Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 11/1/15

The NBA is back! And honestly, I feel like if never really left us. The Finals seem like yesterday, the off season saw a ton of moves and we are ready to jump back into another season. We'll be bringing you daily picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and more. It's going to be a great season.

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Quick note on these picks: There is a lot to guess at to start the season. Tons of players have switched uniforms. Teams have slightly changed their approach. Rookies are in the mix. New starting lineups abound. It's somewhat tough sledding until we see some games and get a sense of how teams are going to use players. That being said, we've gone over the data and made a number of adjustments to our system in order to get things as close as humanly (and algorithmic-ally) possible. Our projection system handles the little bits of pricing and projecting differences. That being said, for this opening slate I think you are very much going to be taking a stars and punts approach.

POINT GUARD

Russell Westbrook - FD 11200 DK 10300
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 47.6 DK Proj. Pts - 49.19
I'm putting him on here because of all the top end expensive players on this slate, I see Westbrook as the safest of the bunch. There are a lot ways to middle your way through lineups on this slate, so you may not end up getting his salary in there, but if I was going to go all the way up, he'd be my guy. The worry would be that coming off the crazy double overtime marathon his minutes run a little lower tonight as he basically played 1.5 games against the Magic. But if anyone can withstand this kind of beating it's Westbrook who at times appears super human. If the Thunder choose to limit Durant a little here Westbrook starts to look even better though and we could see shades of what he did end of year last season.

Michael Carter-Williams - FD 7000 DK 6700
Opponent - TOR FD Proj. Pts - 34.8 DK Proj. Pts - 35.47
The Bucks are going to be a theme of these picks. They have a couple of guys seeing big minutes who are in solid spots today. The Raptors are playing the fastest PACE in the league in the early going which is a great sign for the volume of the Bucks. Simply speaking, the faster the other team gets their business done, the more opportunities the opponent has. It's not a perfect equation, but it's a place to start. Carter-Williams has played big minutes for Milwaukee and he's the type of point guard who contributes in just about every major category. Though he can't shoot from outside, every other part of the stat sheet is there for him.

Emmanuel Mudiay - FD 5500 DK 5800
Opponent - OKC FD Proj. Pts - 29.98 DK Proj. Pts - 31.21
His minutes got a little buzzed off last game, but I still think dude is coming well cheap enough to consider in cash games or tournaments. Mudiay struggled with turnovers in the first game, but even with the mistakes has been fantasy competent in both of his first two. There will be a game when he puts the scoring and dishing together to totally crush these tags. The Nuggets have every reason to just keep playing him and he will hit the big time in points one of these days soon.

SHOOTING GUARD

Giannis Antetokounmpo - FD 6500 DK 6100
Opponent - TOR FD Proj. Pts - 29.7 DK Proj. Pts - 30.75
After serving his one game suspension for antics in the playoffs last season, Alphabet was back with a fury in his first game. Jason Kidd ran him out there for extended minutes and Giannis obliged with a 27/9/2 line with 3 steals thrown in there to really take his line into the stratosphere. Antetokounmpo (name I use my auto-text expanded plugin for) is one of those guys who contributes in so many ways the cash game floor is always solid as long as the price is right. Tonight is one of those nights. While Toronto is a good defensive team and are a favorite in this game, I think the minutes are there for Giannis and the price still allows some flexibility.

Danny Green - FD 4100 DK 4600
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 21.32 DK Proj. Pts - 23.95
While he isn't option number 1,2,3 or 4 on the Spurs' first team, I don't mind Green's prices for cash games for a couple of reasons. The minutes have been there for him since the beginning of the season and he's done enough to not completely zero out your shooting guard slot. He rebounds enough to not totally rely on his scoring and will throw a steal or two in every once in a while. And on the off chance you get a hot shooting night then he will crush these prices (not likely, but worth it when it happens). Again, I'm mostly looking his way because of the pricing.

Update: With Howard out tonight, James Harden gets a bump here.

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SMALL FORWARD

Kawhi Leonard - FD 8000 DK 7800
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 35.29 DK Proj. Pts - 36.85
Even with the addition of LaMarcus Aldridge, the Spurs are very much Kawhi's team. He's arguably the best two way player in basketball and in what should be a closer game tonight, Kawhi figures to see his full run of minutes (or as many as one can realistically project minutes for the Spurs, which is never an easy thing). The Celtics play at one of the fastest paces in the league which should lead to plenty of volume going the other way for the Spurs. The big stat for Kawhi is how many shots he's getting up this season. In the first two games he's averaging 19 shots per game which is a massive increase over the 12 per game he averaged last season. As a scorer his game is complete and I think you could see his price continue to rise if that he's going to get that kind of usage.

DeMarre Carroll - FD 6300 DK 5500
Opponent - MIL FD Proj. Pts - 28.12 DK Proj. Pts - 30.34
Dude's been a minute's monster since joining the Raptors in the off season. That's fine by us as he's another super high floor guy considering he contributes in just about every conceivable way on the floor. He's averaging 18/7/3 in the first two games and I don't see many reasons why that won't continue (or even improve) as the season goes on. This should be a high-scoring game against the Bucks and I think the prices throughout really make it a cash game play as well as one to stack on the chance it turns into a shootout.

Khris Middleton - FD 5900 DK 5500
Opponent - TOR FD Proj. Pts - 27.35 DK Proj. Pts - 29.13
He, like some of his other Buck buddies, is on here primarily because the minutes have been there more than most other guys in his price range. Now look, we've been down this Milwaukee Minute Road before in other seasons. The run can get jacked around from time to time, but we use the information we are given, and early signs pointing towards the starters getting out there for the long term. Middleton isn't the safest guy in the world because he relies so much on scoring to get his. That's a risky prospect because if the shot isn't falling he doesn't have a lot of other ways to go to accrue points. But he's still coming on the cheaper side of things.

POWER FORWARD

Marvin Williams - FD 4500 DK 3900
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 22.7 DK Proj. Pts - 24.79
He is criminally under priced on FanDuel at this point. Dude's been logging major minutes in the starting four slot and making the freaking most of it. He's been a double-double in the first two games and if this kind of production keeps up he won't be in this price range for long. I'd venture to say he's a must play from a punt standpoint as there are simply too many minutes, scoring and rebounding for a guy in this price range. He could even stand to see a dip in run and still be a fantastic play.

Serge Ibaka - FD 6900 DK 6200
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 31.7 DK Proj. Pts - 33.37
Let me start by saying that power forward seems like one of the most difficult positions on the whole slate. It's just riddled with players who don't get full run of minutes, are in tough matchups, or both. What Ibaka has going for him today is he's playing a Denver team who was among the worst in the league in defending opposing big men last season. They are super soft on the interior and Ibaka could dominate the boards. What he has going against him is he isn't in the top two or three of options for the Thunder when they are on offense. This can lead to some rough games if he isn't scoring as he'll need to rely on everything else. I think the matchup and the price are fine on Ibaka mostly because I dislike most of the rest of the position.

CENTER

The only position I dislike more than power forward is center. This is a rough one.

Zaza Pachulia - FD 5300 DK 5300
Opponent - LAL FD Proj. Pts - 25.64 DK Proj. Pts - 26.06
I really think you are going to need to speculate at center tonight. Committing any kind of real dollars here doesn't make a ton of sense (though there is a case for the guy below). Zaza's minutes weren't there in a blowout loss to the Clippers, but he stands to see closer to a full run against the Lakers tonight. Though they have Hibbert down low now, these are still the Lakers. Zaza does has double-double potential in the right type of game, though he typically needs every last possible minute to get there.

Greg Monroe - FD 8300 DK 7900
Opponent - TOR FD Proj. Pts - 35.02 DK Proj. Pts - 35.56
Oof, I really don't love it in any other way except a potential game flow that could pay dividends. While Monroe has been getting the heavy minutes in his new digs with the Bucks, the Raptors have been known to defend the interior pretty well. But this game looks to be high-scoring, Monroe's clearly adjusting to the Bucks' style of play with a fantastic game in the opener and a solid one in game two. Our system isn't gaga here, but he does have one of the higher floors at center.

Clint Capela - FD 4500 DK 4000
Opponent - MIA FD Proj. Pts - 15.28 DK Proj. Pts - 15.53
Terrence Jones is going to sit tonight and the Rockets are really low on big men. I'm speculating some that Capela will see some extra run because they'll need to throw some bigger bodies in there against the Heat. Keep an eye on how the Rockets decide to start the game and how they may attack the Heat. Update: Dwight Howard is out tonight. As is Jones. Capela gets a big bump.

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