Daily Fantasy Nascar Picks
Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500

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Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500

Phoenix International Raceway - Avondale, AZ
Track Type/Length - 1 Mile Tri Oval Paved Short Track
9° - 11° Banking in the Turns

Brad Keselowski dominated the first 95% of the race at Texas, leading 312 laps and looked poised to grab the win and advance on to the final four at Homestad. This was until a late restart with 10 laps to go. Keselowski got out front when the green flag dropped but not for long as the 5 time Texas winner, Jimmie Johnson showed in the #2's rear view mirror pressing hard to make the pass and finally did picking up his 6th win at the track. The runner up leaves Keselowski outside the Chase Bubble, 19 points behind 4th place Martin Truex Jr. and leaving him with an almost must win situation at Phoenix. The same can be said for teammate Joey Logano who had early tire issues and ended up in 40th. He will join Kurt Busch, sitting in 7th place in the Chase standings, as drivers who will need to win this weekend.

This week NASCAR and the final 8 drivers in the Chase for the Sprint Cup head to Phoenix International Raceway for the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500. It will be the final elimination race before the finale at Homestead, Miami where we will see a champion crowned. The track is a 1 mile tri oval short track that is fairly flat through the corners with between 9 & 11 degrees of banking. This is going to be another very important track position race as it is very tough to pass here at Phoenix. It should also be noted that it is usually one driver who leads a majority of the laps and that driver, ladies and gentlemen, is Kevin Harvick. I am pretty sure they are changing the name of the track to "Harvick's Place" if he wins here again. We will dig into Harvick a little deeper very shortly. For now you should know that the weather forecast looks amazing for the weekend and I wish I was on a plane to Arizona myself for some sun, golf, beer and NASCAR. I digress though. As always we will want to wait to finalize out lineups until we see qualifying order on Friday and the final two practices on Saturday. Lets take a look and find some core drivers for the race on Sunday.

Upper Tier Targets

Kevin Harvick
DraftKings - $11,600
Fantasy Feud - $285,000
Vegas Odds - 3.25/1
Chase Standings - 3rd
Practice #1 - 6th
Paractice #2 - 4th
Final Practice - 5th
Qualified - 8th
I thought his price would be considerably more than the next tier of drivers which would have been nice for his ownership. He is only $800 more than Brad Keselowski on DraftKings and is the obvious favorite going into this eliminator race at Phoenix. He has won the last four races here and five of the last six. He doesn't just win here, he dominates the field. In the last five races he has led 782 laps. The next closest driver? Carl Edwards with 159 and Joey Logano with 156. Kyle Busch, in an interview earlier this week, called this race "Unwinnable" for the other 42 drivers and said the other Chase drivers(At least the #18 team) will be racing for points to advance. Harvick is probably going to be the highest owned driver this weekend so it is wise to have him in multiple GPP lineups and at this price he is even safe to roll in cash games.

Brad Keselowski
DraftKings - $10,800
Fantasy Feud - $255,000
Vegas Odds - 5.5/1
Chase Standings – 6th
Practice #1 - 17th
Practice #2 - 14th
Final Practice - 16th
Qualified - 18th
He came oh so close to picking up the win at Texas. He dominated the race up until the most important part of the race, the end. Jimmie Johnson got by with a few laps to go and took the win, leaving Brad in an almost must win situation on Sunday. He sits 19 points out of 4th in the Chase standings and theoretically could still make it on points but a lot would have to go wrong for those in front of him. His best shot is to try for another win. In the last five races here at Phoenix he has three top 5's and four top 10's with a 5.6 average finish. He looks to have the best shot at ending Harvick's four race win streak here.

Carl Edwards
DraftKings - $9,400
Fantasy Feud - $210,000
Vegas Odds - 13/1
Chase Standings – 5th
Practice #1 - 4th
Practice #2 - 2nd
Final Practice - 8th
Qualified - 4th
In the last six races here at Phoenix, Edwards is the only other driver to record a win besides Kevin Harvick. He has also lead the 2nd most laps in the last five races with 159 total laps led. He has been extremely consistent throughout the Chase and sits just 7 points behind Martin Truex Jr. for the last seat in to the final race at Homestead. He comes in under $10K on DraftKings and makes a great choice in any format.

Middle Tier Targets

Jeff Gordon
DraftKings - $8,800
Fantasy Feud - $185,000
Vegas Odds - 19/1
Chase Standings – 1st
Practice #1 - 25th
Practice #2 - 18th
Final Practice - 20th
Qualified - 11th
He is the only driver in the field on Sunday who is locked into the season finale at Homestead and will feel no pressure to win. He has two top 5's, four top 10's and a 7.8 average finish at Phoenix in the last five races here. He hasn't finished worse than 10th in the last five races and will be a staple in my cash games this week.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
DraftKings - $8,800
Fantasy Feud - $190,000
Vegas Odds - 19/1
Chase Standings – Not in Chase
Practice #1 - 9th
Practice #2 - 5th
Final Practice - 3rd
Qualified - 3rd
Since being eliminated from the Chase last round Dale Jr. has came back with a 4th and 6th place finish in this round. He has a nice track history here with two career wins and has been solid lately while Harvick has been dominating. He has three top 5's and four top 10 finishes in the last five races here with a 12.0 average finish. He makes a great cash game play at the price point and has the upside to pick up a win come Sunday making him safe in all formats.

Low End Target

Ricky Stenhouse Jr
DraftKings - $6,100
Fantasy Feud - $95,000
Vegas Odds - 501/1
Chase Standings – Not in Chase
Practice #1 - 12th
Practice #2 - 23rd
Final Practice - 28th
Qualified - 19th
He started the Chase out with 6 straight top 20 finishes and made a great low end salary relief option. Since then he has tailed off a bit with a 39th at Martinsville and 21st at Texas. Look for another top 20 finish this weekend when he return to a track he has been fairly good at in his career. Stenhouse Jr. hasn't picked up a top 10 in his five career races here but has an average finish of 15.0 and makes a great play again this week if he qualifies outside the top 20.

Post Practice & Qualifying Update

Qualifying Top 10:
1. #48 Jimmie Johnson
2. #41 Kurt Busch
3. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.
4. #19 Carl Edwards
5. #78 Martin Truex Jr.
6. #42 Kyle Larson
7. #20 Erik Jones
8. #4 Kevin Harvick
9. #5 Kasey Kahne
10. #18 Kyle Busch

After a win last weekend, Jimmie Johnson remains fast going into Sundays race at Phoenix. He captured the Coors Lite Pole Award and was 1st, 6th, and 2nd in the three practices. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the #48 grab another win and shake up who advances to the final at Homestead.

Kurt Busch qualified on the front row beside Jimmie and was fastest in both of the final two practices. Teammate Kevin Harvick qualified 8th and was 4th and 5th in the final two practices. Both Stewart-Haas cars should be strong contenders on Sunday.

Joe Gibbs teammates Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards qualified 10th and 4th respectively and should provide a huge push for the win on Sunday and both looking to advance into the final at Homestead.

Not a lot of value this week at Phoenix meaning a lot of balanced, chalky lineups. If you want to go stars and scrubs, Cole Whitt makes a nice low end option.

Good Luck everyone!

Want to see how these picks and more fit into lineups for the Goody's Headache Relief Shot 500? Chris is selling a cheatsheet and lineups for DraftKings and FantasyFeud for $5. This is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership. Head over to our PayPal payment page, if that's more your bag.

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.