Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
Ford EcoBoost 400

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Ford EcoBoost 400

Homestead-Miami Speedway - Homestead, Florida
18° - 20° Banking in the Turns

In another controversial finish, Dale Earnhardt Jr. won a rain shortened Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 on Sunday. The race was delayed several hours before starting due to track drying efforts and when we finally got going it was Kevin Harvick jumping to an early lead and was out front for 143 laps in total. On lap 195 Dale Jr. made a pit stop for fuel and tires and while on pit road the caution flew for a crash on the track. Earnhardt Jr. beat Harvick to the start/finish line and when the other cars pitted, the #88 became the leader. We never did see another restart as NASCAR called the race due to rain. Harvick ended up finishing 2nd and advanced to the final 4 with Kyle Busch(Finished 4th), Jeff Gordon(Finished 6th), and Martin Truex Jr.(Finished 14th). The four drivers who didn't get a shot to advance due to the rain were pretty upset about the call and I don't blame them. NASCAR has definitely made(and not made) some suspect calls this Chase and will be heavily scrutinized in the offseason.

No matter what happened in the previous 9 Chase races we are in for a great race on Sunday. First of all, as a Kyle Busch fan, I am extremely excited to see his maturity this season after returning from an injury. He will have his first shot at Homestead to capture a Sprint Cup Championship. Next we have Jeff Gordon's final race in NASCAR and what better way to end a great career than to race for a championship. No matter how it plays out it will be an emotional end to one of the greatest drivers NASCAR has ever seen. Then we have the defending champion Kevin Harvick. He has been the most consistent driver in NASCAR this season. He now has 27 Top 10's, 22 Top 5's, 3 wins and only finished outside the Top 20 four times. Finally, we have Martin Truex Jr. playing the role of the underdog in the Final Four. Furniture Row Racing is a smaller one car team and has risen to the elite in NASCAR thanks to Truex Jr's driving ability this season. He only picked up the one win at Pocono Raceway but has 22 Top 10 finishes leading up to this race. No matter who wins the race on Sunday, the true winners are the fans. NASCAR implemented a playoff format that keeps you on the edge of your seat right up until the final lap(unless it rains of course).

The Homestead-Miami Speedway will be host to final race of the season where the Sprint Cup Champion will be crowned. The track is a 1.5 mile intermediate track. There are quite a few drivers with good track records here so we will want to pick drivers with something to prove in the final race. This will be easy for the four drivers who are racing for a championship making all of them great plays on Sunday. For the other drivers it comes down to if they give a s**t in the final race or not. Lets dig in and find some core plays for the race on Sunday.

Upper Tier Targets

Kevin Harvick
DraftKings - $11,400
Fantasy Feud - $
Chase Standings - Final Four
Practice #1 - 7th
Paractice #2 - 2nd
Final Practice - 26th
Qualified - 13th
Pretty obvious pick that checks all the boxes this week. He leads all drivers in average fantasy points per game on DraftKings. He has the best average finish(6.0) at Homestead in the previous 5 races and has great current form with 3 straight Top 10's and 2 straight Top 5 finishes. He is leading NASCAR in laps led(2248) and Fastest Laps(1370) on the season and should be owned in a high % of lineups this week.

Kyle Busch
DraftKings - $10,600
Fantasy Feud - $
Chase Standings – Final Four
Practice #1 - 16th
Practice #2 - 9th
Final Practice - 17th
Qualified - 3rd
He broke his ankle at Daytona and missed the first 11 eleven races of the season while recovering. He came back with a motivation unlike any other driver in NASCAR. He needed to not only get a win but also finish inside the Top 30 in points to advance into the Chase Playoffs. Not only did he get inside the Top 30 he picked up 4 wins including 3 straight wins in July. He has picked up 3 straight Top 5 finishes and is poised to be a heavy pain in Kevin Harvicks butt come Sunday.

Matt Kenseth
DraftKings - $10,200
Fantasy Feud - $
Chase Standings – Not In Chase
Practice #1 - 27th
Practice #2 - 32nd
Final Practice - 8th
Qualified - 19th
He is one non Chase driver that has something to prove on Sunday. He is coming off a two game suspension after wrecking Joey Logano and didn't agree with the decision. He should be extremely motivated in the final race and could be one of the lowest owned drivers at the top of the salary list. He has two Top 5's, four Top 10's, and a 7.8 average finish here at Homestead over the previous 5 races.

Middle Tier Targets

Jeff Gordon
DraftKings - $9,700
Fantasy Feud - $
Chase Standings – Final Four
Practice #1 - 30th
Practice #2 - 15th
Final Practice - 9th
Qualified - 5th
He is a little to high priced to be considered a mid tier target but I had to include the #24 this week. The narrative has gotten so big I don't even know where to start. In his final race in NASCAR he will be racing for his 5th Sprint Cup Championship. It has already been a movie script season and if he was to win it would be an Academy Award Nominee for sure. In his previous 5 races at Homestead he as a win, two Top 5's and three Top 10's, with a 12.8 average finish. Look for the #24 team to do what ever it takes on Sunday to contend for the win.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
DraftKings - $8,700
Fantasy Feud - $
Chase Standings – Not in Chase
Practice #1 - 4th
Practice #2 - 20th
Final Practice - 3rd
Qualified - 9th
He was eliminated two round ago and since then has picked up a 4th, 6th, and won the rain shortened race at Phoenix last weekend. He hasn't quit on his team or himself since being eliminated and should be a strong contender again on Sunday. He has one Top 5, two Top 10's, and a 13.0 average finish in the previous 5 races at Homestead.

Low End Targets

Ryan Newman
DraftKings - $6,900
Fantasy Feud - $
Chase Standings – Not in Chase
Practice #1 - 15th
Practice #2 - 6th
Final Practice - 6th
Qualified - 4th
At his salary on DraftKings he makes a great play in any format this week. He has been very consistent throughout the Chase, even after being eliminated with two finishes inside the Top 11 in the previous round. He has two Top 5's, three Top 10's and a 8.2 average finish at Homestead in the previous 5 races here. He is a near must play and will get a huge boost if he qualifies outside the Top 15 which he has consistently(18.2 average start) done over the previous five races at Homestead.

Justin Allgaier
DraftKings - $5,900
Fantasy Feud - $
Chase Standings – Not in Chase
Practice #1 - 23rd
Practice #2 - 26th
Final Practice - 18th
Qualified - 30th
He makes a nice GPP play for stars and scrubs lineups if you are looking to roster more than 1 top driver. He has raced here once and finished 15th which is a small sample size but nice sign for a low end pick. He has also picked up two top 20 finishes in his last 3 races. I will be looking for him to qualify outside the the Top 20 for the most value.

Post Practice & Qualifying Update

Qualifying Top 10:
1. #11 Denny Hamlin
2. #22 Joey Logano
3. #18 Kyle Busch
4. #31 Ryan Newman
5. #24 Jeff Gordon
6. #21 Ryan Blaney
7. #19 Carl Edwards
8. #2 Brad Keselowski
9. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
10. #3 Austin Dillon

Denny Hamlin picked up the Coors Lite Pole award and will start out front on Sunday. Beside him on the front row will be Joey Logano followed by Kyle Busch, Ryan Newman, and Jeff Gordon to round out the top 5. Joey Logano looks like he has a strong car for the race as he was 5th and 1st in teh final 2 practices and was also 3rd in consecutive 10 lap average. Kevin Harvick didn't make it into the final round of qualifying and will start 13th on Sunday providing some pace differential value as he should easily finish inside the Top 10. Kurt Busch makes a nice GPP play as he qualified 15th for the race and was 17th and 5th in the final two practices and had the 5th best Consecutive 10 lap Average. On the low end I really like Casey Mears as a nice value starting 27th. He was 23rd and 14th in final practices. Don't forget about David Ragan either who qualified 38th.

Good Luck everyone!

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.