Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 11/8/15

The NBA is back! And honestly, I feel like if never really left us. The Finals seem like yesterday, the off season saw a ton of moves and we are ready to jump back into another season. We'll be bringing you daily picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and more. It's going to be a great season.

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POINT GUARD

Russell Westbrook - FD 10800 DK 10800
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 47.95 DK Proj. Pts - 49.68
Phoenix plays a top 8 PACE in the league, and Westbrook hasn't missed a beat usage wise from last year's incredible season. The return of Kevin Durant hasn't slowed him down as some suspected, and in fact, the return of KD seems to have actually been exactly the answer to the Thunder's spacing problems last season. Westbrook is shooting 21.2 shots per game, and his field goal percentage has jumped 4.6%. His assists are up to double digits. He's generally a man possessed. If you can afford him, this should be another lovely performance to watch.

Reggie Jackson - FD 8100 DK 7500
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 34.94 DK Proj. Pts - 36.4
After getting off to a slow start against Phoenix on Friday, Jackson recovered to post a very solid 23/6/7 line in just 30 minutes. Jackson seems more confident in Detroit this season under the tutelage of Stan Van Gundy. He's shooting 2 more shots per game in roughly the same minutes than last year, and the absence of Brandon Jennings has him dealing 1.6 more assists per game as well. Damian Lillard's defense is notorious around these parts - the Trail Blazers allowed 8% more scoring and 16% more assists to opposing PGs than league average last season, and they've gotten arguably worse this year. I love Jackson on DraftKings in particular, where he's very affordably priced.

Mo Williams - FD 5800 DK 5900
Opponent - IND FD Proj. Pts - 28.98 DK Proj. Pts - 31.39
Our projection system seems to want us to play Mo Williams every game at these prices, but I'm sad to admit we often don't listen. Williams is a shoot first point guard who plays with Lebron James and Kevin Love, which really ought to eat into his effectiveness... except it hasn't seemed to. He's on three great games in a row on these prices, and he's lost minutes to blowouts in two of those. Tonight he'll have the Pacers, who could stand a chance on the back of the resurgent Paul George. They were almost exactly league average against PGs last season, and have a dead even defensive efficiency this year. I love Mo as a way to loosen up price restrictions elsewhere tonight.

A lot of people will play Damian Lillard, but not me. Detroit is a very underrated team defensively. They have the third best defensive efficiency in the NBA this season, and the league's 6th slowest PACE. This is a time to go against the crowd.

Also considered: George Hill. It's without question the Paul George show right now, but he's playing a ton of minutes and there has been some weird fluky stuff (like 2 rebounds in his last 76 minutes on the court) that isn't likely to continue, and I love him up against the offense-first Mo Williams.

SHOOTING GUARD

C.J. McCollum - FD 6500 DK 6400
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 27.96 DK Proj. Pts - 29.82

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - FD 5000 DK 5000
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 23.35 DK Proj. Pts - 25.72
With all of his focus on the offensive end, McCollum simply isn't much of a defender. Portland allowed 5% more scoring than league average to opposing SGs last season, and while that's not an apples to apples comparison due to the huge personnel change, it still speaks something to their defensive philosophy. KCP is not an exciting player, mostly because he's a one-trick scoring pony, but he's playing a ton of minutes for the Pistons and Stan-Van this season (averaging 37 per), and that's turned into averaging production of 4.6 points per dollar on these prices. Very solid, and plenty of production if you want to get away from a normally erratic position cheaply.

Eric Bledsoe - FD 8000 DK 7800
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 33.07 DK Proj. Pts - 34.39
A better play on DraftKings, but Bledsoe has been awfully solid so far this season. While OKC is a tough match-up just because of blow-out potential, they've been getting things done more with their offense than their defense. The Thunder are playing the 11th fastest PACE in the league, and have the 8th worst defensive efficiency. They're especially weak at shooting-guard, where their rotation cast of characters is nothing like what the Durant/Westbrook/Ibaka can do. Bledsoe's averaged 36.7 fantasy points per game this season, and I think he could be something North of that (even if our projection system likes him a little bit less).

Also considered: D-Wade looks like a pretty safe play for 50/50s if the money winds up getting weird on you.

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SMALL FORWARD

Paul George - FD 8900 DK 8600
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 40.53 DK Proj. Pts - 43.08
I've used terms like "hot start" in talking about how George has played so far this season, but after a more careful analysis, it mostly looks like he's just recovered from injury. After playing 100+ nights of daily fantasy since Paul George's injury, it's easy to forget that this is pretty much exactly who he was during the 2013-14 season. He's shooting just a little bit more, and rebounding a little more - but otherwise this is that same MVP caliber player. The price has unfortunately crept up on him a bit, but our system still likes him as being very affordable. The wild-card here of course is that he'll likely be covered by Lebron James with a point to prove, but I think George rises to the occasion, and is at the very least a very attractive 50/50 and double-up play.

Marcus Morris - FD 6000 DK 6200
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 28.47 DK Proj. Pts - 30.59
The safest guy at his position from a points per dollar perspective, and I'm not even sure it's close. Morris is playing huge minutes, and like Paul George, this is basically just the same guy he's always been on more minutes. His little-bit-of-everything approach has him scoring 29.7 fantasy points per game this season, and there's no reason that should change in an essentially league average match-up with Aminu and the Blazers.

Kevin Durant - FD 10100 DK 9600
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 42.2 DK Proj. Pts - 44.79
Durant's got a fantastic match-up against PJ Tucker and the fast-paced Suns, and Durant has managed to add more shots even while Westbrook is doing the same. Of particular interest is how KD could do from a rebounding perspective here - he's got a great height advantage against Tucker, and the Suns allowed 8% more rebounding than league average to opposing 3s last season. If you can find the $, this looks like a great play - on DraftKings in particular.

Also considered: Aminu, if that's where the money winds up for you. A fine play. People will also play Carmelo Anthony against the pathetic Lakers, but I'll probably pass just because there are so many other good options.

POWER FORWARD

Kristaps Porzingis - FD 5200 DK 5600
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 26.91 DK Proj. Pts - 27.85
He'll be nearly a unanimous start, so it makes sense to list him first. Kristaps Porzingis may look like a guy who plays center for the Navy basketball team just because he's the tallest guy current enrolled, but the Latvian has put on an athletic display that few anticipated. He's crashing the boards more effectively than most imagined he could on his relatively slight frame, and been a disruptive force on the defensive end as well (as evidenced by his 1.8 steals and 1.2 blocks per game in just 24 minutes/game). His minutes are on the upswing, and he's got a fantastic match-up against the Lakers, who combine the 4th fastest pace with the 2nd worst defensive efficiency.

Julius Randle - FD 5900 DK 6700
Opponent - NYK FD Proj. Pts - 28.98 DK Proj. Pts - 29.53
Randle seems pretty well locked into a 33ish minute rotation when the Lakers are in close games, and this is basically a dream match-up for that to be a possibility. The Knicks are a crime against humanity, and while I like Porzingis from a fantasy perspective, it's hard to imagine him chasing around an athlete of Randle's caliber. Randle's still not settled in to any sort of reliable tempo - he's got two games with 14+ shots, and 2 with 9 or fewer - but he's a total package guy that should wind up putting his biggest numbers up in extended minutes against the league's bad teams.

Markieff Morris - FD 5800 DK 6000
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 28.98 DK Proj. Pts - 30.06
The prospect of playing the other Morris again kind of feels like facing a 3rd parole hearing, but here we are. I could make a lot of excuses for Morris' erratic minutes, but I won't do that. Instead, I'll say this - you're getting a pretty wide standard deviation of performance in choosing a guy who's both foul-prone and temper-tantrum prone. Still, Morris is a real talent who is shooting a ton for a guy at this price point, with 4 games with 17 or more field goal attempts in his first 6. He's been running bad from a field goal percentage standpoint as well. The Thunder are not a fantastic match-up for his skill set, but if you're playing in a big tournament, he could be part of the winning squad.

 
Also considered: Serge Ibaka.

 

CENTER

Andre Drummond - FD 9200 DK 9000
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 41.37 DK Proj. Pts - 42.15
He'll be the chalk play at center tonight, even after a down game against the Suns in his last game out. After averaging 18 shots a game in his previous two contests, Drummond only got 9 in the air against the Suns, and was clearly flummoxed by their hack-a-Dre approach and his 2-13 night from the line. Still, Drummond did the thing he does best, crashing the boards for 17 rebounds. He'll have an even more favorable match-up tonight against Meyers Leonard, and I'm expecting a very high floor with plenty of ceiling as well.

Hassan Whiteside - FD 7900 DK 7600
Opponent - TOR FD Proj. Pts - 37.25 DK Proj. Pts - 37.89
Arguably more of a DraftKings play, but Whiteside has averaged 4 blocks and 11.5 rebounds in his last 3 games, and should have plenty of time to build upon those totals with Lowry and DeRozan flying into the lane over and over again in this one. Toronto is essentially a league average matchup in terms of PACE and defense against the Center position, for what that's worth. I don't see tons of points per dollar upside here, but like him fine as a hedge if you just can't make the money work with Drummond and the rest of what you'd like to do.

Tyson Chandler - FD 5800 DK 5700
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 29.83 DK Proj. Pts - 30.41
Chandler has been playing a ton of minutes for Phoenix, and has had two excellent games on this price point early on in the season. While this game could get out of hand (and thus make this a play that's out of the question for double-ups), there's also a scenario in which Chandler abuses the soft Enes Kanter for a pretty huge night.

An interesting punt: Robin Lopez. Rolo has hardly been a fantasy force so far this season, but if Lopez plays his full 32 minute rotation and his rebounds to regress to his career levels, this could be interesting. If that all comes together, again, the Lakers have been the very best match-up in the NBA for opposing centers since the start of the 2014 season.

Also considered:
 

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