Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and DraftPot - 10/30/15

The NBA is back! And honestly, I feel like if never really left us. The Finals seem like yesterday, the off season saw a ton of moves and we are ready to jump back into another season. We'll be bringing you daily picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and more. It's going to be a great season.

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Quick note on these picks: There is a lot to guess at to start the season. Tons of players have switched uniforms. Teams have slightly changed their approach. Rookies are in the mix. New starting lineups abound. It's somewhat tough sledding until we see some games and get a sense of how teams are going to use players. That being said, we've gone over the data and made a number of adjustments to our system in order to get things as close as humanly (and algorithmic-ally) possibel. Our projection system handles the little bits of pricing and projecting differences. That being said, for this opening slate I think you are very much going to be taking a stars and punts approach.

POINT GUARD

Russell Westbrook - FD 10800 DK 10100
Opponent - ORL FD Proj. Pts - 48.68 DK Proj. Pts - 50.36
While one game does not a season make, it was interesting to see how Durant and Westbrook coexisted in the first game. Remember that last season Westbrook went into the phone booth and came out Superman for the second half of the season when Durant went down. But with Durant back, Westbrook still led the squad in shots. Part of that stemmed from Kawhi's defensive glove-ness on KD. But it stands to reason that this is Westbrook's squad now. I like the price though one thing that buoyed Westbrook's line last season was his crazy rebounding numbers out of the point guard position.

Damian Lillard - FD 9100 DK 9300
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 39.3 DK Proj. Pts - 42.56
The Blazers are now Lillard's (and to some degree McCollum's) team. In the first game of the season those two combined to take 43 of the team's 88 shots. That's a crazy percentage of the team's overall production and honestly, I think it keeps up. The Blazers have little in the way of scoring after these two and Lillard should lead the charge most nights. He's still willing to distribute (putting up 11 assists in the first game) and this game against the Suns should go off at a fast pace. The Suns played breakneck last season and should this season as well. Lillard is expensive but has a high floor based on his role in the offense.

Brandon Knight - FD 6400 DK 6600
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 32.7 DK Proj. Pts - 34.91
Speaking of the Blazer/Suns game, I like getting some players going the other way as well. Knight was fine enough in the first game, putting up the most shots on the team, playing 37 minutes and a slightly better showing from behind the arc would have made the line look much better. This game has one of the highest expected totals on the board with both teams somewhat locked into their starters' run. I like Knight's FanDuel price most of all.

Emmanuel Mudiay - FD 5500 DK 5700
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 30.31 DK Proj. Pts - 31.59
Bad news: He turned the ball over 11 times in his first NBA game. The good news is everything else about his first game line was solid with a 17/9/5 final and paying his salary. I can't imagine the turnovers sustain, but the other numbers could. Minnesota isn't a great defensive team and Mudiay is unchallenged as the starter.

SHOOTING GUARD

C.J. McCollum - FD 6000 DK 6400
Opponent - PHX FD Proj. Pts - 25.25 DK Proj. Pts - 27.31
He was a popular play on the first night of the season and dude more than delivered. He had a first quarter to remember, shooting the lights out of the place on his way to a 36/6/1 line. Now understand, he isn't going to shoot 67% from beyond the arc every night. So we can temper our expectations some there. That being said, he did take 22 shots over the course of the game and that kind of volume is going to pay big for the new look (much worse) Blazers. C.J. had a price jump, but his minutes and usage still make him a bargain.

Eric Bledsoe - FD 7100 DK 7400
Opponent - POR FD Proj. Pts - 34.57 DK Proj. Pts - 36.02
It isn't a mistake that we've already seen four players from this game in the first two positions worth of write ups. If Bledsoe's minutes can push into the mid 30's then these prices are right in the value zone. Bledsoe offers just enough production across the different areas of the stat sheet that his floor remains high enough.

Klay Thompson - FD 7100 DK 7200
Opponent - HOU FD Proj. Pts - 31.04 DK Proj. Pts - 34.27
The Houston/ Golden State projects for the highest on the board for good reason. These two teams are offensive juggernauts and this should be a fun one to watch. Last season the Rockets allowed greater than league average scoring to the opposing shooting guard position. Klay had a quiet opening night, but that had more to do with Steph going lights out and stealing the whole show. The thing with projecting Warriors' minutes is they are so good, often the starters will get yanked into the fourth quarter. That shouldn't happen tonight and Klay projects as a nice points/$ play at the position.

Consider Danny Green and Rodney Hood on the cheaper side of things

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SMALL FORWARD

Gordon Hayward - FD 7200 DK 6900
Opponent - PHI FD Proj. Pts - 32.28 DK Proj. Pts - 34.05
It can be tough to figure where the Jazz will get their scoring from on a given night. The have a couple of different weapons even though Hayward is arguably their best player. He's certainly their most well-rounded one and last year averaged 19/4/4 with a couple of steals thrown in. Where we want to but a guy like Hayward is against faster-paced teams that are defensively challenged. Hey Sixers! Though they were league average against small forwards with scoring, they allowed more than average assists and rebounds. I like Hayward in this play and suspect he isn't that highly owned which could offer some nice separation in tournaments.

Marcus Morris - FD 5600 DK 5100
Opponent - CHI FD Proj. Pts - 26.72 DK Proj. Pts - 28.74
I'll hand it to Stan Van Gundy, he's made it pretty clear how he's going to use his starters this season. And what he plans to do is play them a ton of minutes. Three of the starters (Morris, Drummond and KCP) are averaging 36.5 minutes per game. That kind of run for Morris is fantastic and about as good as you'll see from someone in his price tier. He's averaging 16/8/3 in the first two games and the price hasn't come close to catching up.

Nikola Mirotic - FD 6000 DK 6600
Opponent - DET FD Proj. Pts - 27.67 DK Proj. Pts - 29.86
He's been fantastic in the first two games of the season as he's transitioned perfectly to the starting four for the Bulls. Mirotic can spread the floor more than the old Gasol/ Noah tandem and the Bulls are taking advantage of his skillset. He saw 30 minutes in the second game after getting in a little foul trouble against the Cavs in game one. Mirotic is averaging a cool 16/8 though he's shooting real hot from three (58%) which will surely come down some. But his price hasn't caught up with his starting role and really he needs only about 30 minutes to play as a value on this slate.

POWER FORWARD

It's going to be real easy to go cheap at power forward today.
Julius Randle - FD 4700 DK 5200
Opponent - SAC FD Proj. Pts - 26.33 DK Proj. Pts - 26.82
A couple of things to really love about Randle's first game back after getting injured to literally start the season last year. First off, he logged thirty minutes at the four which bodes well for him going forward in terms of run. The second is he was wildly productive in that time double-doubling with a 15/10 line. That kind of production crushes his prices. The Kings are a below average defensive team and this game has a big total. While the Lakers are dogs, it's not enough to scare me off Randle's prices here as he continues on the comeback trail.

Joffrey Lauvergne - FD 3700 DK 4200
Opponent - MIN FD Proj. Pts - 21.72 DK Proj. Pts - 22.26
I'm putting him on here because he's a per-minute beast. It's just that minutes aren't always there. King Joffrey got the start in game one and yet logged only 22 minutes. But it didn't take long for him to put up an 11/7 line which looks fantastic when you figure he's coming at punt prices. The T-Wolves were brutalized down low last season and got crushed by opposing power forwards and centers alike. They are a slightly different squad this season, though I don't see the numbers changing too much. Now if Joffrey could get in the high twenties in minutes and we are really cooking.

Marvin Williams - FD 4300 DK 3500
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 22.7 DK Proj. Pts - 24.79
Cody Zeller - FD 4000 DK 4200
Opponent - ATL FD Proj. Pts - 22.05 DK Proj. Pts - 22.4
Though they are playing/ vying for the same position, both logged heavy minutes in the first game with Marvin playing up in the high 30's. Both come cheap enough to offer high floors relative to price. And though Charlotte is brutal to watch and I'll probably avoid this game on League Pass, both come cheap enough. Williams put up a double/ double in the first game and projects well here. Zeller, if he still sees 30 minutes a game regardless of role, is another interesting value play.

Consider Markieff Morris if you want to spend a little more.

 

 

CENTER

Jahlil Okafor - FD 5800 DK 6000
Opponent - UTA FD Proj. Pts - 28.49 DK Proj. Pts - 28.92
Okafor was a revelation in his first game for the Sixers. He beasted on the Celtics putting up 26 points along with 7 rebounds and a couple of blocks. If it weren't for the eight turnovers, this line really would have been in the stratosphere. But the most interesting thing was how much the Sixers played him as he logged 38 minutes. Philly's been stingy with how they use their assets which can kill the top end upside. But if they are going to stay committed to Okafor, Noel and a couple of other pieces then we could be looking at some real fantasy goodness.

Karl-Anthony Towns - FD 6100 DK 5900
Opponent - DEN FD Proj. Pts - 30.68 DK Proj. Pts - 31.16
Another highly-touted rookie who made a strong first impression in his first game. Towns went 14/12 against the Lakers while playing minutes in the thirties. The Timberwolves will be committed to Towns' development which should has his minutes trending positive for the season. That's always been an issue with the T-Wolves' big men, wondering just how much they were going to play. But that shouldn't be the case here and the Nuggets were one of the worst teams in the league against opposing big men last season.

Jonas Valanciunas - FD 6200 DK 6200
Opponent - BOS FD Proj. Pts - 29.95 DK Proj. Pts - 30.46
He played a ton of minutes in the first game. And if I could trust Jonas' minutes were going to be in the mid to low 30's then I'd buy all day at these prices. But for those of you who've been down the NBA DFS road before know that it's tough to trust Valanciunas' run. There will be games when the minutes simply aren't there and he crushes your soul. It might be a different story this season, but I'm taking a wait and see approach.

Strongly consider Demarcus Cousins on the more expensive side of things.

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