isn't a whole lot to say here, other than Crawford is still cheap enough that you can fit in a ton of elite plays around him. Not sure how you can get away from him here, unless Reddick is back.

C.J. McCollum - FD 6500 DK 6500
Opponent - LAC FD Proj. Pts - 28.48 DK Proj. Pts - 30.32
McCollum is one of the other benefactors of Crawford being in the starting lineup. The man doesn't play defense, and CJ will very likely be putting a lot of balls in the air once again. CJ's been a lock for 36+ minutes per game, and while that hasn't always translated into big production, it's a classic match-up dependent feast/famine situation. Against Jamal Crawford? I'm leaning feast.

Wesley Matthews - FD 4900 DK 4400
Opponent - UTA FD Proj. Pts - 21.39 DK Proj. Pts - 24.02
We gave you Matthews before his last game, and he lived up to our expectations in both of the major ways we predicted. First of all - his minutes cap seemed to be lifted. He played 33 minutes, his high of the season, and was prominently involved on both ends. He also went ahead and delivered, scoring 18 points from the field and arguably running back on assists and rebounds. The Jazz are a pretty awful match-up, truth be told, but the price here is just good enough to overcome basically any match-up. I don't think you can yet call him safe (especially since you can just play Crawford at the same prices), but it's interesting nonetheless.

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SMALL FORWARD

Jeff Green - FD 4300 DK 3900
Opponent - HOU FD Proj. Pts - 21.65 DK Proj. Pts - 23.18
The Jamal Crawford of the small forward position. Green is playing mid-30s minutes, and has paid 7x+ points per dollar in each of his last two performances. This is a match-up independent play at these prices, so there isn't a lot of analysis necessary.

Nicolas Batum - FD 7000 DK 7000
Opponent - PHI FD Proj. Pts - 29.84 DK Proj. Pts - 31.84
Batum is shooting an incredible 33% more shots per minute this season as a member of the Charlotte Hornets, and it's translated into elite fantasy production for the position. The extra shots, combined with similar production in terms of rebounds, assists, and steals, mean Batum is probably a guy who's priced 5%-10% too low. The Sixers, meanwhile, have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. Batum is a phenomenal 50/50 play tonight, with upside for more if Philly manages to keep it close.

Marcus Morris - FD 6000 DK 6300
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 28.33 DK Proj. Pts - 30.64
Morris hasn't paid in his last few outings, but that's just kept him affordable. He shot 9/34 in those 3 games, and I'll trust his established career 43% shooting percentage over a three game sample size. The fact is, Morris is still playing 36+ minutes per game, and averaging 13.5 shots a game. He does just a little bit enough of everything else to give him a 5x points per dollar floor and a 6x points per dollar upside. Minnesota isn't the best match-up in the world, but this is a play where you're grabbing the minutes and the sum of the parts and shrugging your shoulders.

Danilo Gallinari - FD 6900 DK 6300
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 29.43 DK Proj. Pts - 31.9
This is more of a DraftKings play, but our projection system can tolerate Gallinari on any site. Gallinari's usage is a little bit down this season, but the increased minutes have meant increased production, and I don't think he'll get buzzed off minutes-wise the same way he did in the last match-up with Phoenix. The Suns are back to their old tricks, playing the 3rd fastest PACE in the NBA this season. Phoenix has actually been pretty tough against small forwards this season, but they allowed 5% more scoring and 11% more rebounds to opposing threes last season with basically the same personnel. I'm trusting the sample size here, and would happy to get Danilo in there.

POWER FORWARD

Jared Sullinger - FD 6100 DK 6200
Opponent - BKN FD Proj. Pts - 25.19 DK Proj. Pts - 26.51
Sullinger has been one of the very best fantasy points per minute guys in the league this season, and Brad Stevens (and daily fantasy basketball owners) are having a tougher and tougher time keeping him off the court. For fantasy purposes, it's important to remember that Sullinger will be lining up at center. This means he'll get a fantastic match-up with the offense-first Lopez, who's allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing centers this season. Sullinger will be priced higher once his minutes are consistently in the low 30s, and it looks for all the world like that's where his playing time is headed.

Thaddeus Young - FD 6300 DK 6400
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 29.45 DK Proj. Pts - 30.35
Quite simply one of the most reliable options at the power forward position right now. Young has improved a little bit in several areas - he's getting 33% more rebounds per minute than last year, his field goal percentage his risen 10% (relative to last year's number), and he's shooting more frequently. While his price is rapidly climbing, it's just not there yet. It's easy to forget that Young is only 27 years old, and could finally be coming into his role as a scoring heavy double-double threat. Boston has some real guys down low, but they're undersized, and I think Young pairs another nice rebounding game with a fine scoring effort as well.

Terrence Jones - FD 5700 DK 6000
Opponent - MEM FD Proj. Pts - 32.65 DK Proj. Pts - 33.42
Here's to hoping this hand issue is much ado about nothing. His minutes looked to be there on Wednesday, but his usage was down a little bit. It's not the safest play, but Jones is a near $7,000 player when he's playing 35 minutes and healthy. The Grizzlies, by the way, are not the defensive team you remember. They've allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season, and Randolph has just looked 2 steps slow in every direction. He could be a part of a winning GPP lineup tonight, or he could get totally skunked.

A good cheap option: Porzingis, but the erratic minutes make it a little bit problematic for double-ups.

If Davis is out again, Ryan Anderson is a must play on DraftKings, but is a little closer on FanDuel where his price has risen a lot.

CENTER

Jahlil Okafor - FD 6500 DK 7100
Opponent - CHA FD Proj. Pts - 33.71 DK Proj. Pts - 34.18
I recommended Okafor in his last game, and he went out and laid an egg. I understand why it's hard to play young guys like this, but the fact remains - Okafor is shooting more than any qualified center in the league, and his 31+ minutes are totally secure. He's actually in a funny situation, because he plays 31 or so minutes when Philly gets blown out (which is usually the case) and has upside for 36+ minutes when they manage to hang. He has a nice spot with Al Jefferson, who's been a sieve on the defensive end since coming into the league. There's some foul trouble potential here, I suppose, but I frankly think he's still the safest center option going today.

Rudy Gobert - FD 7400 DK 6700
Opponent - DAL FD Proj. Pts - 32.55 DK Proj. Pts - 33.18
It's weird to call a guy that barely shoots "safe," but the Stifle Tower has been playing 38.5 minutes a game since returning from injury, and he's just a great play on these prices. I get that he just had a bad game against the Raptors - but a guy with his size and athleticism just isn't going to have 5 rebounds in 39 minutes very often.

DeAndre Jordan - FD 7600 DK 7500
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 36.33 DK Proj. Pts - 37.02
Basically a Rudy Gobert clone - if you want, this is a good spot to hedge. Play Jordan on FanDuel (where they're comparable), and Gobert on DraftKings (where he's much cheaper). One thing I'll give Jordan, though - he's got a much better match-up. The Trailblazers' poo-poo platter of centers has allowed just .2 fantasy points fewer than the worst-in-the-league Lakers, and it's not hard to imagine Jordan putting up something like 13/18 with 4 blocks. Great 50/50 play, just like Rudy.

For big tournaments, Valancunias has huge upside against an awful Lakers team. He also plays 21 minutes occasionally. So, not exactly what you'd call safe.

 

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