Lamar Miller runs the ball during an NFL football game between the Houston Texans and the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Oct. 25, 2015, in Miami, FL. (Photo by Marc Serota/Panini)
It's another value picks and sleepers article for the 2015 NFL season! With a couple of weeks under our belts, some players are already undervalued on DraftKings and FanDuel. Roles change more rapidly in NFL than they do anywhere else, leaving us a huge opportunity to get to cashing in. Here are some guys that our projection system likes that you might not see elsewhere.
We've also got Chris Raybon's Week 9 NFL picks sitting there waiting for you to digest.
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A couple of notes on these picks. They are geared a little more towards DraftKings where, because of pricing range difference, it's a little easier to suss out some value on a given slate. Additionally, remember that these aren't necessarily your super safe cash game plays. There is always a little more risk with these picks than the ones laid out in Chris's Week 9 picks article.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - FD 7500 DK 5200
Opponent- JAC
This is strictly a DraftKings play if you are looking to go a little cheaper at quarterback. Fitzpatrick left last week's game with a thumb injury, never a good sign for a quarterback. But he's expected to play this week and many of my thoughts from last week about him hold true this time around. If Marshall and Decker are in the lineup then Fitz has two solid target options and he'll be playing a Jaguars' defense ranked 28th in the league in DVOA against the pass this season. Again, this isn't the safest play of the week, but the price on DraftKings is so very low and the matchup is choice.
Marcus Mariota - FD 7100 DK 5300
Opponent- NO
I always get self-conscious with these plays in that I want to reiterate time and time again that they are far from the safest dudes out there. Mariota projects to come back from injury this week and if he is the starter then I think you can take a stab on Mariota on the cheap, especially on DraftKings. New Orleans, as shown week after week, if the worst pass defense in all of football. They rank dead last in DVOA against the pass and it isn't particularly close. On the off chance he comes back and chips in with even a little of production on the ground along with something in the range of mid-30's in terms of pass attempts then he could crush this price.
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Darren McFadden - FD 6500 DK 4300
Opponent- PHI
The Cowboys are a mess on offense after being decimated and McFadden now appears the last man standing for the ground game. That he was actually somewhat productive against the Seahawks last week is a fantastic sign for his production and I think he's a great value on both sites this week, especially DraftKings. McFadden is seeing the bulk of the carries out of the backfield and also is targeted a bunch in the passing game. The Eagles have actually been good on defense this season, but McFadden represents your standard opportunity and price play that we love. I'm fine running in him in all formats.
Lamar Miller - FD 6900 DK 5000
Opponent- BUF
I'll take the poor performance against the Pats with a grain of salt simply because the Dolphins really couldn't afford to get the run game going as they needed to try and keep pace with the Pats' offense. This will be a different story against the Bills who don't project to pull ahead of the Fins in any meaningful way. Miller's projected carries are there in this game and Buffalo ranks 24th in the DVOA against the rush this season. He's another guy who I actually see as safer value considering the way the Dolphins should use him and the potential flow of the game.
Malcom Floyd - FD 6100 DK 3900
Opponent- CHI
Chris wrote up Stevie Johnson as being a solid play with Keenan Allen out this week and I think Malcolm Floyd follows much of the same reasoning. Allen was such a target monster and those passes need to go somewhere. Floyd isn't the top dog on the food chain (Johnson, Gates and Woodhead average more targets per game this season) but I think there is major upside for Floyd at these lower prices.
Robert Woods - FD 4900 DK 3500
Opponent- MIA
This is speculative in that Woods gets a bump if Harvin and Watkins are out again. Though even if Watkins plays, I still think you can take a stab at Woods considering his recent target production. He's seen an increase in looks over the last two weeks with the game against Jacksonville as a real coming out party (9/84/1). I'm not penciling him in there for that kind of production, but as a min-priced play even something in the range of 8-9 targets is fantastic value.
Pierre Garcon - FD 6300 DK 5000
Opponent- NE
Jamison Crowder - FD 5700 DK 3700
Opponent- NE
The Redskins are going to get crushed in this game. That much seems obvious. But before the final whistle sounds, you'd think they'd have to throw a lot just to try and keep pace (which they won't be able to do). Both Garcon and Crowder could stand to see some garbage time targets here and though neither are looked at in the red zone there should be plenty of playing catch up from the Redskins' side.
Delanie Walker - FD 5500 DK 4200
Opponent- NO
We liked him as a value play last week and the same reasoning applies again this week. Walker is second on the Titans in targets this season and as I said with Mariota, the Saints are just atrocious at defending anyone who is ever thrown the ball. Walker helps you get a decent tight end floor in for cheap, though the red zone looks leave a little to be desired.
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what's your opinion on cutler? I know that he can be a turnover machine but at the same time he could potentialy move the ball and put up some points against a mediocre defense like San Diego. He's got his biggest weapon back in jeffery and I don't think verrett at 5'10 will have the same amount of success earlier covering a guy like jeffery