Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 11/6/15

After a short slate on Thursday, we've got a monster slate to usher in the weekend. Value plays, punt plays, and some superstars in great match-ups. Find out our best plays by reading below!

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POINT GUARD

Jerryd Bayless - FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - NYK FD Proj. Pts - 23.8 DK Proj. Pts - 24.85
T.J. McConnell - FD 4200 DK 4000
Opponent - CLE FD Proj. Pts - 22.52 DK Proj. Pts - 23.37
So damned cheap - what are you supposed to do? Michael Carter-Williams is doubtful for Friday's contest against the Knicks, meaning Bayless will be a minimum priced guy with opportunity upside in the high 30s in terms of minutes. Bayless has one of the very lowest usage rates in the NBA for a back-court player, and you will see some games like his last one (5 points, 4 boards, 3 assists) even on extended minutes. Still, that feels like his floor, and he's flashed 30+ FanDuel point upside, which is a rare find for guys at these prices.

Unless you can look across the aisle to TJ McConnell. T.J.'s got back to back games with 12 assists, and has averaged 8 rebounds in those two games as well. If he's going to start, he looks like a phenomenal play. I'm not deep enough into this slate to know if you can go deep value for both of these point guard spots, but it's looking awfully tempting given what either of these guys are capable of. I gave the slight nod to Bayless here just because Cleveland could absolutely run the Sixers out of the gym (and the Bucks are likely to be in a closer game against the Knicks), but frankly, both of these guys are fantastic plays in any format.

Kyle Lowry - FD 8000 DK 7900
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 36.38 DK Proj. Pts - 38.6
Lowry represents a great chance to spend up a little without breaking the bank, if that's the direction you decide to go. He's coming off a bad game, which should make him underowned by the "what have you done for me lately" crowd. When you get an off performance by a great player like Lowry, it's important to look at why. Well, Lowry was largely the same guy, except the knuckle-heads on his team couldn't see to find the bottom of the hoop - after averaging an even 8 assists per game through his first 4, he had just 1 against OKC. That will almost certainly be his lowest total of the season, and it stands to reason that Elfrid Payton will have a harder time keeping up with Lowry than Russell Westbrook did. What I love even more about Lowry this year is his increased defensive presence. He's averaged 2.8 steals per game, and nearly a block per game to go with it. It's impossible to say if any of that will last, but it should just be icing on the cake in what should be a pretty high floor match-up.

Mo Williams - FD 5700 DK 5800
Opponent - PHI FD Proj. Pts - 29.48 DK Proj. Pts - 31.84
Arguably a big tournament play only, just because this one is so likely to get out of hand. Still, Mo is cheap, and he's on back to back games paying 5x+ on these prices - including one game against Philadelphia. The Ill-a-delph isn't the defensive black hole you remember, at least in terms of fantasy points allowed. Well, I should rephrase - they're still awful in terms of defensive efficiency, but their newly found super-slow pace is allowing opponents far fewer opportunities. Basically no one is going to play Williams due to the existence of the above guys, who will allow people to spend up big at other positions. This makes him the perfect tournament play. Either McConnell or Bayless could lay a stinker, and an off beat huge upside play like Williams is exactly the type that could win a big tournament for you.

The 10 thousand pound Gorilla: Okay, more like 160 pound howler monkey. But man, what the hell is going on with Steph Curry this season? He's shooting an astronomical 21 times per game (3.5 more than he ever has before), including a ridiculous 11 three point attempts a game as well. And, insanely, he's hitting shots at a higher rate than he ever has before as well. In terms of percentages, though, the man simply can't shooting 57/52/94 in terms of his percentages on that volume. If he ends the season with these numbers, it would be something greater than legendary, and probably the best offensive season by any player ever. The price continues to climb, but can the performance keep up? I'll be fading him on FanDuel for sure, but can see taking a risk on him on DK.

Considered: Ty Lawson. His usage has been way down, but some of that looks like some unsustainable Harden chasing with off balance threes in games that have gotten out of hand. Lawson had shot 12-13 times a game since becoming a starter in 2011, and been steady at 44-48% from the field. This year he's shooting 9 times a game and only managing a 37% FG%. The fewer shots could be legit, or it could be one of those early season small sample things. Only time will tell, but our projection system is optimistic.

SHOOTING GUARD

Evan Fournier - FD 5500 DK 5200
Opponent - TOR FD Proj. Pts - 23.41 DK Proj. Pts - 25.95
What are you supposed to do about guys like Fournier, whose price has increased by 20%, but whose production has warranted a price even higher? You break it down by the numbers. A lot of people have slandered Fournier with the "running hot" label, but digging deeper, that looks like a dramatic overstatement. Fournier's only shooting 3% better from the field overall, and has been 3% worse from deep. So it's not like he's banking home shots from mid-court or something. No, what's really changed about Fournier is his opportunity. He's playing unreal minutes and shooting a ton - his minutes are up from 29 per game to 39 per game this year, and his stats have risen in lock step. None of this looks unsustainable, frankly, and in a nice match-up with Toronto (who allowed 8% more scoring than league average to opposing SGs last season and are playing a top 12 pace this year) I will be playing him once again in all formats.

Marcus Thornton - FD 4100 DK 4000
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 23.16 DK Proj. Pts - 25.64
He's the new Evan Fournier, only not as good. For real, though - Thornton is playing unreal minutes while the other wing types have been down for the Rockets, and he's providing the outside shooting the Rockets so desperately need to maintain their spacing. Really, though, the story here is price and opportunity. If he's going to keep playing 30 minutes a game, he's an elite play in any format. Keep an eye on game news, though, as his starting job is likely very tenuous.

James Harden - FD 9800 DK 10000
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 48.38 DK Proj. Pts - 51.43
"How many nights can you continue to do it to yourself, James?" A question I asked myself as it looked like Harden would bury another round of cash games in his last match-up with the Magic. Harden was able to claw back into modest respectability as the game luckboxed into overtime, but we're now looking at 3 of 5 games this season where he was an incredible drain on your daily fantasy hoops squad. So what's going on, here? Some have pointed to Dwight's return, but Harden's usage has actually been higher with Dwight on the floor this season. In fact, as the number of mouths to feed has increased in Houston this year, Harden's shots have actually climbed by 11% per game over last year. So we should be all, "Wow, more opportunity! This is bound to turn around!" But then there's the eyeball test. Watching these Rocket games, Harden's shot selection has been awful. He's shooting unbalanced 3s early in the clock (and shooting a ton of 3s in general, since his team has been down so much), and his me-first mentality has resulted in fewer assists as well. So what gives with the high ranking? Well, I think Harden has simply been pressing early in the season. The Rockets have gone down huge in some really fluky ways that just can't continue, and this game against the Kings' shooting guard poo-poo platter should be a great reset game for him. I think he calms down and puts up his first truly huge game of the season. But if he goes 6/22 from the field or something, expect a different tale in tomorrow night's picks.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - FD 5000 DK 5100
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 23.26 DK Proj. Pts - 25.66
KCP has been steady Eddie in every phase of the game that matters for our purposes. He's playing absolutely huge minutes, and while his shots per minute are down a little bit, the extra volume he's getting in other areas has made him a very solid 50/50 play on these prices. He's averaging 23 fantasy points (4.6x) on this $5,000 salary, and frankly he's got upside for plenty more on the night where he just winds up getting a few more looks for whatever reason. Well, tonight he'll face the Suns, who play at the 8th fastest pace in the league. His previous 4 match-ups have been against teams ranging from league average at the fastest (Chicago, 15th in the league) to the very slowest team - Utah. There should be more eats for all the guys on Detroit, and KCP should be a chief beneficiary.

Also considered: Eric Gordon. If you trust the minutes he's been getting in close games, he's a hot shooting night away from being the top points per dollar play at the position. Against a hobbled Kyle Korver, this could be a huge performance.

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SMALL FORWARD

Marcus Morris - FD 5800 DK 6100
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 28.58 DK Proj. Pts - 30.81
The lesser Morris? Pshaw! Marcus is playing unreal minutes for Stan Van Gundy, who clearly appreciates his max-effort and me-second approach to the small forward position. His per-minute numbers are pretty much exactly what they've been in earlier parts of his career, and if SVG trusts him to give him these kind of minutes, the production will simply follow. Today should give him a boost in the same way it will give KCP a boost. Phoenix's 103.1 PACE is dramatically higher than the averaged out 98.4 PACE Detroit's opponents have played in aggregate this season. Those extra possessions will mean more production, and make Morris a great play anywhere.

DeMarre Carroll - FD 6000 DK 5800
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 28.61 DK Proj. Pts - 30.96
Carroll is flashing an offensive upside he didn't really have in Atlanta last season. Barring the one game where he stopped shooting due to being ice cold, Carroll has been a solid third option for the Toronto offense that really needs a guy who can do what he can do (namely, shooting 4.5 threes a game at a near 40% clip). He's shooting 33% more shots per minute this season, and his dip in efficiency looks more due to bad luck than not being able to take on the additional volume. I love Carroll in a "be greedy when others are being fearful" sort of way.

Khris Middleton - FD 5700 DK 5600
Opponent - NYK FD Proj. Pts - 27.36 DK Proj. Pts - 29.12
It feels kind of dopey to recommend three guys at almost exactly the same price, but this might be a signal to you: it's the perfect time to hedge across three different guys for 2 or 3 slots. As you can see by the points projections, our projection system likes each of these guys for their own reasons. I list the above guys higher because our readers tend to prefer safety to upside, but if I were ranking these guys for upside, Middleton would top the charts. In the right match-up - one that stays close without a lock-down wing defender to cover Middleton, he's capable of huge production in multiple phases of the game. In bad match-ups, he can disappear. Today? He'll get the Knicks, who happen to start an indifferent ex superstar, and don't have the roster to blow anyone out. Interesting spot to dream big on Middleton here. You could also throw in Trevor Ariza into this group. It's just a log-jam.

Also considered: LeBron. The guy blitzed the 76ers a few nights ago, putting up an insane 58 fantasy points against a team that represents the best possible match-up for him. Noel isn't quick enough to follow him, and none of their wings are big enough. The risk here is the minutes going short, but he could frankly even pay it in that case.

POWER FORWARD

Anthony Davis - FD 10600 DK 10700
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 50.27 DK Proj. Pts - 51.02
A close second behind Harden for my favorite big money plays of the night. Brow, like Harden, hasn't provided the kind of production you'd like to see on these big price tags. Unlike Harden, there actually are some troubling trends here. He's playing further away from the basket (part of this absurd "he's working on a 3 pointer!" plan), and it seems to be kind of crushing his offensive game. His offensive rebounds are declining, and his field goal percentage has fallen off a cliff. He's bizarrely increased his 3s per game from .2 to 2.8, and reduced his 2 point field goals by more than 4 per game. And it isn't working. Mark my words - the Pelicans won't continue to watch this new plan derail a playoff hopeful season. I believe very strongly that they'll rise to the level of their competition, and tear down the Hawks tonight.

Markieff Morris - FD 5800 DK 6200
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 28.83 DK Proj. Pts - 29.89
I can't quit you, Markieff Morris. Our projection system has been doling out Markieff Morris recommendations all season. The minutes have been erratic all season, but most of that has been a result of some seriously weird situations. They randomly blew out the Kings in their last match-up, when Markieff was on pace to put up something like 8x points per dollar on this price. Well, this is a time to back up the truck on Morris. He's shooting .53 shots per minute instead of .42 shots per minute, which doesn't sound like a huge deal until you realize he's shooting more shots per game on 6 fewer minutes this season. The minutes will follow (as evidenced by his PT in their closer games), and Morris' field goal percentage will rise up to his well established levels. And the crazy thing is that all of this will likely happen at the same time. I normally consider Morris a little too risky, but it's hard to imagine populating lineups without his name in them today.

Thaddeus Young - FD 5600 DK 5600
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 25.17 DK Proj. Pts - 26.08
It's a testament to how awful the Nets are that Thad's the first one to cross this article, but here we are. Thad's frankly been great on these prices in his last three games, posting between 5x and 6x points per dollar in easy and sustainable ways - crashing the boards for 8+ rebounds a game, scoring in the low teens, and doing just enough elsewhere to fill out his sheet. The Lakers combine the league's 3rd fastest PACE with the very worst defensive efficiency in the league. I love, love Thad for his safety here, and I'm not sleeping on his upside.

Also considered: Kevin Love - he's still cheap, and it's a great match-up with Philly. He doesn't seem like the optimal guy to play in a blow-out (as three point shooting guys often get hosed), but there's tons of upside here for sure. One way to do it is just grab all of Cleveland's points by playing Lebron AND Love. Up to you!

An interesting punt: JJ Hickson. Too many minutes on these ridiculously low prices, if King Joffrey remains out.
 

CENTER

Andre Drummond - FD 9300 DK 8900
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 41.02 DK Proj. Pts - 41.79
What on Earth is going on with Andre Drummond? How does one man get 29 rebounds in a single game? He had 13 fewer rebounds than the Pacers' entire team. Drummond is in a contract year and playing with his absolute max effort, and in a fast paced game with the Suns, literally anything seems possible. Again, Drummond is averaging 20 and 20 this season. Compare his game log to any of the other top tier price guys and explain to me why he isn't a $10,000 player on these sites. You can't? You can't. I love him in every format, though it might be tough to get him in with how the prices shake out. That leads me to...

Festus Ezeli - FD 3800 DK 4500
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 22.01 DK Proj. Pts - 22.38
Ezeli is playing hardly any minutes, even as a starter, but it's hard to not call him a safe play on these prices. Ezeli is a block/rebound/put back machine, and is a legit fantasy point per minute guy. He's going to get 20+ minutes. This means he's almost assuredly going to pay 5+ points per dollar on these prices, especially on FanDuel, where his price hasn't really moved whatsoever. Meanwhile, the Denver front court is having all sorts of problems - Jokic is banged up, Joffrey is out, and they still don't know how they want to deploy Hickson and Faried. On an uncertain day at the position, I love to grab Ezeli and get away from the position cheaply.

Jordan Hill - FD 4700 DK 4300
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 24.21 DK Proj. Pts - 24.67
Another big upside play, though I'm not sure you can really grab him for safety purposes. Hill went off for 16/10 against the Celtics, and if you're new to daily fantasy basketball, Hill sustained long stretches with the Lakers where he was a must play on salaries significantly higher than these. Now, he won't have incredible usage rates playing alongside Paul George, he really doesn't need to given the other little things he can do. Whiteside is a fairly tough match-up for anyone, but on these prices, Hill really doesn't need to do much. If you're following along at home, you'll notice that Ezeli and Hill are priced in opposite ways on FD and DK. A great way to hedge tonight would be to play Easy E on FD, and Hill on DK. This all assumes that Mahinmi is out again.

On DraftKings: Our system just loves Dwight Howard. Underpriced. It also thinks Whiteside is interesting as an upside-only play against the Pacers' undermanned front-court. Remember when Andre Drummond grabbed 29 rebounds against these guys a few games ago? Yeah, that could be Whiteside here. Or he could no show again - your guess is as good as mine!

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